iPhone numbers in - not so hot

4349 Views 37 Replies 18 Participants Last post by MACSPECTRUM, Aug 17, 2007

Script Kiddie

Discussion Starter · Jul 24, 2007

The sharp spike and fall in iPhone demand could put a lot of "cold" in Rogers "feet".

Snippet from Bloomberg:

"CIBC World Markets said demand for the iPhone has had a ``significant decline'' in the past 10 days and that Apple and AT&T may try to boost demand by increasing their marketing efforts.

``We have noticed decent inventories at stores, and thin demand at best,'' analyst Ittai Kidron wrote in a note. ``Among the stores we visited, most visitors were not looking at the device, and only a very small subset bought it.''

CIBC's Kidron also wrote that the iPhone, which he initially viewed as a negative for Research In Motion Ltd., the maker of the BlackBerry smartphone, may instead be a positive.

``The iPhone has significantly increased awareness for e- mail devices,'' Kidron wrote. That's ``positive mainly for RIM, the brand of choice for e-mail devices.''

Kidron, who is based in New York, rates Research In Motion at ``sector perform.''

1 - 20 of 38 Posts

MannyP Design

· #2 · Jul 24, 2007

No actual sales figures or stats? Did they expect the sales drive to continue as high as it original started? I believe the initial numbers for sales were somewhere around 700,000 iPhones sold with the first couple of days, or so.

A lot of people have stated on various discussion boards that they are waiting for the next iteration of iPhone. Those who have bought one most seem to concur that it's a great device in spite of being first-generation.

But maybe it has something to do with AT&T... a lot of people want nothing to do with them.

HowEver

· #3 · Jul 24, 2007

`Among the stores we visited, most visitors were not looking at the device, and only a very small subset bought it.''

I don't think I've seen a more meaningless report recently.

Script Kiddie

Discussion Starter · #4 · Jul 24, 2007

MannyP Design said:
No actual sales figures or stats? Did they expect the sales drive to continue as high as it original started? I believe the initial numbers for sales were somewhere around 700,000 iPhones sold with the first couple of days, or so.

AT&T Inc., the largest U.S. phone company and sole service provider for the combination iPod media player and mobile phone, said in a statement today that it activated 146,000 of the phones in the first two days of the sales agreement.

Script Kiddie

Discussion Starter · #5 · Jul 24, 2007

HowEver said:
I don't think I've seen a more meaningless report recently.

Yes, not exactly pithy.

However, HowEver ( ha ha wanted to type that for a long time) the observation does contrast rather starkly to the lineups and buying craze of only a couple of weeks ago.

MannyP Design

· #6 · Jul 24, 2007

Script Kiddie said:
AT&T Inc., the largest U.S. phone company and sole service provider for the combination iPod media player and mobile phone, said in a statement today that it activated 146,000 of the phones in the first two days of the sales agreement.

Yes, but they also suffered major activation problems. Some people reported waiting days before it followed through... others cancelled their AT&T contract for the sole purpose of just having the iPhone.

Script Kiddie

Discussion Starter · #7 · Jul 24, 2007

MannyP Design said:
Yes, but they also suffered major activation problems.

They said about 2% had the activation problem.

ehMax

· #8 · Jul 24, 2007

Report and speculation mean nothing until Apple releases their sales numbers.
If Apple has not stock... then their forecasting is criticized. If they are making enough to keep up with demand, and they actually have stock, then they assume low demand.

Script Kiddie

Discussion Starter · #9 · Jul 24, 2007

Its not speculation, AT&T's figures released today say 146,000.
Don't shoot the messenger

There may be minor corrections due to those who bought but did not activate but I suspect the 146,000 changes by less than 10% either way.

macpablo

· #10 · Jul 24, 2007

what do you expect when you don't release it to the neighbors north of the 49th

ehMax

· #11 · Jul 24, 2007

Script Kiddie said:
Its not speculation, AT&T's figures released today say 146,000.
Don't shoot the messenger
There may be minor corrections due to those who bought but did not activate but I suspect the 146,000 changes by less than 10% either way.

"AT&T Activated". In the next continuing sentence, they talk about "their store traffic". The market is reacting, but I wouldn't be surprised if these are exclusively AT&T's numbers.

Still, until Apple releases its iPhone sales numbers, it means nothing.

All I know is, I'm buying some stock today.

CubaMark

· #12 · Jul 24, 2007

Right. For *complete* clarity's sake: the report is for the quarter that ended 2 days after the iPod went on sale, and covers only *activations*. There were doubtless tens of thousands (hundreds of thousands?) of activations in the following quarter.

ehMax has it: wait until tomorrow, and Apple's sales figures. *Those* are the numbers that matter.

M

ShawnKing

· #13 · Jul 24, 2007

CubaMark said:
*Those* are the numbers that matter.

Eve those numbers won't matter much. Keep in mind, they will be for just 2 days - not much to build forecasts on.

Also, all of these pundits are comparing AT&T's numbers of activations with completely made up numbers from various analysts and other specious sources.

If AT&T had predicted they would activate 100,000 the first 2 days and then announced these numbers, "we'd" all be saying, "Wow! They beat their projections by almost 50%! What a great day!"

But, because various people were unquestioningly tossing numbers around like 200,000 sold, 500,000 sold, even *700,000* sold, we see the actual numbers and are disappointed.

Greg H

· #14 · Jul 24, 2007

The iPhone is being percieved by the technical talking heads as a "consumer novelty item". Under that moniker, the iPhone may be a little expensive for the consumer level crowd. As I've said in another thread, the in the states, there doesn't appear to be a great deal of interest in the Apple stores. I was in two Apple Stores in Florida and most of the time I was the only person playing with the phone despite their being 10 more units on the table to play with. Based on what I heard around those tables, people are saying they'll wait for the second generation.
As far as the business community goes, forget it, the "Crackberry" rules. Apple's decision to use the slowest data network and the obvious inferiority of the email function compared to the global RIM network, makes it a no brainer for the IT crowd.
Don't get me wrong, if Steve Jobs manages to dictate the rate plans to Rogers, I'm there to buy one of these novelties.

Brian Scully

· #15 · Jul 24, 2007

Based on CIBC's past of banking scandals

Script Kiddie said:
The sharp spike and fall in iPhone demand could put a lot of "cold" in Rogers "feet".

Snippet from Bloomberg:

"CIBC World Markets said demand for the iPhone has had a ``significant decline'' in the past 10 days and that Apple and AT&T may try to boost demand by increasing their marketing efforts.

``We have noticed decent inventories at stores, and thin demand at best,'' analyst Ittai Kidron wrote in a note. ``Among the stores we visited, most visitors were not looking at the device, and only a very small subset bought it.''

CIBC's Kidron also wrote that the iPhone, which he initially viewed as a negative for Research In Motion Ltd., the maker of the BlackBerry smartphone, may instead be a positive.

``The iPhone has significantly increased awareness for e- mail devices,'' Kidron wrote. That's ``positive mainly for RIM, the brand of choice for e-mail devices.''

Kidron, who is based in New York, rates Research In Motion at ``sector perform.''

I would have some doubt of this person's creditentals . I was not aware that CIBC World Wide followed AAPL I have never heard Kidron quoted before

ehMax

· #16 · Jul 24, 2007

I'd bet $10 that tomorrow Apple Releases iPhone sales numbers to date and that they'll be impressive.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

imachungry

· #17 · Jul 24, 2007

ehMax said:
I'd bet $10 that tomorrow Apple Releases iPhone sales numbers to date and that they'll be impressive.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

I'm with you.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/07/24/att-iphone-update-markets-equity-cx_er_0724markets26.html

Brian Scully

· #18 · Jul 25, 2007

Not really EhMax

ehMax said:
I'd bet $10 that tomorrow Apple Releases iPhone sales numbers to date and that they'll be impressive.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

If you are wrong you are out $10 VBG

Sorry John but I could not resist!!

I agree that the Apple figures will be much different than AT&T's
I am also sure that Steve is on the phone explaining how Marketing is done in the Apple world and its not about releasing figures the day before APPL's that reflect poorly on Apple Inc.

Stock took an almost $9 dollar hit today but bounded back almost 2 dollars in after hours trading .
..........brian

milhaus

· #19 · Jul 25, 2007

Greg H said:
The iPhone is being percieved by the technical talking heads as a "consumer novelty item". Under that moniker, the iPhone may be a little expensive for the consumer level crowd. As I've said in another thread, the in the states, there doesn't appear to be a great deal of interest in the Apple stores. I was in two Apple Stores in Florida and most of the time I was the only person playing with the phone despite their being 10 more units on the table to play with.

Wow, a sample size of two leads you to conclusions that are completely contrary to all existing sales figures. Remember, the Apple Stores have one of the highest revenue per sq. foot in all of retail. If you ever visit an Apple Store here, you'd find them always busy, and every time I'm in New York or California, they've been busy. There you go; my sample size of 6 stores beats your two, hands down . . .

UnleashedLive

· #20 · Jul 25, 2007

Its not speculation, AT&T's figures released today say 146,000.

These are the Q2 numbers. BUT Q2 ended a day and a half after releasing the iphone. 146,000 activations in less than 48hrs with activation issues is really freakin' good.

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