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Old May 4th, 2011, 02:41 PM   #51
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It's only been a day MacDoc. When you come back from your new home in Australia after a few months, you won't recognize the place.
Haven't you heard? Harper has promised not to make any radical changes.



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Old May 4th, 2011, 02:49 PM   #52
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^ Picture I took on a nice trip to Ottawa this past winter.
Sooooo close ehMax. All you needed to do was tuck in that thumb, angle your hand up a couple of inches, move your elbow back a few inches and then forcefully drive that fist forward -- and you would have been my hero!
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Old May 4th, 2011, 02:52 PM   #53
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Haven't you heard? Harper has promised not to make any radical changes.
Radical is relative. He just needs to balance things a touch by eliminating some of the radical programs enacted by previous socialist governments -- like universal health care.
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Old May 4th, 2011, 02:57 PM   #54
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Radical is relative. He just needs to balance things a touch by eliminating some of the radical programs enacted by previous socialist governments -- like universal health care.
right. That should easily ensure his re-election.



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Old May 4th, 2011, 03:02 PM   #55
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right. That should easily ensure his re-election.
Oh I fully believe Harper won't go after health care. At least not directly. Even with a majority, it's too politically dangerous.

What he will do is what Chretien and Martin did in the 90s and just amp that up. The key is leaving room for the provinces to cut their health budgets and not go after them with the Canada Health Act when they experiment with various two tier solutions. Death by a thousand cuts so to speak. But he'll be able to say that the erosion of universality wasn't his doing.
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Old May 4th, 2011, 03:27 PM   #56
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Oh I fully believe Harper won't go after health care. At least not directly. Even with a majority, it's too politically dangerous.

What he will do is what Chretien and Martin did in the 90s and just amp that up. The key is leaving room for the provinces to cut their health budgets and not go after them with the Canada Health Act when they experiment with various two tier solutions. Death by a thousand cuts so to speak. But he'll be able to say that the erosion of universality wasn't his doing.
Sounds like a reasonable approach.
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Old May 4th, 2011, 03:29 PM   #57
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Oh I fully believe Harper won't go after health care. At least not directly. Even with a majority, it's too politically dangerous.

What he will do is what Chretien and Martin did in the 90s and just amp that up. The key is leaving room for the provinces to cut their health budgets and not go after them with the Canada Health Act when they experiment with various two tier solutions. Death by a thousand cuts so to speak. But he'll be able to say that the erosion of universality wasn't his doing.
this was sort of what I was thinking when Flaherty was going across the country selling the provinces on his HST deal. More revenue at the provincial level, = look we're cutting taxes at the federal level!



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Old May 4th, 2011, 03:33 PM   #58
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right. That should easily ensure his re-election.
Assuming the economy does well and Harper keeps things on track, I think his hopes for re-election look quite strong at this point. But, that's only a day in.

A few macrotrends in the Conservatives favour:

- Quebec - With only a small number of seats in Quebec, the Conservatives have little to lose by this fickle electorate.
- Atlantic Canada - The Conservatives did well here and voters in the Atlantic tend to be quite reliable
- Census Update of Seats - BC and Alberta will receive a bunch of new ridings in the next election, which are likely to mostly go Conservative.
- Liberal Party implosion - The Liberals can't rebuilt their party by the next election. They are broke and finances are not likely to improve. The Liberals are best to stick with the existing seats and build outwards and not focus on the whole country.
- Green Party - With a seat in Parliament, the Green Party will be far more visible next election. I think their support base will go up a few points, which mostly drains votes from NDP and Liberals.
- Loyal Supporters - The Conservatives have scored some very consistent numbers for the last 3 to 4 elections and their support base stands behind Harper. I think that's unlikely to change.

At this point in time, I think Harper is in a really good position.
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Old May 4th, 2011, 03:33 PM   #59
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Sounds like a reasonable approach.
As a committed Straussian, the "noble lie" is central to Harper's methodology.
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Old May 4th, 2011, 03:47 PM   #60
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Assuming the economy does well and Harper keeps things on track, I think his hopes for re-election look quite strong at this point. But, that's only a day in.

A few macrotrends in the Conservatives favour:

- Quebec - With only a small number of seats in Quebec, the Conservatives have little to lose by this fickle electorate.
- Atlantic Canada - The Conservatives did well here and voters in the Atlantic tend to be quite reliable
- Census Update of Seats - BC and Alberta will receive a bunch of new ridings in the next election, which are likely to mostly go Conservative.
- Liberal Party implosion - The Liberals can't rebuilt their party by the next election. They are broke and finances are not likely to improve. The Liberals are best to stick with the existing seats and build outwards and not focus on the whole country.
- Green Party - With a seat in Parliament, the Green Party will be far more visible next election. I think their support base will go up a few points, which mostly drains votes from NDP and Liberals.
- Loyal Supporters - The Conservatives have scored some very consistent numbers for the last 3 to 4 elections and their support base stands behind Harper. I think that's unlikely to change.

At this point in time, I think Harper is in a really good position.
Way too early to even speculate on 2015, .... but here goes.

- Harper's vote total only went up by a point and half this election, but because of vote splitting, primarily in Ontario, he was able to garner 24 more seats out of that tiny increase. If Layton does a good job in the next four years it's quite possible that vote splitting will not be as big a factor next time out. If the Liberals don't resurrect themselves (and that will be difficult for them) and even 10% of the 60% who didn't vote for the Cons decides to back the non-Con frontrunner, the NDP will be the first past the post beneficiary. Harper better start early with the character assassination TV ads.

- There has been no government leader in history who has not eventually worn out their welcome with the public. In 2015 Harper will have been PM for an awfully long time. Even if he manages to get through the next 4 years without power-mongers and hacks within his government succumbing to greed and causing scandal, I suspect his brand will be looking more than a little shopworn by that time.
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