I think it is purely geopolitics, even when other things become inter-twined. Outside of politics, basic wealth issues (including agri-subsidies) and disease are tops. Water will be increasingly important, but also solvable within an energy/greenhouse gas framework. However, any given stress can be used as an excuse or labeled as the Reason.
Geopolitics is what can ruin everything and whatever reason is attached in political speeches, or by pundits and conspiracists is secondary.
Geopolitics can indeed ruin everything. It is also what, if anything, will save us from screwing ourselves out of a habitable planet. We'll be needing an awful lot of people cooperating with one another. That, or we'll need to have an awful lot less people scrambling and clawing to get to the top of the dung heap.
Droughts to set off exodus
West told to prepare for influx of people escaping environmental catastrophes
Dec. 15, 2006. 01:00 AM
Canada and other wealthy nations should prepare for a flood of environmental refugees, and treat them the same as those who flee political danger, international experts say.
The number of people fleeing the spread of deserts or climate-change impacts such as drought and flooding is likely to hit 50 million within a decade and soar to between 135 million and 200 million by 2050, Zafar Adeel, a director of the United Nations University, said in an interview yesterday from Frankfurt, Germany while en route to a conference on the issue in Algiers, Algeria.
"Regardless of what the exact number is," it will swamp the current global total of 19 million refugees from war, genocide and all other threats, said Adeel, who heads the university's International Network on Water, Environment and Health, based in Hamilton.
While the problem grows, support for solutions is falling, he said. Funding for the UN's land-degradation program, which is already inadequate, dropped by 15 per cent this year.
You'll find I vote I public polls ( check the political polls )- Sinc I just don't do it early and in this particular case I'm not quite sure which will be the most difficult challenge.
I'm like others leaning towards climate change but the geopolitics of fossil fuel - may actually be the most problematic to deal with if only because of the political aspect.
The others HAVE technical solutions tho they all may be "formidable".....the geopolitics of oil have a very violent history which seems to repeat in lesser or greater patterns with humanity.
They are all intertwined to some degree but fossil fuel politics might just be the mot difficult - even within Canada itself.
I tried to craft the poll so there were 4 reasonable questions and it's interesting to see the split.
In writing this I think it resolved in my mind that while I feel climate change is the largest scale threat, that fossil fuel political issues underpinning that will prove the most intractable.
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