: Something wicked this ways comes......again.

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Sep 24th, 2005, 10:26 PM
Just caught it on CNN and had a look - YESTERDAY the Atlantic was clear......today there are two or THREE potential "named storms" brewing about 7 days out. :eek:


Look particularly at the one on the right - definitely organizing.

The one just north of Cuba is quite disorganized but then .....so was Katrina early on.
The Mid-Atlantic is small but definitely showing rotation.


for reference here is where Katrina fired up.


and Rita


Wonder if Cuba has a secret hurricane factory..... :eek: ;)

Sep 24th, 2005, 10:28 PM

Sep 24th, 2005, 10:32 PM
With a title like that I thought you were about to launch into another one of your diatribes about Bush & his neo-con cronies :D . On a more serious note this just sucks or blows, whichever.

Sep 24th, 2005, 10:34 PM
BTW it's the three across the Atlantic midline that are of concern. The one up north is moving away.

Sep 24th, 2005, 10:50 PM
According to the Hurricane Centre it's that depression just north of Dominican Republic that has some interest.

Sep 24th, 2005, 11:06 PM
Yes that's exactly where the other two monsters launched from.
The other two are more distant threats.


BTW on Bush....he's doing a FINE job.........disaffecting some 60% of his fellow Americans. :D 'Bout time the wake up call came. ;)
No need to state the obvious.

Sep 25th, 2005, 08:11 AM
Three of the four predictors are above-average for storms. Therefore, we are calling for a very active October with an NTC of about 200 percent of the climatological average. In round numbers, we are forecasting 3 named storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 intense hurricane and an NTC of 35 for October.

200%....that''s even higher than the 175% overall for the season......stay tuned. :(

Sep 25th, 2005, 08:25 AM
Unnerving to say the least. :-(

Sep 25th, 2005, 10:38 AM
Only because U.S. healthcare policies kill far more people than hurricanes ever will...

With a title like that I thought you were about to launch into another one of your diatribes about Bush & his neo-con cronies :D . On a more serious note this just sucks or blows, whichever.

Sep 26th, 2005, 11:33 AM
Something brewing south of Cuba - Dominican Republic as someone mentioned.


The Atlantic is clear otherwise except for the eastern region to the south off the African coast tho the tropical storm centre is not reporting it.

The Doug
Sep 26th, 2005, 01:05 PM
Slam (http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/09/23/climate.scientist.reut/index.html) away, Sir Lawton...

Sep 26th, 2005, 01:58 PM
Brilliant article. I particularly like:

"There are a group of people in various parts of the world ... who simply don't want to accept human activities can change climate and are changing the climate. I'd liken them to the people who denied that smoking causes lung cancer."

Sep 30th, 2005, 05:27 PM
Tropical System Develops in Caribbean Sea; May Become Hurricane
Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- A tropical storm system is developing in the Caribbean Sea and has the potential to develop into another hurricane.

The so-called tropical wave, a weather system that develops off the coast of Africa during hurricane season, is near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, hurricane center meteorologist Robbie Berg said. The system is the ``seedlings of what becomes a hurricane,'' Berg said.

The system may intensify into Tropical Storm Stan, which would become the 18th named storm of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. A record number of storms have ravaged parts of the Gulf Coast and curbed oil and gas production. Natural gas prices climbed on concern another storm will strike.

``If it was to develop into a depression tonight or tomorrow, it could develop into a tropical storm,'' Berg said in an interview from Miami.


Still disorganized but......:(

Oct 1st, 2005, 01:04 AM
Tropical storms...especially in the southern Atlantic or the Caribbean...come in cycles. Five or ten or twenty year cycles. It all has to do with the surface temperatre of the water in any given area.

I worked offshore in the late seventies in that area and we had some WICKED storms! The guys were freaking out because they'd never seen anything like them before. LOTS of forced evacuations and damage.

Many experts claimed that we were in a "cycle of escalating destruction and more forceful weather events" at the time...

Then, things settled down for about a decade and a half. All we got was wind and some heavy rain. And the odd waterspout. Nothing of consequence.

The loud freakout weenies got suddenly quiet...and then worked out their remaining years and retired. Quiety. Without another thought about it.

Some of the new guys came onstream during this lesser period and rode these milder blows out said they'd "seen the worst that nature could offer"

Yeahhhh...RIGHT! :(

Nowadays we are back into a stronger set of weather patterns. And the people who haven't ever experienced the worst from a generation ago are currently freaking out and saying...rather loudly..that they "Have NEVER SEEN anything like this before!!"

No kidding. Big surprise.

Fifty years ago the storms were vastly worse...but there were no cameras to record them. Two hundred years ago whole coastside settlements were wiped out...but, again...no cameras were there to record the disaster...

Lord only knows WHAT it was like two hundred years ago. During the periods of high storm activity. But it was pobably worse. MUCH worse. Too bad we will never know....

Four hundred years ago? Two thousand years ago?? Ten thousand years ago??

We have a pretty good idea from the geological record that there were some VERY wild weather events happening back then. But there were no people around at that particular time who would stand before the camera lens and say "I've NEVER seen ANYTHING like THIS Before!!"

No cars..no factories...no atomic powerplants...no freon spewing refrigerators....no massive trash dumps.

But the weather got WILD! Just the same!

This is the nature of this planet.

Ho hum. Life goes on. Get used to it.

used to be jwoodget
Oct 1st, 2005, 09:50 AM
There are excellent film and photograpgh records of the gulf area storms that stretch back 100 years. In the ealy part of the 20th century, Galvaston Tx was devastated by a hurricane. They were not prepared. The weather does come in periodic cycles but the current activity is being exacerbated by atypical gulf temperatures. As a consequence, synergistic forces have lead to storms and damage that are unprecedented in recent gulf history (say 150 years). The question is whether we are still on the upswing, whether the trends are accelerating or whether the trend will top out.

Of course, we know that in the distant past there were catastophic climate changes (such as the 10,000 year ice age cycle). It carved our landscape. However, these changes occurred slowly. It is true that when you're experiencing unsual weather, it could be a local, periodic fluctuation or it could be a harbinger for a more basic trend. The scientists are split on this.

Oct 1st, 2005, 10:01 AM
the big difference is the planet is more populated
and it appears that temp. in the Gulf are higher than the "cyclical" trend would predict and the frequency of hurricanes is up

someone posted a bar graph and although the bar for this decade (2000-2004) was less than 1/2 of a spike 20 odd years ago, the data only accounted for less than 1/2 of the decade

and macnutt doesn't believe smoking is bad for his health either

Oct 1st, 2005, 11:46 AM
There is also simply no question whatsoever that the rise in Cat 4 and 5 storm frequency tracks ocean warming trends.

Bottom line - it does not matter in the least whether a long term cycle in the ocean/atmosphere is reinforcing or dampening the level of storm power - the next 20 -30 years will see increasing levels of Cat 4 and 5 storms as it has steadily over the past 30 years.

Total storms are not increasing nor are AVERAGE wind speeds.....what it undeniable is the increase in the number of top level storms....like Katrina and Rita.
By itself, a doubling of CO2 (which, incidentally, accounts for some 10 to 25 percent of the natural greenhouse effect, not 1 percent) would warm earth by less than 2 degrees F. But therein lies the power of positive feedback. A 2-degree rise in temperature would cause more water to evaporate from the oceans and thus contribute additional water vapor to the greenhouse effect, resulting in a final warming most climatologists project to be a little less than 4 degrees. But if the complicating ice and cloud feedbacks are added in, models suggest that anywhere from 3 to 9 degrees of warming would result from a doubling in CO2 levels. Scientists cannot make more accurate predictions at the moment because of uncertainties surrounding the feedback processes, yet most think the upper limit represents ecological disaster

The Gulf Stream is slowing, the ice is melting at both poles, migration patterns are changing incredibly fast in oceans and on land......in a blink of a geological eye.....

MIT has a good assessment - of course they're just flakes.....tree huggers......



As to tracking earlier storms -

Analysis of storm deposits recovered from Strathmere, New Jersey, provides a 700-year record of historic and prehistoric intense storms striking the New Jersey coast. Intense hurricanes typically result in storm surge of more than 10 feet above normal tides. Given the extremely low elevation of many of the heavily developed barrier islands on the New Jersey coast, the next intense hurricane strike will likely result in extreme damage to property. Due to a lack of public awareness, insufficient time to warn the population, and inadequate evacuation routes, significant loss of life may occur as well.

With the increase in 4 and 5 level storms the risk for other heavily populated and completely unprepared areas is heightened and the East Coast of the US is overdue statistically for a major hurricane.


These must be seriously stupid people in New York to actually PREPARE for hurricanes......I mean really.....

To get a sense of the damage that storm surge can do to New York City, call 311 and ask them to send you a full-color copy of the New York City Hurricane Evacuation Map. It is a truly mind-boggling document. If a storm like the Long Island Express makes a direct hit on the city, everything below Broome Street will be inundated, some parts under as much as 20 and 30 feet of water. Chelsea and Greenwich Village are completely flooded, with the Hudson spilling over all the way to 7th Avenue. Likewise, the East River and East Village become one, with ocean water surging all the way to 1st Avenue. If you haven't evacuated before the storm, forget it. During the storm, Manhattan's east- and west-side highways vanish. Tunnels and bridges become unusable.

The outer boroughs also get hit hard. Opposed to that new Ikea being built on the waterfront in Red Hook? Don't worry. There's a decent chance it won't be there after a moderate-size hurricane. Residents of Williamsburg-Greenpoint should seek out a male and female of each species and get in their arks. In a kind of one-two-punch effect, a major hurricane will push ocean water down from the Long Island Sound into the Upper East Side, South Bronx and northern Queens, flooding those areas severely. Vast stretches of southern Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island will be devastated. The map shows Atlantic Ocean storm surge reaching as far inland as Flatbush, just south of Prospect Park, with 31.3 feet of water atop Howard Beach.

"A lot of people say, 'How can you come up with these numbers? Thirty feet, that's ridiculous. It's science fiction.' Actually," Lee says, "It's science fact." Hurricanes in the southern U.S. have proven the Army Corps of Engineers' storm-surge calculations to be accurate within a few inches.

For a taste of what will happen to the city's infrastructure, we can look at the damage wrought by the great nor'easters of the early 1990s. During those storms, the L train had to be backed out as the 14th Street tunnel began filling with water, and the FDR highway was so badly inundated that 50 motorists had to be rescued by dive teams. In the event of a direct hit by a category-3 hurricane, surge maps show that the Holland and Battery Tunnels will be completely filled with sea water, with many subway and railroad tunnels severely flooded as well. The runways of LaGuardia and JFK airports will get flooded by 18.1 and 31.2 feet of water, respectively.

Why is New York so vulnerable

New York City's biggest vulnerability is the most unyielding—geology. The New York bight is the right angle formed by Long Island and New Jersey with the city tucked into its apex. "Hurricanes do not like right angles," Lee says. "[They allow] water to accumulate and pile up."

Couple this with the fact that New York resides on a very shallow continental shelf, and as a big storm pushes north, New York Harbor "acts as a funnel." As storm surge forces its way into the harbor and up the rivers, it has nowhere to go but onto land. New York City, it turns out, has some of the highest storm-surge values in the country. "When we see a category-3 storm making landfall in Florida, it may only have a 12-, 13-foot storm surge," Lee says. "For us here, a category-1 storm can give us 12 feet of storm surge."

Just the devastation in Halifax is cautionary. More of the Cat 4 and 5 storms and rising water levels plus much greater coastal development.........:eek: :( ...... bodes ill.

Oct 1st, 2005, 12:18 PM
Of course, we know that in the distant past there were catastophic climate changes (such as the 10,000 year ice age cycle). It carved our landscape. However, these changes occurred slowly. It is true that when you're experiencing unsual weather, it could be a local, periodic fluctuation or it could be a harbinger for a more basic trend. The scientists are split on this.

I have a now decades-old memory of a geography prof arguing--and he was adamant that this was only a hypothesis--that regardless of what triggers a glacial period (unknown), once triggered it could build momentum very quickly. A couple of years of substantial 12-month snow cover as far south as the 60th parallel (and comparable cooling at the antipodes), and rapid buildup and advance of glaciers could follow.

Another thing I remember is that based on the pattern of advance and retreat of glaciers over the past two million years, we should expect a new ice age "any day now" in geological terms. Could be decades, centuries, or millennia away, nobody knows for sure, but it's almost certainly coming.

So, anyone know how far out-to-lunch my profs were in the 80s? ;)

Oct 1st, 2005, 12:49 PM
iMatt latest major insight is the ocean circulation tipping point. If enough fresh water gets into the Atlantic quickly it slows the circulation and climate change can be very abrupt if it actually stops.

It's a key finding and one of the emerging thoughts is that the Hudson Bay area was fresh water damned up by ice that suddenly collapsed and released enormous amounts of fresh water into the north Atlantic and that triggered another smaller ice age until the circulation resumed.

A huge volcano erupting in say Greenland could provide a combination of dust and glacial melt to trigger a similar event and if say the the Gulf Stream did stop suddenly ( it's slowing ) the climate impact would be enormous.
But it's such a complex system that the "tipping points" and what they portend are hard to discern.
But WE are an impact as well and the Gulf Stream IS slowing.

There was a terrific program on the other night about glacial damning in the Western US where grand Canyon scale erosion and landscape features.....were created in days.
Fascinating story.

This guy was ostracised for years as he postulated the "created in days" theory of that particular area

Terrific pictures of the landscape features here



Big things CAN happen quickly.

Oct 6th, 2005, 02:57 PM
We're now up to the Ts

Tropical Storm Tammy hits northern Florida

MIAMI, Oct. 5 (UPI) -- Tropical Storm Tammy, the 19th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, moved inland Wednesday evening, lashing northern Florida and southern Georgia.

The storm moved inland with sustained winds of 50 mph, the National Hurricane Center reported, coming ashore near Mayport, Fla., at about 7 p.m. EDT. It was expected to continue moving north-northwest at about 14 mph into Georgia.

A tropical storm warning was in effect from Fernandina Beach north of Jacksonville to the South Santee River in South Carolina. Tropical storm force winds extended outward 260 miles from Tammy's center.

Tammy stripped sand from the beach in St. Augustine Beach, undoing a major beach replenishment project, WJXX reported. The storm also flooded roads.

This season, with almost eight weeks still to go, has produced the largest number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic in more than 70 years

One very soggy US South and 8 weeks to go :eek:

Hmmmm ...must ...not...make...sarcastic .....comment about red states.........urk urk ;)

Oct 6th, 2005, 05:58 PM
MacDoc, when are you going to stop posting these tropical storm pics and provide us with URLs of peaceful and beautiful spots in which to live, like Salt Spring Island? There, everyone is having fun and enjoying the good life, and in all the places you post people are facing the reality/possibility of losing everything. Be as MacNutt, and be one with the world, at peace with the world....... Paix, mon ami.

Oct 6th, 2005, 07:37 PM
The irony is just too much fun. :D Besides, Cuba needs rain.

Oct 6th, 2005, 09:48 PM
Well, send Cuba some rain, and let us all wish we were in Salt Spring Island, Canada's paradise.

Oct 6th, 2005, 10:07 PM
Hmmph ...trolling again......something about "fishing" must catching in your environs ;)

Oct 6th, 2005, 11:05 PM
Hmmph ...trolling again......something about "fishing" must catching in your environs ;)

that would be "phishing"

Oct 18th, 2005, 09:25 PM
Up to the Ws :eek: 5 weeks to go. Cat 3 projected too, no wimp this one.

Oct. 18, 2005. 11:48 AM

Wilma upgraded to hurricane

MIAMI - Tropical storm Wilma strengthened into a hurricane Tuesday on a path that could threaten Florida, tying the record for the most hurricanes to form in an Atlantic season.
Wilma is the 12th hurricane of the season, a number reached once before, in 1969, since record-keeping began in 1851. At 11 a.m. ET, Wilma had top sustained winds of near 121 kilometres an hour, just above the 119-km/h threshold to be a hurricane.

Long-range forecasts show Wilma could hit western Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula before heading into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday. The storm could also spare those countries while passing through the Yucatan Channel. Either way, computer models showed Wilma bearing down on Florida over the weekend.

Oct 19th, 2005, 10:28 AM
Ohh my - try Cat 5 and the most intense ever recorded...and it's late October!!!!! :eek:

Wilma now most intense Atlantic hurricane in history
Wednesday, October 19, 2005 Posted at 8:46 AM EDT
Associated Press

San Pedro Sula, Honduras — Gathering strength at a fierce pace, hurricane Wilma swirled into the most intense Atlantic storm ever recorded Wednesday, a category 5 monster packing winds of more than 280 kilometres an hour.

Wilma was dumping rain on Central America and Mexico, and forecasters warned of a “significant threat” to Florida by the weekend.

Woo this is nasty - just talked to a friend in Florida.
That track could wander anywhere from S Florida to Lousiana



Oct 19th, 2005, 11:05 AM
Wow, that is some storm and bad news for gas prices if it gets near the gulf coast oil refineries, as gas here dropped to 87.4 cents yesterday.

Oct 19th, 2005, 11:10 AM
Already, as a precaution, officials have ordered visitors out of the Florida Keys in the first U.S. evacuations caused by the Category 5 storm.

Storm-weary Floridians kept an anxious eye on Wilma as it grew Wednesday, with forecasters warning of a significant threat to the state by the weekend. The storm, which also menaced Cuba and Central America, had winds of more than 280 kilometres an hour.

The storm was expected to come ashore in southwestern Florida, threatening coastal areas like Punta Gorda that were hit by Charley, a Category 4 storm that was the first of seven hurricanes to strike or pass close to the state since August 2004.

Early Tuesday, Wilma was only a tropical storm with winds of 110 km/h. With winds more than 170 km/h faster by the same time Wednesday, it had shown the most rapid strengthening ever recorded in a hurricane, said Hugh Cobb, a meteorologist at the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

It was expected to move across Florida quickly, which means it wouldn't weaken much over land, Cobb said. That means it's possible Atlantic coast cities such as Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach could be hit by winds nearly as strong as the west coast if the storm stays on its predicted course, Cobb said.

Tracking is not expected to swing into the western gulf but BOTH coasts of Florida and the east coast north...can't recall this kind of track.

The most rapid spin up ever recorded. ........

Oct 19th, 2005, 03:00 PM
Look at that nasty projected path....I saw Discovery special on the devastation the rain caused in S Carolina, I think it was Hugo - this could sure dump a lot of water on the East coast and it may track up the Gulf Stream so it's power could stay high.
One town with a 30 FOOT levy still had water 10' above the levy top.......

That's also a nasty path righ about Miami level across southern Florida.
Cuba is not going to escape either tho I find that "curve" around the Cuban main Island at "ironic"....Mother Nature's commentary.


Oct 19th, 2005, 04:14 PM
Noticed the missing "i" in the command line in Macdoc's post, so here is the map:

Oct 19th, 2005, 06:26 PM
Space photos


Oct 19th, 2005, 06:37 PM
Just was listening on CNN to Max Mayfield, the nation's chief hurricane forecaster at NOAA, who has the latest on Hurricane Wilma. There is one forecast model used by the US Navy that has Wilma going over southern Florida and then "by passing all landfalls as it travels up the North Atlantic". However, I saw his map and yes, the hurricane bypasses Nova Scotia...............but hits eastern NL. I know that many Canadian school children (and adults) do not include us on a map of Canada, and many Americans think we are part of Greenland................but I thought that at least we were part of the Northern Hemisphere in the eyes of NOAA. It should only bring us heavy rains here in St.John's, but that is if we are still here and have not become invisible. We shall see.

Oct 19th, 2005, 07:15 PM
Yes that's a worrisome path as it will dump a ton of rain but not lose much power. :(

used to be jwoodget
Oct 19th, 2005, 07:15 PM
Wilma looks almost stationary (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html). This makes the projected tracking very, very inaccurate. Let's hope she burns out over sea.

Oct 19th, 2005, 08:09 PM

5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005


About 3 hours ago it was moving WNW at 7 kph... yep very slow forward movement but with no landfall and lots of hot ocean there is no reason for a major decrease in power - I suspect it's meeting the air mass that is going to deflect it back towards the east.

If that happens further south that may mean it might miss Florida but Cuba will get the brunt and it may drift out further over the Atlantic away from the east coast. :clap:
Certainly there must be some confidence in the track to issue an evacuation for the Keys tho :(

This is a nice clear map

Oct 19th, 2005, 08:53 PM
Mayfield of NOAA said that their most advanced computer-generated models at Princeton have it in a nearly stationary, slow moving course. However, all of their other models have it going over the south of Florida and quickly moving up the Atlantic...................right for St.John's. We shall see.

It is interesting that there is such diversity in the tracking of hurricanes these days, in that in the interview with Mayfield, he kept using qualifiers and not wanting to make definitive statements.

Oct 19th, 2005, 09:05 PM
If it moves into the open Atlantic, I sincerely hope it bypasses St. John's, Dr. G.

Oct 19th, 2005, 09:10 PM
Sinc, using the US Navy charted path, the eye comes directly over our fair city. Hopefully, the cooler North Atlantic shall save us from the wrath of the hurricane. Juan, which pounded Nova Scotia, dumped a load of rain upon us, and other that some flooded basements, no major damage. We shall see.

Oct 20th, 2005, 05:01 PM
It is looking like my honneymoon destination is about to be wiped off the map :(

Hopefully the damage isn't to extensive and all the nice people I met down there are okay.

Oct 21st, 2005, 10:29 AM
Live ( sort of ) WebCam from Cozumel where the eye wall is just hitting


Oct 21st, 2005, 10:33 AM
We are actually preparing for Wilma coming over us here in St.John's next week. A storm surge could swamp Water Street, North America's oldest street in NA's oldest city, in that it is only 5 feet above sea level. Where I am sitting is about 300 feet above sea level, but I was talking with someone who works with the City of St.John's in the Public Works Dept. and they are watching.............and waiting. Juan pounded Halifax and we don't want to have to go through what they went through back then.

Oct 21st, 2005, 10:38 AM
Live ( sort of ) WebCam from Cozumel where the eye wall is just hitting


Where we stayed was just south of Cozumel on the main land.
We were in the Villa on the far left, closest to the water. It is going to be SCREWED!


Oct 21st, 2005, 10:38 AM
Talk about dead aim. Damn eye is as big as the whole island. :eek:


Yes folks that's a real photo just colour enhanced for clarity.

Oct 21st, 2005, 11:07 AM
DG, how high above sea level are those buildings at the rear of this complex?

Oct 21st, 2005, 12:11 PM
My villa was maybe 15'-20' above see level. The first floor (maybe the second) of that villa will be under water.

Oct 21st, 2005, 12:46 PM
That photo updates :eek: right dead on and the back eyewall will be the worst. :(

The eyewall of Hurricane Wilma crashed into Cozumel along Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula today and was expected to strike close to Cancún, posing a dire threat to those tourist areas.

Powerful squalls and hurricane conditions swept portions of the Yucatan and worse weather was on the way -- slowly. Thousands of residents and stranded tourists sought safety in public shelters and hotel ballrooms.

''The most important thing now . . . is to protect lives, protect the lives of our children, of our grandparents,'' Mexican President Vicente Fox said during a nationally broadcast speech. ``Possessions can be replaced.''

Wilma was expected to linger for days in the area, producing 10 to 20 inches of rain through Sunday across portions of the Yucatan and western Cuba. An incredible 40 inches of rain were possible in some areas of Cuba. ....oh my


Live reports and some video on CNN

Nasty track on this forecast


Oct 21st, 2005, 02:37 PM
MacDoc, extend the line in that map a bit further................and you hit St.John's. :(

Oct 21st, 2005, 02:58 PM
If that track holds it's right up the Gulf Stream which could keep the storm very well fueled.

But it's a very random storm. :(

It might just churn round and round the gulf wreaking havoc.......5 weeks left......:eek:

The reports said the storm is widening with hurricane winds 85 miles out from the eye.
Not only nasty.....but BIG too.

Oct 21st, 2005, 03:13 PM
The Gulf Stream and the Labrador Current meet about 10 km from where I am sitting. We shall see which way the storm tracks.

Oct 21st, 2005, 05:58 PM
Early photo of damage in Cancun - I would think Cozumel will be absolutely devastated.
At least an 11' storm surge ;(

Oct 22nd, 2005, 04:00 PM
Not over yet.........Alpha about to make the record books

CNN) -- Tropical Depression 25, swirling in the eastern Caribbean, is expected to evolve into Tropical Storm Alpha Saturday afternoon, setting a new record for the number of named storms in a single Atlantic hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center.

An NHC advisory issued Saturday said the storm is likely to move northward over Hispaniola Sunday, delivering heavy rains, potential flooding and mudslides, before moving over the Turks and Caicos on northeastern path into the Atlantic where it would likely dissipate.

Haiti and the Dominican Republic share the island of Hispaniola.

If, as predicted, the depression's current top winds of 35 mph increase to 39 mph or higher, it would be designated Tropical Storm Alpha, the 22nd named Atlantic storm of 2005.

No real threat further west tho the Bahamas could get hit....my my 5 weeks to go. I would hope at least Cuba's reservoirs are getting refilled if all this activity can have some silver lining.


That's a long time for a big storm to hover over Cozumel and Cancun :(

Oct 22nd, 2005, 04:40 PM
David, let's see, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda, Mu, Nu, Xi, Omicron, Pi, Rho, Sigma, Tau, Upsilon, Phi, Chi, Psi and Omega, if I remember correctly from living on Fraternity Row in Athens, Georgia.

God help North America if we start getting deeply into the Greek Alphabet. We shall see.

Oct 22nd, 2005, 05:46 PM
Beta in the making perhaps - bottom right.

Oct 22nd, 2005, 07:55 PM
Great shot of eastern North America. One really gets a sense of how far east we are here in St.John's, which is only 12km from Cape Spear, which is the furthest easterly point in North America.


Oct 22nd, 2005, 07:57 PM
Take a look at the map and read the article of the potential superstorm that could form and be headed right for St.John's.


Oct 22nd, 2005, 08:36 PM
Take a look at the map and read the article of the potential superstorm that could form and be headed right for St.John's.

That would put Halifax in the same path would it not?

If so not only are my Newfoundland friends, but also my eldest son who resides in Halifax, possibly in harms way. I sure hope not.

Oct 22nd, 2005, 08:37 PM
Sinc, the eye of the hurricane would come right over St.John's.

Oct 22nd, 2005, 09:22 PM
Surely that far north, it would have weakened substantially by then would it not?

Oct 22nd, 2005, 09:47 PM
Sinc, it all depends upon how cold the Gulf Stream is by that point. This is what caused Juan to hit Halifax so hard. We are somewhat protected here in St.John's in that the warm Gulf Stream meets the cold Labrador Current not far from where I am sitting. This moderate our winter and summer temps, and causes the fog, but also protects us from hurricanes.

Oct 22nd, 2005, 10:38 PM
Sinc northern storms are "fed" differently that tropical hurricanes thos I'm not pretending I can summarize the differences.
A good description of a November hurricane in 1913 on the Great Lakes is found here and he goes into the meteorology.

Most tropical hurricanes fall in the 950 millibar range and higher - this one hit 955 in the Great Lakes. :eek:

Here's a cluster so you can see how powerful that Great Lakes storm was


If a fast tracking storm comes up the Gulf Stream and collides with one or more other weather systems....all hell can break loose as it did in the Perfect Storm.

Perfect storm
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
Meteorological event

The phrase the perfect storm is also associated with a meteorological event in October 1991, when a powerful weather system gathered force, ravaging the Atlantic Ocean over the course of several days and caused the deaths of several Massachusetts-based fisherman and billions of dollars of damage. In this case, the merging of two low-pressure areas (areas associated with storms), a large flow of warm air from the south, cold air from the north, and moisture feeding into the storm from the warm ocean current (the Gulf stream) all combined with exceptionally strong northwesterly winds (cold air), and strong Northeasterly winds (warm air that moved up from the south spinning counter clockwise in typical low pressure behavior) created an exceptionally strong storm across a very large area. Had the storm been concentrated, it might have looked more like a hurricane. Without typical hurricane warnings, fisherman and smaller vessels at sea were caught in hurricane-like conditions.

Looking at that chart.....Wilma was right off it at 882 millibars.WOW!

Then there was this one in 1938
I saw a special on it and there was no warning.

Facts of the 1938 Hurricane
Peak Steady Winds - 121 mph
Peak Gust - 186 mph at Blue Hill Observatory, MA.
Lowest Pressure - 27.94 in (946.2 mb) at Bellport, NY
Peak Storm Surge - 17 ft. above normal high tide (RI)
Peak Wave Heights - 50 ft. at Gloucester, MA
Deaths - 700 (600 in New England)
Homeless - 63,000
Homes, Buildings Destroyed - 8,900
Boats Lost - 3,300
Trees Destroyed - 2 Billion (approx.)
Cost - $6.2 million (1938), $15 billion (1998 adjusted)

Oct 23rd, 2005, 06:36 AM
Some images from Cancun - seems very little out of Cozumel which may be a bad sign. :(


Oct 23rd, 2005, 12:13 PM

Wilma....The Flintstone Express.......damn thing is moving at some 40 mph in the Gulf so the "nasty side" winds can be as high as 140 mph- it's also timing to hit at high tide - ouch. :( Alpha is forming up as Part II of this deadly duo.

Still setting up to turn north along the East Coast ala the Long Island Express.

Interesting times indeed........and the White Sox leading the World Series.....:eek:

End of times perhaps ;) The omens gather........:D

Oct 23rd, 2005, 12:36 PM
"End of times perhaps The omens gather........"

Actually, MacDoc, that is the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series. "I think you should know that when the Cubs next win the National League Championship, it will be the last pennant before Armageddon." (from W.P. Kinsella's short story "The Last Pennant Before Armageddon")

used to be jwoodget
Oct 23rd, 2005, 07:36 PM
While we've been proccupied with the Gulf hurricanes (for good reason) this season has also seen the first recorded hurricane hit Spain. Last year, a hurricane (Catarina) hit parts of Brazil. First time a recorded Atlantic hurricane has hit South Amercia! In November, the cooling seas tend to reduce hurricane threats but the Gulf of Mexico is 1-3 degrees C higher than normal at this time of year - hence there may be an extended season.

About 11000 BC, a rush of melting freshwater from Eastern Canada overwhelmed the gulfstream and plunged Europe into an ice age that lasted several hundred years....

Oct 23rd, 2005, 07:58 PM
Yeah - don't get me started on the "Greenland threat". There is enough fresh water locked up there to raise sea levels 20' or more......and yes it's a net melt lately. :(

Maybe we find out it's Greenland that holds the thermostat - it gets a tad toasty and it dumps enough fresh water to reverse the trend. :eek:

Those increased hurricane numbers all pump heat north.....= Arctic melt.

Oct 23rd, 2005, 07:59 PM
About 11000 BC, a rush of melting freshwater from Eastern Canada overwhelmed the gulfstream and plunged Europe into an ice age that lasted several hundred years....

Sure, Blame Canada. Again.

Oct 24th, 2005, 03:24 AM
Wow the Keys are getting hammered.....up to 120 mph sustained and grinding on the length of Keys - Key West on the southern eyewall - the worst area.
The eye is 45 miles wide and still at 120 mph - lucky this didn't tighten up :eek!! That's gonna be a very broad storm surge right at high tide.


Dr. G.....you gonna get wet.


..and windy. Nova Scotia even more so.

Oct 24th, 2005, 06:30 AM
MacDoc, thanks for the warning. We are prepared..........

Oct 24th, 2005, 08:05 PM
Well Dr. G you seem to have a double barrelled assault
Tropical storm Alpha appears to be merging with Wilma


by AccuWeather.com Sr. Meteorologist Jim Andrews
STATE COLLEGE, PA (AccuWeather.com) -- The atmosphere as of Saturday holds potential for the development of a powerful storm off the Atlantic Seaboard of the United States early next week. While this would be true to some extent without the existence of Hurricane Wilma and the newly-dubbed Tropical Storm Alpha, which represent a great reservoir of tropical warmth and moisture, it only ratchets up the potential.

and more current

Superstorm 2005 In Progress
Monday, October 24, 2005
I just left our on-floor forecast discussion with our top meteorologists and I can tell you that the Superstorm of 2005 is beginning. As predicted Saturday, the moisture from Wilma is combining with the storm system in the East. You can see the moisture areas combining already at left. We should see flooding rains again on the Northeast coast (sorry guys!), along with high winds gusting to 70 mph. Further inland, up to a foot of snow could fall through the spine of the Appalachians. Latest Info



Oct 24th, 2005, 08:36 PM
MacDoc, luckily, this is not wintertime. We had "weather bombs" which dumped over 5 feet of snow in a 9 day period six years ago.

Oct 27th, 2005, 03:32 PM
What was that Greek List???? :eek: Beta .....batter up.........



1130 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005


Oct 28th, 2005, 12:12 AM

Named storm No. 23, Beta, off Nicaragua

Colombian island begins evacuations

Thursday, October 27, 2005; Posted: 9:52 p.m. EDT (01:52 GMT)

MANAGUA, Nicaragua (AP) -- Officials evacuated hundreds of tourists and residents from the Colombian island of San Andres as Tropical Storm Beta appeared on track to become the 13th hurricane of the already record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season of 23 named storms.

Officials used clergy to convince people to leave San Andres, an island popular with tourists that sits 110 miles off Nicaragua's coast, and which lies almost directly in the storm's projected path.

San Andres is a far-flung possession of Colombia, whose coast is 450 miles away. The U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami said Beta's center was expected to pass near San Andres late Thursday or Friday.

Beta is expected to continue on and hit mainland Nicaragua as a strong Category 2 hurricane by Sunday.

Four weeks left

Nov 16th, 2005, 04:27 PM
Well we have not yet quite made it to Gamma tho it was close.
The deaths however continue.

Tropical depression kills two in Caribbean
KINGSTOWN, St. Vincent (AP) — Mudslides killed two fishermen and destroyed three homes as heavy rains brought by a tropical depression overflowed river banks and made roads impassable in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, emergency officials said Tuesday.

The center of the tropical depression is about 300 miles south of Puerto Rico.
Torrents of rain also swept away two bridges in Trinidad.

The poorly organized depression was moving south of Puerto Rico and was expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Gamma on Wednesday or Thursday, said Richard Knabb, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It is not expected to threaten the United States. (Related: Track storm)

It would be the 24th named storm of an already record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season. The previous record of 21 named storms had stood since 1933.

On the Grenadine island of Bequia on Monday, a mudslide buried two men in a party of 10 camping on a fishing trip near Rocky Bay, emergency management coordinator Howie Prince said.

The victims' friends tried to dig them out but were overtaken by a second landslide and fled. Emergency workers recovered the bodies of Randolph Matthews, 27, and Alwyn Williams, 32, early Tuesday, Prince said. The men were from the fishing village of Questelles, on the main island of St. Vincent.

Near the capital, Kingstown, landslides destroyed three houses and rivers burst their banks, making several roads impassable, Prince said.

One man was hospitalized with a head injury after his house collapsed. Another man lost all of his personal papers and most of his furniture.

The airport in St. Vincent was closed because of heavy rain and flooding in the terminal and debris on the runway.

In Trinidad, Monday's heavy rains unleashed flooding and landslides that washed away at least two bridges outside of the capital, Port-of-Spain, authorities said. Emergency workers rescued 45 students and seven teachers who were left stranded at their school when a bridge was destroyed in Matelot, on the country's north coast.

At 10 a.m. ET, the depression was centered about 305 miles south-southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph, 4 mph under tropical storm strength and unchanged since Sunday night.

It was moving west-northwest near 12 mph.

The storm has been a poorly organized system due to the unchanged wind speed, said Richard Pasch, a U.S. hurricane specialist in Miami.

Dangerous rip currents and up to 12 inches of rain were possible across the Windward Islands, the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


Tornadoes in November!!!!!...and not just an isolated few. :(

Posted 11/14/2005 2:36 PM Updated 11/14/2005 3:22 PM

Iowans recovering from rare Nov. tornadoes
WOODWARD, Iowa (AP) — State agencies and relief organizations were on the job Monday helping Iowans clear away wreckage and resume their lives following weekend tornadoes that ravaged small towns and killed one woman :eek:

Nov 19th, 2005, 12:13 AM
MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- Tropical Storm Gamma -- the 24th storm of the busiest hurricane season on record -- formed Friday off the coast of Central America, and forecasters said it could threaten Florida by the beginning of next week, perhaps as a hurricane.

Nov 19th, 2005, 01:13 AM
Marc, you're just being an alarmist. It's just part of the hurricane cycle. I bet Dick Cheney doesn't own any trailer homes.

Global warming is just a myth like the link between cigarettes and cancer.

Jan 1st, 2006, 06:06 PM
Okay okay I was shocked too.........ZETA!!!!!!! :eek:

Way Past a Devastating Season, the 27th Tropical Storm Festers

Published: December 31, 2005
Just in time to close out a record-setting year of ill winds, along comes Tropical Storm Zeta, in the Atlantic 1,000 miles southwest of the Azores.

Meteorologists, issuing early warnings yesterday, predicted that the storm would maintain or slightly increase its strength today and then weaken as it moved west. The storm, they said, was not expected to reach land or hurricane intensity.

"It's a minimal storm," said Todd Miner, a meteorologist at Pennsylvania State University. "It's way out in the middle of nowhere. Nonetheless, it is a storm, and storms are rare this late in the year."

Two thousand five has been that kind of year. The first big Atlantic blow was Tropical Storm Arlene, back in June, and by early July Dennis had whipped itself into a full-blast hurricane. Twelve more hurricanes developed, the nastiest of which, Katrina, devastated New Orleans and much of the Gulf Coast.

In all, 26 named storms raged from June through November, the usual hurricane season, more than in any other year since the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began keeping records in the mid-1800's. So many, indeed, that storm-namers ran through the alphabet and had to dip into the Greek alphabet. Zeta, the 27th named storm of 2005, gets the sixth Greek letter. The oceanic agency uses only 21 letters of the Roman alphabet.


Jun 10th, 2006, 08:25 PM
.....and kicking off what promises to be another wild and woolly time in the Atlantic :D

Tropical depression forms in Caribbean
Jun. 10, 2006. 07:37 PM

MIAMI — A tropical depression that formed today in the Caribbean Sea was the first of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, which scientists predict could produce up to 16 named storms, six of them major hurricanes.
The depression was expected to become the year's first named storm — Alberto — as it veers toward Florida but was not expected to become a hurricane.
"It will be relatively weak in terms of wind, but that doesn't mean it's going to be weak in terms of rainfall," senior hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said.
Last year's hurricane season was the busiest and most destructive in recorded history. One of them, hurricane Katrina, devastated Louisiana and Mississippi and was blamed for more than 1,570 deaths in Louisiana alone.
The depression that formed today, nine days after the official start of the season, had maximum sustained winds near 55 kilometres an hour, just below the 63 km/h threshold for a tropical storm, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

a soggy Florida coming right up


Aug 26th, 2006, 09:58 AM
Act two?? Nasty track that's on for potential New Orleans problems.


early yet but.........round we go again.

This from the BBC

Package holiday 'will be history'

Popular destinations may lose their attraction
Climate change may lead to the British package holiday to the Mediterranean becoming "consigned to the scrapbook of history", a report claims.
Places like Majorca may be too hot by 2030, and replaced by UK holidays, and health, sport and cultural visits, the Halifax Travel Insurance study said.

The report said more extreme weather events and higher temperatures may put tourists at greater risk abroad.

People may switch their main holiday to the winter or the spring, it suggested.

By 2030, global sea levels could rise by 25cm and shorelines could retreat by as much as 1,230ft, it is claimed.

Long-haul destinations such as Florida could be hit by increasingly powerful hurricanes and a loss of beaches. And extreme conditions such as drought, storms and torrential rainfall could increase, according to the study.

May 9th, 2007, 06:55 PM
Atlantic's First Named Storm Forms Early
The Associated Press
Wednesday, May 9, 2007; 2:20 PM

MIAMI -- The first named storm of the year formed Wednesday off the southeastern U.S. coast, more than three weeks before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters said.

Subtropical Storm Andrea had top sustained winds around 45 mph Wednesday afternoon and didn't appear to be much of a threat, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. Still, a tropical storm watch was issued for parts of Georgia and Florida, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.


This photo shows subtropical storm Andrea, the first named storm of the year, off Florida and Georgia at 11 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, May 8, 2007. Also visible are streams of smoke in northern Florida and Georgia from wildfires raging in the two states. (AP)

"We're not looking at this system strengthening significantly," said Richard Pasch, a senior hurricane specialist at the center.

The storm's wind, however, has been blowing smoke from wildfires across Georgia and Florida.

bet the insurance companies are casting their bones about 2007.

Aug 19th, 2007, 05:07 AM
Let the show begin...with a bang :eek: ..with maybe a Cat 5 !!!..already a category 4.


Hurricane Dean and its clearly defined eye can be seen swirling in the Carribean with part of the International Space Station visible in the foreground in this view from NASA TV August 18, 2007.

Hurricane Dean strengthens to Category 4 in Caribbean -- OrlandoSentinel.com (http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/orl-bk-dean081707,0,1489127.story)

Hurricane Dean bears down on Jamaica



August 18, 2007 at 11:15 PM EDT

KINGSTON — Residents snapped up emergency supplies and tourists crowded Caribbean airports on Saturday as Hurricane Dean bore down on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and threatened to pound Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a rare Category 5 storm.

globeandmail.com: Hurricane Dean bears down on Jamaica (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070818.wdean0818/BNStory/International/home)

Aug 26th, 2007, 07:21 PM
Fortunately Dean was not such a killer despite coming ashore as a Cat 5 :eek:

This photo prior to hitting Mexico caught my eye...pardon the pun..


Beautiful....deadly..not so bad THIS time.

Sep 2nd, 2007, 04:23 PM
'Nother one lining up - went to Cat 3 in 24 hours :eek:


Felix intensifies to Category 3 hurricane
September 2, 2007 at 2:14 PM EDT
WILLEMSTAD, Curacao — Gusty winds knocked down trees and stinging rain flooded streets in the Netherlands Antilles on Sunday as Hurricane Felix strengthened into a "major" storm north of the Dutch Caribbean islands.

On a similar though more southerly track toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as last month's powerful Hurricane Dean, which killed 27 people, Felix's top sustained winds had increased to 205 km/h by 2 p.m. EDT, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

That made the second hurricane of the 2007 Atlantic storm season, located about 790 kilometres southeast of the Jamaican capital Kingston, a Category 3, or "major" hurricane capable of causing serious damage.

globeandmail.com: Felix intensifies to Category 3 hurricane (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070902.wfelix0901/BNStory/International/home)

Sep 2nd, 2007, 08:16 PM
Damn it's a Cat 4 already - the fastest growing hurricane on record.!!!!


Felix grows into a Category 4 hurricane targeting Belize
8 hours ago

MIAMI (AFP) — One person was reported missing in Venezuela as Hurricane Felix grew into a major class-four storm Sunday and threatened to become a level-five super storm as it headed on a track toward Honduras and Belize.

Venezuela civil defense officials said a person went missing as beaches were evacuated in Puerto Cabello, 120 kilometers (75 miles) west of Caracas, which was blasted by high winds, heavy rains and up to three meter (10 feet) swells from Felix before it intensified.

Felix strengthens at alarming rate

Felix is the Atlantic storm season's second hurricane; Dean claimed 25 lives last month [AFP]
Hurricane Felix is strengthening at an alarming rate after lashing a cluster of Dutch Caribbean islands and churning its way into the open waters of the Caribbean sea.

Felix, a Category 4 storm on Sunday but expected to hit Category 5, struck Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire with rains and heavy winds, causing power outages and flooding some homes.

This thing only BECAME a hurricane on Saturday .....NOW 24 hours later it's a Cat 4 heading to Cat 5......yow.

and now IS a Cat 5

Hurricane expected to slam Central America midweek
Sep 02, 2007 08:25 PM
Associated Press

ORANJESTAD, Aruba – Hurricane Felix strengthened into a dangerous Category 5 storm Sunday and churned its way into the open waters of the Caribbean Sea after toppling trees and flooding some homes on a cluster of Dutch islands.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Felix was packing maximum sustained winds of 165 mph as it plowed westward toward Central America, where it was expected to skirt Honduras' coastline Tuesday before slamming into Belize on Wednesday as a hurricane capable of massive destruction.

That must be some hot water it's transversing to accelerate like that. :eek:

Sep 2nd, 2007, 09:44 PM
I have a friend here in Mexico who works with public safety, disaster response, etc. The damage in the Yucatán, I hear, was extensive in the Mayan communities (the resorts weren't terribly affected).

In Hidalgo, where I was when Dean passed overhead, it had weakened considerably and we had - practically no wind, but in some places up to 20 inches of rainfall. The neighbourhood I was staying in was partially evacuated from flooding (it reached our front door, and stopped... our bags were packed).

But in the rural, mountainous areas - total disaster. It's hard to convey to those who live in Canada just how precarious life and shelter is down here for the truly poor. Houses - if you can call 'em that - are little more than sticks with a sheet of tin on the roof. The nightly news last week showed some video of some of the better-constructed houses, with concrete floors and walls, being undermined by the rapidly flowing water, washing away the foundation and leaving the house to collapse.

Our community project in Huehuetla has just gotten several degrees more difficult.... :(

The photo below is from the community of Alfajayucan in Hidalgo, México, taken two days before the hurricane. I'd post photos of the post-hurricane aftermath, but nobody was able to get to those communities in the few days I had left in the area. I can only imagine what hurricane-force winds would do to a shack like that... not to mention its ability to withstand flooding....

Sep 2nd, 2007, 10:06 PM

Mexico looks to get double whammy again. Two cat 5s in 2 weeks :eek:

Where were you CM?


Hmmmph .....do you think Henrietta and Felix might BREED??!!!!:D

Tropical storm Henriette is forecast to strike Mexico as a hurricane at about 18:00 GMT on 4 September. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 22.6 N, 110.6 W. Henriette is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 157 km/h (97 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

make that a triple whammy.....


Interesting times in Central America

Sep 2nd, 2007, 11:44 PM
I'd say Henrietta has too much of a headstart for any breeding to occur (unless Felix is very talented!).

My best pal wrapped up his honeymoon today -- ruined by Henrietta. Dean passed through three days before his wedding last week, and almost flooded the ceremony out. Good thing he's not into omens!

During Dean I was in Pachuca, the capital city of Hidalgo state, North-East of Mexico City. We were supposed to be in Huehuetla (one of the hardest-hit mountain municipalities) but earlier rains had made the roads too treacherous.

Sep 4th, 2007, 08:53 AM
Well Felix arrived with a bang - luckily not in a high density area. First time ever two Cat 5s have made landfall in the same season and we've not yet hit the peak of the hurricane season.

Soe good fortune that while powerful it's small unlike Mitch and Katrina.


Hurricane Felix crashes ashore in Central America
16 hours ago

LA CEIBA, Honduras (AFP) — Hurricane Felix smashed ashore in northeastern Nicaragua Tuesday, after swelling into a potentially catastrophic category five storm, the US National Hurricane Center said.

Felix was packing fierce winds of 260 kilometers (160 miles) per hour, the center said, and could spawn devastating flooding.

Central American authorities evacuated thousands of residents and tourists from the Caribbean coasts as the massive hurricane rekindled bitter memories of Hurricane Mitch, which killed 9,000 people and displaced 2.5 million in the region -- mostly in Honduras -- in 1998.

"This system by far does not have the dimensions Hurricane Mitch had, but it still has a lot of power and energy that could cause extremely serious material damage and human loss," Honduran President Manuel Zelaya said.

Felix had lost some strength after growing from category two to five in a record 15 hours on Sunday. But it picked up steam throughout the early hours of Tuesday before powering back to reach top intensity.

Nov 2nd, 2007, 02:03 PM
What a nasty track for this beast

Atlantic provinces brace for Noel's bite


Globe and Mail Update with Associated Press

November 2, 2007 at 12:41 PM EDT

Hurricane Noel, the deadliest tropical storm of the year, is on track to hit the Maritimes with high winds and rains starting Saturday morning and continuing through Sunday, Environment Canada said Friday.

The most likely landfall is southern Nova Scotia.

The agency's Canadian Hurricane Centre in Dartmouth, N.S., issued the forecast Friday morning. Canadian meteorologists think the hurricane will lose enough strength by the time it reaches Canada to be downgraded to a severe post-tropical storm, but they warn that it will still pack a punch with intense rains and strong winds.

”We expect it to reach Atlantic Canada as what we're calling now a dangerous storm. It will not be a technical hurricane that arrives,” said Peter Bowyer, program manager at the centre.

This image provided by NOAA shows hurricane Noel as it passes 288 kilometres north-northeast of Nassau, Bahamas at 1:31 a.m. EDT Friday. (AP)

The Globe and Mail

Nevertheless, he said coastal areas could see gusts up to 130 kilometres an hour and about 100 km/h in inland areas. Ocean wave heights along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia on Saturday night will reach eight to 10 metres, with individual waves as much as twice those figures


surfs up.......http://www.freefever.com/animatedgifs/sports/animated/surfing.gif

Nov 2nd, 2007, 02:17 PM
yikes! we're smack dab in the middle of that!

Nov 3rd, 2007, 03:02 PM
This NOAA satellite image taken Saturday, 1:45 a.m. EDT shows a large swirl of clouds associated with Extratropical Hurricane Noel as it moves parallel to the eastern seaboard. (AP PHOTO/WEATHER UNDERGROUND)

Noel aims for Atlantic Canada

November 3, 2007 at 11:15 AM EDT

HALIFAX — Forecasters say a dangerous storm that is promising to pack a wet and windy punch is churning steadily along the U.S. east coast toward Atlantic Canada.

Winds are expected to pick up throughout the region hours before post-tropical storm Noel is expected to hit southwestern Nova Scotia late today.

Once it strikes, Noel is expected to lash inland areas across the region with hurricane-force winds of about 120 kilometres an hour, while coastal areas could see winds up to about 140 km/h.

Up to 70 millimetres of rain is expected to fall in parts of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, while the south coast of Newfoundland is expected to get up to eight mm of rain and winds of up to 120 km/h.
This NOAA satellite image taken Saturday, 1:45 a.m. EDT shows a large swirl of clouds associated with Extratropical Hurricane Noel as it moves parallel to the eastern seaboard.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre in Dartmouth, N.S., says the sprawling storm is expected to be at its worst overnight and into Sunday morning as it pushes through the region into the Labrador Sea.
globeandmail.com: Noel aims for Atlantic Canada (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071103.wnoelupdate1103/BNStory/National/home)

Batten the hatches comes to mind :eek:

Nov 3rd, 2007, 08:23 PM
"Gusty southwesterly winds up to 120 km/h will develop Sunday evening."

"Rough seas and heavy ponding surf will also develop along the coast of Newfoundland Sunday evening."

Nov 3rd, 2007, 08:44 PM
Fortunate timing with the neap tide.

Nov 3rd, 2007, 09:11 PM
True, MacDoc. Still, the fury of the north Atlantic is awesome any time of the year, during any phase of the tides.

Jul 7th, 2008, 11:57 PM
Let the roulette wheel spin.....


Hurricane Bertha strengthens to "major" storm
Mon Jul 7, 2008 7:40pm EDT

By Michael Christie

MIAMI (Reuters) - Strengthening far more swiftly and vigorously than predicted, Hurricane Bertha became a "major" hurricane in the open Atlantic on Monday, with sustained winds of at least 115 miles per hour (185 kph), U.S. forecasters said.

The second named storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was heading west-northwest in the direction of Bermuda when it became a Category 3 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity, the National Hurricane Center said.

Jul 23rd, 2008, 03:45 PM
While Bertha bothers Dr. G Texas and Mexico are getting hit pretty hard. Cat 2 but lotsa rain....


Dolly starts pounding Texas-Mexico coast

The Associated Press
July 23, 2008 at 12:41 PM EDT

BROWNSVILLE, Texas — Hurricane Dolly churned into a Category 2 storm as its eye neared the Texas-Mexico border Wednesday, bringing fierce winds and heavy rains that blew down signs, damaged an apartment complex and knocked out electricity to thousands.

Forecasters warned of up to 38 centimetres of rain that could produce flooding and breach levees in the heavily populated Rio Grande Valley. Thunderstorms were attributed to Dolly as far away as Houston, 640 kilometres up the Texas coastline.

In Mexico, fields were filling with water, palm trees were bent over in the wind and beaches were closed to the public.

Maria Miguel, 102, and seven family members fled their wooden shack in the fishing community of Higuerilla and spent the night at a convention centre-turned-shelter in Matamoros. "I don't know if my poor house will withstand the rain and wind," Ms. Miguel said.

Mexican soldiers made a last-minute attempt to rescue people at the mouth of the Rio Grande. The soldiers battled storm-charged waves in an inflatable raft to rescue at least one family trapped in their home, while others further inland were still refusing to go to government shelters, said Matamoros spokeswoman Leticia Montalvo.

"These are people who did not want to leave, and now they are in trouble," Ms. Montalvo said.

globeandmail.com: Dolly makes landfall in South Texas (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080723.wdolly0723/BNStory/International)

Rowdy girls this year.....

Jul 23rd, 2008, 05:02 PM
Edouard is up next, followed by Fay. We shall see.

Aug 27th, 2008, 02:32 PM
Katrina II :eek:

Gustav has the potential up to Cat 5



Hurricane Gustav: Category 5 Potential,Katrina Precident


Source: Jeff Masters Weather Underground.

Gustav's intensification potential in the Gulf of Mexico
As we saw in 2005 with Katrina and Rita, the large amounts of deep, warm water brought into the Gulf of Mexico by the Loop Current can help intensify hurricanes to Category 5 intensity.

As explained in my Loop Current tutorial, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward through the Florida Keys. The Loop Current commonly bulges out in the northern Gulf of Mexico and sometimes will shed a clockwise rotating ring of warm water that separates from the main current. This ring of warm water slowly drifts west-southwestward towards Texas or Mexico at about 3-5 km per day. This feature is called a "Loop Current Ring", "Loop Current Eddy", or "Warm Core Ring", and can provide a key source of energy to fuel rapid intensification of hurricanes that cross the Gulf.

The Loop Current itself can also fuel rapid intensification, such as happened with Hurricane Charley in 2004. When a Loop Current Eddy breaks off in the Gulf of Mexico at the height of hurricane season, it can lead to a dangerous situation where a vast reservoir of energy is available to any hurricane that might cross over. This occurred in 2005, when a Loop Current Eddy separated in July, just before Hurricane Katrina passed over and "bombed" into a Category 5 hurricane. The eddy remained in the Gulf and slowly drifted westward during September.

Hurricane Rita passed over the same Loop Current Eddy three weeks after Katrina, and also explosively deepened to a Category 5 storm.

This year, we had another Loop Current Eddy break off in July. This eddy is now positioned due south of New Orleans (Figure 2), and this eddy has similar levels of heat energy to the 2005 eddy that powered Katrina and Rita. Should Gustav pass over or just to the left of this eddy, we can expect the storm to significantly intensify.

Aug 27th, 2008, 07:21 PM
I'm going to Florida in October. Wish me luck.

Aug 27th, 2008, 08:43 PM
Ah, good choice.

Just in time for the dry season.

Aug 30th, 2008, 02:57 PM
Cat 4 and climbing - 145 mph off Cuba and heading to even warmer water once it gets into the gulf. :eek:

Apparently only 10 mph below Cat 5 at this point - New Orleans is evacutating some people already

Cuba is on the nasty quandrant just now - getting hammered by winds but the hurricane stays over the water so does not diminish :eek:

Tight eye = wicked storm....this one's classic - one can hope it stalls out but not likely :(


Aug 30th, 2008, 05:28 PM
Gustav is too 'elegant' a name for this one.

How about Goebbels?

Aug 30th, 2008, 06:49 PM
Gusto maybe.....it's now gnawing on Cuba big time.... :eek:

Caught in the act.....landfall on Cuba Cat 4 close to Cat 5


That's gonna nail Havana with the northeast quadrant


Aug 30th, 2008, 07:17 PM
By 4AM tomorrow, all roads north, out of New Orleans, will be one way. Thus, no one can travel in to NO, just out. Luckily, the state and city are taking action, not wanting to be left holding the bag once again due to inactivity in Washington.

Aug 30th, 2008, 07:27 PM
Yeah it seems to be far better organized and even if it's not a Katrina level event it puts into practice the new methods.

Apparently they have already evacuated the southern parishes near the Gulf so that there will not be a build up of traffic.

Aug 30th, 2008, 07:28 PM
Do I hear any votes for a Category 6 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir-Simpson_Hurricane_Scale)??

Aug 30th, 2008, 08:18 PM
With a predicted storm surge over 20 feet, this could be given its own category. I pray for those who are in the path of this monster.

Aug 30th, 2008, 10:33 PM
Better gas up tonight....Cat 5 all the way to the coast and right into the heart of the oil rigs.

It's heading directly over the Loop current which powers hurricanes into monsters and this is already a big beast....

So overlay the track with the oil rigs.....



Bowling for dollars with billion dollar oil rigs as pins :(

Aug 30th, 2008, 11:08 PM
I am more concerned about the people than the oil rigs, but I can see the price of gas going up next week. We shall see.

Aug 30th, 2008, 11:38 PM
They've ordered mandatory evacuation now....

Mandatory evacuations to begin Sunday morning in New Orleans

NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana (CNN) -- New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin ordered a mandatory evacuation of the city beginning 8 a.m. Sunday but urged residents to consider escaping "the mother of all storms" before then.
New Orleans residents leave Friday via Interstate 10 westbound ahead of Hurricane Gustav.

"You need to be scared," Nagin said of the Category 4 hurricane tearing along Cuba's western coast. "You need to be concerned, and you need to get your butts moving out of New Orleans right now. This is the storm of the century."

The city's west bank is to evacuate at 8 a.m.

Nagin said the city had evacuated roughly 10,000 people Saturday on buses, trains and planes, in addition to the thousands who left on their own. Buses from collection points would continue running until midnight and resume at 6 a.m. Sunday, he said. Video Watch CNN's Don Lemon report on evacuations »

"This storm is so powerful and growing more powerful every day," Nagin said. "I'm not sure we've seen anything like this."

At 8 p.m. ET, Gustav's eye was over western Cuba near Los Palacios, about 65 miles (105 kilometers) west-southwest of Havana, with sustained winds near 150 mph.

Hurricanes are ranked 1 to 5 in intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A Category 4 has winds of 131 to 155 mph and can cause extreme damage. Video Watch a report on the hurricane watch »

"This storm could be as bad as it gets," Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said Saturday afternoon. "We could see flooding even worse than we saw in Hurricane Katrina."

and then a few more wickednesses lined up across the Atlantic


Aug 31st, 2008, 12:57 AM
Bloody big storm and the outlier bands are already ashore


Aug 31st, 2008, 09:00 AM
Hopefully, FEMA will be proactive this time. Pres. Bush is not going to the Republican convention now so as to "monitor" the hurricane.

Aug 31st, 2008, 09:54 AM
If everyone else is proactive, FEMA will have little to do. Sounds like New Orleans has actually issued evacuation orders in time.

Aug 31st, 2008, 11:28 AM
Some people are staying behind because they have no money to get out of NO. May all those in that area be spared the wrath of this monster storm.

Aug 31st, 2008, 01:58 PM
Kinda spooky to see the empty freeways on a long weekend in a tourist town....

New Orleans Traffic Cameras (http://www.dotd.louisiana.gov/press/traffic_cameras/cameras_no.asp?camera=Cam5)

There is certainly a different air of preparation this time.

It was jammed outbound last night


and same stretch now


Those staying have been told bluntly they are on their own - no rescues :eek:

Dr. G there are actually more buses available for evacuation than people to fill them so money should be no reason to stay. I don't beleive there is any cost.

Aug 31st, 2008, 02:09 PM
CNN has been interviewing people who say that there is no place for them to go, they will lose their jobs if they leave, and that they are not willing to lose everything to looting once again.

Aug 31st, 2008, 02:10 PM
Now both Bush and Cheney are staying away from the Republican convention, with Bush going to Texas, Cheney staying is Washington, and McCain wanting to go to Louisiana as soon as the storm hits.

Aug 31st, 2008, 02:22 PM

Aug 31st, 2008, 03:01 PM
A very interesting interactive map, O-man. Merci.

Aug 31st, 2008, 03:05 PM
Now both Bush and Cheney are staying away from the Republican convention, with Bush going to Texas, Cheney staying is Washington, and McCain wanting to go to Louisiana as soon as the storm hits.

Came across this post on Walt Handelsman's site:
Pulitzer Prize-winning political cartoonist and animator

RNC: Gustav
Well, I'm sitting in my Minneapolis hotel room basically tearing up a bunch of funny cartoon ideas that just don't work in light of Gustav bearing down on New Orleans. I spoke with my old editor and close friend, Jim Amoss, at The Times-Picayune in New Orleans last night. I asked what the feeling was down there and he summed it up this way: "Just pray for us, Walt."
The sting of Katrina will never leave the souls of New Orleanians who lived through the storm and suffered, and continue to suffer, through the unbelievably slow rebuilding of their city and their lives. The idea of another killer hurricane hitting almost three years to the day of Katrina must be brutal for them. Many of my friends have fled to Mississippi. Let's just hope that somehow the storm weakens.
Meanwhile...Up here, the delegates, the media and the event planners are in kind of a weird holding pattern. Will the convention be cut short. One rumor is that John McCain may not come at all. Bush and Cheney have cancelled and many of the delegates wandering around the hotel seem out of sorts. They came here to have a party and realize now that it will be a totally different deal.

More later---Walt

"Will the convention be cut short. One rumor is that John McCain may not come at all."

Aug 31st, 2008, 03:06 PM
'Nother very good tracking map based on google

IBISEYE.com -- Your 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Map Source -- Tracking path of Hurricane Gustav (http://www.ibiseye.com/)

If you click on the Show GOES button on the right it will show the satellite overlay.

Aug 31st, 2008, 03:25 PM
MacDoc, that was an interesting interactive map as well. I recall my two years teaching in Waycross, Georgia, which was about 40 miles from Jacksonville, Florida, having to watch the path of a hurricane that was headed for Jacksonville. It went right over us, and I have never before experienced the "eye of the hurricane" effect when all got still and brightened up a bit ............ before the really bad part of the hurricane hit.

Aug 31st, 2008, 04:13 PM
My only brush with a hurricane was Hazel and I still clearly remember ( I was 7 ) going outside with my Dad and it was very ominous and of course hammered parts of Toronto and a bit north.

Aug 31st, 2008, 06:00 PM
Yeh, I think Hurrican Hazel dulled the twinkle in my father's eye, many years before he was married and before my subsequent birth.

Aug 31st, 2008, 07:40 PM
I had just turned 6 when Hurricane Hazel made it to the US. All we had in New York City were record high winds. The storm was so bad that gusts of wind forced the abandonment of the control tower at La Guardia Airports. I lived only about 20 minutes away from La Guardia Airport. My only memory was going outside with my father and jumping .......... making note of how much I was being pushed back by the high winds. I recall it uprooted a tree outside of a friend's home.

Aug 31st, 2008, 07:43 PM
I also recall that back in 1960, Hurricane Donna created a storm tide in the New York Harbor that caused extensive pier damage.

Aug 31st, 2008, 07:44 PM
Just spoke to my wife's brother, who lives outside of Calgary. It is raining and going down to 3C tonight, and he expects the possibility of some wet snow out on his ranch. :(

Aug 31st, 2008, 07:48 PM
We had just moved to Scarborough in '53 (I was 13), but I remember my future BIL and I, leaning about 40º into the wind.

Aug 31st, 2008, 08:10 PM
Gustav arriving a bit ahead of schedule


anyone watching CNN.....winds are already pretty stiff.

Aug 31st, 2008, 08:34 PM
Yes, was watching CNN when the Mayor of NO declared that any looter caught would be sent "directly to Angola". I had to do a double-take until he explained that Angola Prison was a state facility.

Aug 31st, 2008, 09:23 PM
I don't get CNN so we only get bits and pieces here and there on other networks. Still, I got enough to know it has no got past a cat 3 which must be a relief for many who fled fearing the worst.

Aug 31st, 2008, 11:20 PM
Sinc, stay up to date with CNN online at CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News (http://www.cnn.com/)

Aug 31st, 2008, 11:21 PM
CNN Live (http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/weather/2008/08/31/vo.cuba.gustav.aftermath.ap?iref=mpvideosview)

I don't get CNN either and when I called tonight to have it added to my cable lineup, they said it would require a tech visit.

CNN Live seems to be just that - live CNN.


Sep 1st, 2008, 07:38 AM
CNN has people on the ground in the direct path of the hurricane, as well in New Orleans. That takes courage and dedication to one's profession.

Sep 1st, 2008, 07:38 AM
The latest from CNN
Hundreds of thousands flee coastal Louisiana ahead of Gustav - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/09/01/gustav/index.html)

Sep 1st, 2008, 07:40 AM
So far, this is the only good news to speak of just now.

"(CNN) -- Hurricane Gustav began to lash the southern Louisiana coastline early Monday as it moved closer to an expected midday landfall, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

While forecasters said it could intensify a bit before moving inland, it will not likely be the Category 4 storm that had been predicted -- a possibility that added urgency to mass evacuation orders in recent days."

Sep 1st, 2008, 02:50 PM
How lucky is the U.S. that Cuba was there to take the edge off. Gustav hit the Western end of the island as a Category 4 hurricane. Some 86,000 homes are either heavily damaged or destroyed. The worst hurricane to hit that part of the island in over 50 years.

Heartbreaking. Read this report (http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/20080831/wl_mcclatchy/3033040_1) about Las Palacios, the first community hit by the storm.

Amazingly, no loss of life. Gotta give Cuba credit - it's Civil Defense system is perfection... they moved 250,000 people out of the path of the storm. Before hitting Cuba, Gustav had killed 81 people.


Sep 1st, 2008, 04:05 PM
And our stupid Bush lap puppy gov offers no aid to Cuba which gets hit with a far stronger storm but sends a plane to please buddy George :mad:

Sep 1st, 2008, 04:34 PM


Sep 1st, 2008, 05:05 PM
You lookin' for traffic cameras?? :lmao:

Sep 1st, 2008, 07:01 PM
Yeah they hung in most of the night - back in action now - no traffic tho


New Orleans Traffic Cameras (http://www.dotd.louisiana.gov/press/traffic_cameras/cameras_no.asp?camera=Cam5)

Looks like they are evacuating anyone left in one area where a levee is about to break.

Plaquemines Parish levee overtopped, subdivision threatened - Hurricane Gustav News and Storm Tracking - NOLA.com (http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/09/plaquemines_parish_levee_threa.html)

Sep 2nd, 2008, 06:15 PM
Here we go again, and again and.....

Tropical quartet: 4 storms with more to come

By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer 1 hour, 15 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - The tropics seem to be going crazy what with the remnants of Gustav, the new threat from Hanna, a strengthening Ike and newcomer Josephine. Get used to it.

Hurricane experts say all the weather ingredients, which normally fluctuate, are set on boil for the formation of storms. And it's going to stay that way for a while, they said.

Four named storms at the same time is a bit odd, but not unprecedented, meteorologists said. In 1995 five named storms lived simultaneously. And in 1998 there were four hurricanes at the same. But wait and see what happens next.

"Give us time, this is only Tuesday," said meteorologist Dennis Feltgren, spokesman for an all-too-busy hurricane center in Miami.

The peak of hurricane season isn't until Sept. 10 and this season already has 10 named storms, which is the long-term average for an entire season.

"Normally in an active season, there are bunches of hurricanes and lulls. It just doesn't seem like there's been bunches of lulls. I sure hope we're not talking (hurricanes) Christmas Eve," said meteorology professor Hugh Willoughby at Florida International University.

Two hurricane prognosticators — including William Gray, who pioneered the field of storm season forecasts — predicted Tuesday that this month would be almost twice as busy as an average September. They forecast five named storms, four of them hurricanes and two of them major.

These latest predictions cover only September and are not a revision of the season-long forecast, which called for a total of nine Atlantic hurricanes through November.

The wind and water conditions that led to the September update will likely continue for the next month or so, said Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, co-author of the new report. But if history is any guide, those conditions should change sometime in October, he said.

Wind shear — wind coming from a different direction at high altitude — often weakens a hurricane or at least puts the lid on some developing storms. But at the moment, the only wind shear in the entire Atlantic hurricane region is around Hanna, Feltgren said. So a major factor keeping other storms from forming or strengthening is absent, he said.

Waves of clouds and thunderstorms this time of year head westward from northern Africa every couple days. Some become tropical storms and hurricanes and others just die down. Gustav, Hanna, Ike and Josephine all started as those waves. What's different right now is that all those waves from Africa head right into a brew of air and water conditions ideal for strengthening, Klotzbach.

First, in the deep tropics, certain winds are blowing from the west and in the subtropics they are coming from the east, creating a propensity for spinning in between — which is the main hurricane development region — Klotzbach said. The current "spin factor" is among the top 20 percent in history, he said.

Add to that the fact that water temperatures are slightly warmer than normal, Klotzbach and Feltgren said. Warm water serves as fuel for storms.

And finally, Klotzbach factored into his forecast how the season has already been so far this year: Extremely busy. That means the atmosphere is unstable, which is good for storm development. He said the atmospheric pressure in the hurricane formation area is among the lowest it has ever been and storms are giant low pressure systems.

So Klotzbach advises to keep watching those waves coming off Africa: "There may be one today or tomorrow. But certainly today we have enough to worry about with Hanna, Ike, Josephine and Gustav remnants to keep us all busy." :eek:

Tropical quartet: 4 storms with more to come - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080902/ap_on_sc/hurricane_forecast;_ylt=ApySY41AU7XB3nTRcOFNlRZH2o cA)

Sep 4th, 2008, 12:46 AM
It looks like Ike is getting stronger and the path is right behind Hanna.

Those poor folks.


Sep 4th, 2008, 01:15 AM
Yeah Cuba in particular - the intercept of the Cat 4 almost Cat 5 Gustav help blunt it a bit for New Orleans - now Hanna is spinning up at the other end of the island :eek:

No shortage of water for the reservoirs I bet.

and there there is Haiti

Hanna leaves 61 dead in Haiti as more storms brew in Atlantic

3 hours ago

PORT-AU-PRINCE (AFP) — Helicopters hovered over the flooded Haitian city of Gonaives on Wednesday plucking survivors from rooftops as authorities reported that Tropical Storm Hanna left 61 people dead.

Hanna is the third major storm to pound the area in as many weeks, and comes as two more storm systems churned in the Atlantic -- and with Hanna threatening to strengthen to hurricane status.

The Gonaives flooding raised memories of the devastation caused by Tropical Storm Jeanne in 2004, when about 3,000 people were killed, mostly in the northern city.

"Something must be done quickly," said Germain Michelet, a priest who took refuge from the flooding on the second floor of the archbishop's office in Gonaives.

"I don't know how much longer we will remain alive," he told AFP. "If we are forced to go through another night under these conditions, there will not be many survivors."

The UN peacekeeping mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) carried out numerous helicopter rescue missions in Gonaives, saving many lives.

"We have managed to recover two dozen people who were trapped on rooftops," MINUSTAH spokeswoman Sophie Boutaud de la Combe told AFP, adding that nine wounded were flown to the capital for treatment.

The Gonaives hospital was also flooded, a doctor told local radio. "The patients are grouped in one room," the unnamed doctor said. He added: "The situation is critical."

Haiti is especially prone to flooding and landslides due to widespread deforestation on its section of the island of Hispaniola, which it shares with the Dominican Republic.

Tens of thousands of people in both countries were forced to take refuge due to the driving rain and flooding, though there were no casualties reported in the Dominican Republic.

Hanna struck Haiti one week after it was hit by Hurricane Gustav, which killed 77 people. Two weeks ago, Tropical Storm Fay sparked flooding in Haiti that left about 40 people dead.


Two other storms were churning in the Atlantic.

Ike strengthened to a Category Three hurricane just three hours after it moved from being a tropical storm to gaining hurricane status.

And Tropical Storm Josephine, in the eastern Atlantic 605 kilometers (375 miles) west of the southernmost Cape Verde islands, was expected to weaken as it moved west-northwest Thursday.
AFP: Hanna leaves 61 dead in Haiti as more storms brew in Atlantic (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5i_6NLjQ_U3Rg43EEH1fPbXcArUNg)

The insurance adjusters must be quivering under their beds....

can't keep up....

Ike now Cat 4 - luckily not near land...

ke grows to Category 4 hurricane, Hanna strengthens
Wed Sep 3, 2008 11:39pm EDT


By Joseph Guyler Delva

PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) - Hurricane Ike strengthened rapidly into an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane in the open Atlantic on Wednesday and Tropical Storm Hanna intensified to a lesser degree as it swirled over the Bahamas toward the southeast U.S. Coast.

Ike posed no immediate threat to land but strengthened explosively, growing in the space of a few hours from a tropical storm to an intense Category 4 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale.

Ike had top sustained winds of 135 mph (215 kph) as it swept across the open Atlantic 610 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. It was moving west-northwest near 17 mph (28 kph).

Sep 6th, 2008, 11:01 PM
Poor Cuba right in the cross hairs of a major


Sep 7th, 2008, 12:13 AM
Still 17C at nearly 2AM, but the winds are picking up.

Sep 7th, 2008, 06:01 AM
5 am and Ike is still packing 135 mph winds and not far off shore of Cuba


and a perfect eye - :eek:

Then there is Haiti :( - three weeks - three storms 500 dead already and Cat 4 Ike just offshore dumping more rain.

This is Haiti BEFORE Ike which will be hitting now


Sep 7th, 2008, 09:39 AM
Sadly, Haiti is the country in the least shape to help its people.

Sep 7th, 2008, 03:57 PM
I'm actually more worried about Cuba.

The US is barely out of fixing up Katrina's devastation of a Cat 3 3 years ago - Cuba is about to get hit with the second Category 4 dead on within a week. :eek: :(

Sep 7th, 2008, 08:12 PM
According to CubaMark, Cuba at least knows how to deal with these sorts of situations. However, I see your point that too much of any such weather is not good for anyone.

Sep 7th, 2008, 09:29 PM
Yes but two Cat 4s in a week are not in anyone's planning - they are evacuating 1/2 million...

Toll in Haiti from Ike climbs to 600; Cuba evacuates half-million

16 hours ago

HAVANA (AFP) — Hurricane Ike took aim at Cuba Sunday after leaving 20 people dead in Haiti, where fatalities from a succession of powerful storms in the past few weeks now tops 600.

Ike was downgraded Sunday from a Category Four hurricane to a still potentially devastating Category Three, as Cuba evacuated hundreds of thousands in a frantic bid to evade the storm's fury.

Officials in Haiti meanwhile, continued aid operations in the flood-stricken town of Gonaives, which has borne the brunt of recent flooding and seen untold misery and destruction .

Ike plowed across the low-lying Turks and Caicos overnight as a powerful Category Four storm, causing some injuries and extensive damage on the British territory and tourist haven, Bahamas radio reported.

The hurricane then raked the southeastern Bahamian island of Great Inagua, toppling trees, blowing off roofs, causing an island-wide power failure and forcing many of its one thousand residents to seek refuge in shelters, a resident told AFP by telephone.

With winds decreasing slightly to 120 miles (195 kilometers) per hour, the storm was forecast to roar ashore in eastern Cuba Sunday night as a Category Three "major hurricane" on the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale.

But the immediate concern was its effect on Haiti , where a humanitarian crisis was unfolding after flooding from Ike and previous storms Hanna and Gustav left around 600 people dead and thousands in desperate need of food, clean water and shelter.

With winds near 215 kilometers (135 miles) per hour, the storm's outer bands lashed Haiti's vulnerable northwest coast with torrential rain.

Hundreds of bodies were found in flood-prone Gonaives, a town of 350,000 in northwestern Haiti, after a five-meter (16-foot) wall of water and mud engulfed much of the town. The storm followed on the heels of Hanna, last week's massive storm.

United Nations peacekeepers on Saturday evacuated several thousand residents from Gonaives, a local official said, but thousands more are still awaiting relief.

Some 650,000 Haitians have been affected by the flooding, including 300,000 children, and the task of delivering crucial aid has been complicated by dismal transport conditions, according to UNICEF.

Officials said 200,000 people have been without food and clean water, many for four days.

At least 20 people were found dead Sunday in Cabaret, 13 of them children, when a torrent of muddy water raged through the village, the region's parliamentarian said.

"What has happened here is unimaginable," deputy Pierre-Gerome Valcine told AFP from Cabaret, 35 kilometers (22 miles) north of the capital Port-Au-Prince.

"Many homes were destroyed in Cabaret, and we have seen some bodies of children in the water," added a journalist for UN radio who spent the night on the roof of his house.

Massive flooding over the past week in the poorest country in the Americas has triggered a humanitarian crisis that was worsening by the day -- and prompted prayers from Pope Benedict XVI.

"I want to remember the dear population of Haiti, greatly distressed in recent days by passing hurricanes," Benedict told pilgrims on the Italian island of Sardinia.

Continuing stormy weather hampered relief efforts Sunday, when heavy rains led to the collapse of a key bridge which severed the only viable land route to Gonaives.

The bridge gave way overnight at the town of Mirebalais in central Haiti, forcing three trucks loaded with emergency supplies and bound for Saint-Marc, where thousands of desperate flood refugees from Gonaives were crowding into shelters, to turn back, according to a World Food Programme official.

Many bridges in other areas of Haiti have also collapsed, homes have been washed away and crops ravaged.

Meanwhile, more than 600,000 people in Cuba began evacuations Sunday ahead of the Ike's arrival, including 9,210 foreign tourists who were moved out of Varadero, a tourism mecca about 120 kilometers (75 miles) east of Havana.

Cuban Vice President Jose Ramon Machado, meeting with authorities in Holguin, urged people to "carry out the evacuation in an orderly and speedy fashion," and to take steps to "avoid the loss of life."

Ike was expected to eventually careen past Florida into the Gulf of Mexico and sweep toward Louisiana and the storm-battered city of New Orleans as early as Tuesday.

5 METER storm surge :eek: and they were not even in the path...

Sep 7th, 2008, 10:11 PM
Hanna is dumping on us right now. Pouring rain, but I have seen worse -- in Waycross, Georgia during full hurricanes.

Sep 7th, 2008, 11:37 PM
I'm on a bus to Mexico City in half an hour, and at 12:35pm I have a seat on a flight to Havana. IF they let us take off, IF the José Martí airport is open, I'll be in town just in time to experience Ike. :o

Whenever I find access to internet, will send along a follow-up.


Sep 8th, 2008, 08:26 AM
I doubt you'll get in.

Ike is running the length of Cuba, East to West.

No stone unturned. ;)

Sep 8th, 2008, 09:25 AM
Good luck, Mark. Pax, mi amigo.

Sep 8th, 2008, 09:30 AM
Yeah be safe - not a good time to fly into Cuba.....

Deadly Hurricane Ike rakes Cuba

Sep 08, 2008 09:17 AM

Will Weissert

CAMAGUEY, Cuba – Hurricane Ike roared across Cuba on Monday, tearing off roofs and sending towering waves crashing into buildings.

Officials say some 900,000 Cubans have fled to shelters or higher ground, while in the capital of Havana residents in decaying historic buildings were preparing for a direct hit.

Ike made landfall as a fearsome Category-3 hurricane late Sunday night after raking the Bahamas and worsening floods in Haiti that have already killed 319 people.

It was expected to tear across almost the entire length of Cuba, then enter the Gulf of Mexico poised to strike somewhere along the coast of Texas or Louisiana.

Cuba's National Meteorological Institute said heavy rains were soaking the entire eastern half of the island of 11 million people, and dangerous storm surges were threatening communities along most of the northeastern coast.

State television broadcast images of the storm surge washing over coastal homes in the easternmost city of Baracoa. It said huge waves surged over buildings as tall as five storeys and that dozens of dwellings were damaged beyond repair. :eek:

TheStar.com | World | Deadly Hurricane Ike rakes Cuba (http://www.thestar.com/News/World/article/492600)

Sep 8th, 2008, 11:30 AM
It said huge waves surged over buildings as tall as five storeys and that dozens of dwellings were damaged beyond repair.

That can't be good. :-(

Sep 8th, 2008, 11:33 AM
Yeah many of the coast areas are shallow and with a 15-20' surge and waves it's clearly a catastrophe.

Sep 8th, 2008, 12:08 PM

Sep 8th, 2008, 12:13 PM
The province of Newfoundland and Labrador received so much rain in the past day due to Hanna coming over our province, that the hydro plants are saying that they now have so much water that they will be able to generate enough power to provide electricity to the entire island section of NL for three weeks, saving 315,000 barrels of oil.

Sep 11th, 2008, 11:11 PM
Is this the reason everyone is filling their cars with gas tonight??? _ lineups everywhere :confused:


apparently so....

Residents in the US state of Texas have begun to evacuate as Hurricane Ike churns through the Gulf of Mexico.

About one million people have been advised to leave their homes, and the authorities have laid on more than 1,000 buses to facilitate the exodus.

Meteorologists warned Ike could develop into a major hurricane before hitting the Texas coast late on Friday.

Ike has killed more than 70 people in the Caribbean, with Haiti and Cuba particularly badly hit.

The US has pledged $10m (£5.7m) in aid to Haiti, where the UN estimates 800,000 people are in temporary shelters.

And Washington offered $100,000 in initial aid to Cuba, whose government has been subject to a US trade embargo for four decades.

Cuba turned the offer down, asking instead that the US sells it supplies on credit.

Supplies hit

Men board up a house in Galveston, Texas (11/09/2008)
People have been boarding up their property in Galveston, Texas
National Hurricane Center (NHC) projections show Ike reaching the US coast by late on Friday, but say the storm's path could veer.

They say Texas could be lashed with 130mph (208km/h) winds and a 20ft (6m) storm surge above normal tide levels as the storm approaches the coast.

NHC warned that because the storm is so large, weather along the coast is expected to deteriorate long before it hits land.

Tropical storm force winds currently extend up to 275 miles (445KM) from the Ike's centre.

Almost all energy production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut down as a precaution, but the US department of energy said the storm was expected to miss most of the installations.

At 1500 GMT forecasters said the eye of the storm was about 470 miles (760km) east of Galveston on the Texas coast, moving at about 10mph (17 km/h).

The mayor of Galveston, Lyda Ann Thomas, has issued a mandatory evacuation order for the city and said no shelters will be opened.

"Those who stay here and don't voluntary evacuate, we are asking to simply stay at home," she said.

The city is providing 75 buses to transport city resident to the state capital, Austin.

Several other counties along the coast have announced mandatory or voluntary evacuations.
BBC NEWS | Americas | Evacuations as Ike approaches US (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7609878.stm)

Sep 11th, 2008, 11:26 PM
Yup all the gas stations around here are jam packed with folks trying to fill up before the price hike. We get hosed yet again.

Granted I hope the folks in the path of the storm I feel sorry for.


Sep 12th, 2008, 12:01 AM
Yeah I can see why :eek:

Gas prices predicted to rise 12.9 cents a litre Friday

Article Comments (141)

September 11, 2008 at 8:11 PM EDT
Liberal MP Dan McTeague says drivers in Toronto and Western Canada will face the largest one-day price increase he's ever seen on Friday, when pump prices could jump as much as 12.9 cents per litre.

Mr. McTeague, who is known for being a consumer advocate about gas prices, predicts the massive increase for the Greater Toronto Area, Ottawa, Calgary and Kelowna, B.C., while he expects prices in Montreal to go up nine cents.

Gas prices ranged between $1.21 and $1.299 per litre in Toronto Thursday night; Mr. McTeague predicts an average price of $1.366 per litre by Friday morning.

and this is getting into terrorizing terroritory

This storm is s big that there is already a 6' storm surge....wait for it...hitting New Orleans ...... which is not even in its path.

Damn - strong language
Weather service warns of 'certain death' from Ike
Updated Thu. Sep. 11 2008 11:15 PM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

The National Weather Service has warned residents in certain parts of coastal Texas, they face "certain death" if they don't flee before the imminent arrival of Hurricane Ike.

The strong language came from a weather advisory regarding the area around Galveston Bay, Texas, which could see water surge levels of almost seven metres.

""Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes will face certain death," the advisory said. "All neighborhoods ... and possibly entire coastal communities ... will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide."

23 foot storm surge!!!!!!!!!!!....... :eek:

CTV.ca | Weather service warns of 'certain death' from Ike (http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080911/ike_storm_080911/20080911?hub=TopStories)

Sep 12th, 2008, 07:37 AM
1900 hurricane that hit Galveston was the worst natural disaster ever to hit the US.


why Galveston Bay is so vulnerable

this track look familiar :(


good story of the storm here including eye witnesses - of course there was no warning

Long and detailed read

The utter destruction of Galveston and surrounding areas had begun. Through the night buildings were dashed by waves and torn by winds; debris swirled in a mad dervish, crashing through windows and walls and killing animals and people all across the city. Nearly every Galvestonian feared for their lives and for at about 20 percent of the population those fears were realized.

Overnight, the wind steadily diminished in velocity from their evening hurricane force, and at 8 am the morning of the 9th, they blew from the south at a relatively gentle 32 km/h (20 mph). With the dawn, the survivors looked out on "one of the most horrible sights that ever a civilized people looked upon. About three thousand homes, nearly half the residence portion of Galveston, had been completely swept out of existence, and probably more than six thousand persons had passed from life to death during that dreadful night" in Cline's words.

Weather Events: The 1900 Galveston Hurricane (http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/events/1900hurr.htm)

Current defence

In 1900, the highest point in Galveston was only 8.7 feet above sea level and the hurricane easily inundated the city with a storm surge of 15 feet.

With the terrible memories of the 1900 hurricane in mind, the people of Galveston began an unprecedented effort to protect their city from the next "big one." In 1902, they began constructing a 16-foot thick, 17-foot high sea wall covering three miles of oceanfront. They also began the monumental task of raising the entire island by as much as eight feet with sand dredged from Galveston Bay. Today's sea wall has been extended to a length of 10 miles of oceanfront to protect the heart of the city.

one can hope but the storm surge predicted is going overtop that wall by 5'+ not counting waves...no wonder the evacuation order.

Sep 12th, 2008, 08:16 AM
Notice all the structures were made of wood. ;)

Oh, gas this morning .... $1.37:8. Happy Motoring.

Sep 12th, 2008, 10:53 AM
Wood or not if you are in a house with 20' of water ...:eek:

Part of the big nasty is the size of the storm - some eye witnesses who are on the coast are seeing large storm surge effects and there is 24 hours and 400 miles yet to go.

Because the storm is so wide and the shape of the gulf it is funnelling the surge ahead of it...and then it will go right into Galveston Bay. :what:


cool animation

then a long time later and much diminished we get dumped on

Sep 12th, 2008, 10:54 AM
This is Galveston strand right now..... storm is 400 miles away


Sep 12th, 2008, 11:35 AM
What a shame - I've been to that street briefly and if I'm not mistaken, if you go a couple of blocks up and turn right, you'll be only a block from the bay. When I visited, there was a huge (what do I know about ships :o ) cruise ship docked (parked?) just around the corner.

We ate in a restaurant right on the water and walked out to get a closer look at the ship. There was no 17 foot sea wall protecting that restaurant.

We travelled there by bus, so it was hard to see much during the trip except the guard rails on the interstate, but the guide told us where the seawall was and at times we could see the gulf - it was not far away and not far below us.

We saw one home that had sort of survived the 1900 hurricane. We were told that the main floor filled with sediment that was pushed ashore, so the owners just built another floor on top. Also, the place was surrounded by a spiked iron fence - the kind you see in haunted house pictures - but the fence was only a couple of feet high. The guide said the fence was originally 8 feet high but most of it was buried under the silt from that storm.

What a monster this one looks like.


Sep 12th, 2008, 12:04 PM

updated 29 minutes ago

A perfect eye and enormous!!!!!! 900 miles across,

Even Houston is at heavy risk now -

Sep 12th, 2008, 01:18 PM
I have been to Houston and Galvaston, and I don't see how Galvaston can take that huge surge of water. Houston will have major flooding due to the paving over with concrete much of their green spaces for houses, roads, shopping centers, etc, and the dry summer they had which means runoff rather than absorption of the rain. We shall see.

Sep 12th, 2008, 01:24 PM
7 m storm surge is just unimaginable. When there is a storm surge of 2-3 feet here we have problems.

Galvaston's biggest problem is that it is built on a barrier island/delta. It's flat as a pancake and at sea level essentially.

Sep 12th, 2008, 01:54 PM
I have been to Houston and Galvaston, and I don't see how Galvaston can take that huge surge of water. Houston will have major flooding due to the paving over with concrete much of their green spaces for houses, roads, shopping centers, etc, and the dry summer they had which means runoff rather than absorption of the rain. We shall see.

Houston could actually benefit from a 7 metre storm surge provided they hired a city planner before beginning reconstruction. Imagine a city were major roads actually go somewhere, building numbers mean something, whole neighbourhoods are not isolated by parallel freeways located a block apart. Finding anything in Houston is a nightmare. In most cities if you don't know your way around, you call a cab. Not in Houston. If the driver is lucky enough to find where you are, he won't be able to find where you're going unless it's GWB International airport and even then you're probably out of luck because any rain - and it's rains every day - the road to the airport will be flooded.

But the toll road is always open. Too bad it doesn't go anywhere.

You all know I'm jesting. Houston is a vibrant, alive city and if it's planning is not up to my definition of organization, they don't seem to care.

Galveston is such a pretty place. I hate to see it inundated.


Sep 12th, 2008, 02:36 PM
Margaret, all we had to find was the Astrodome, which was not difficult to find.

Sep 12th, 2008, 02:38 PM
I'm alive. Landed on Monday afternoon in bright sunshine, but with clouds gathering. Hot and humid. By 10:00pm Monday night, Havana had heavy rains and the electricity was cut off (done as a precautionary measure, on purpose, to prevent further damage to the system and from people touching downed wires). Electricity was only returned to Centro Habana late Thursday afternoon. Limited internet access - only today - Friday - I walked over to the 2nd-poshest hotel here (Melia Cohiba) and found pretty decent high-speed wireless internet in the lobby for $6/hr.

Havana was mostly spared, only downed trees, power lines, and a few "derrumbes" (very old buildings in a state of disrepair that crumble to dust after the water that penetrates during the storms dries up).

But the rest of the island? Whoo boy. I'll leave it to Susan Hurlich (below) to cover. Susan is a Canadian journalist who has lived in Cuba for over 25 years, and is well connected to the various information sources.

I'll simply add - as Susan goes into detail - that Cuba's Civil Defense network is second-to-none in the world. Absolutely amazing work, evacuating not only people, but belongings. The recuperation effort is well underway, but the damage to the agricultural crops and rural infrastructure is immense.

The Canadian Network on Cuba has a hurricane relief effort underway (money and construction materials to be shipped). Their webmaster isn't on the job, however, so check out the site of the Nova Scotia-Cuba Association (NSCUBA) with info on donations: www.nscuba.org (http://www.nscuba.org)

From: Susana Hurlich
Subject: post-Hurricane Ike - update #6
Date: Wed, 10 Sep 2008 16:55:28 -0700

Hola all:

Cuba has been, and continues to be, devastated by Hurricane Ike.

The only thing, and without question the most important thing, that hasn't been devastated is the will and determination of the Cuban people to surpass this disaster and go forward.

There's lots of information circulating in the international press about the extent of damages. But there are perhaps a few things that haven't, and it's these I want to briefly mention to give you an idea of the extent of damages.

There's not one province that has gotten off easy. More destruction, less destruction - but all fourteen provinces and the special municipality of Isla de la Juventud have suffered from Hurricane Ike. And some have suffered a double impact, especially Pinar del Rio, which is still - as I write this - under Alarma Ciclonica (Hurricane Alarm) due to the intense rains and tropical storm winds that are still hitting the province. All of the province's 14 municipalities are suffering, but the two municipalities of Los Palacios (south) and Las Palmas (north) have taken the brunt of both Gustav and Ike.

The eye of Ike has left Cuba, but the body is still kicking strong. Imagine: as of about 4pm, it's*slowly growing in size and intensity. Sustained winds of 150 kph. Still category 1 but category 2 starts at 154 kph sustained winds.*Its*bands of*tropical storm winds and rains*extend 335 km (radius) covering all of Pinar del Rio with rains*reaching to the western part of Camaguey province in central Cuba. And we're being told to brace for another 12-24 hours of rains. In Habana, we're still getting occasional gusts up to over 80 kph.*All western coastal areas*have*been evacuated due to inundations. Last night, for instance, ocean waters penetrated two km inland in the Batabano area, on the central southern coast of Provincia Habana.

Lots of "firsts", but for which no one will get a ribbon:

As of 4:30 yesterday afternoon, over 2.5 million people - or almost 21 percent of the country's population of some 12 million - have been evacuated. And the number is slowly growing, as rivers that have never flooded before leave their banks, fattened by torrential rains,*and dams that are fill and spilling over contribute even more to the flooding. 2.5 million! In the 17 years I've been in Cuba, including through many hurricanes, I don't remember that many people ever being evacuated before. That's an immense undertaking involving organization, coordination and cooperation. Significantly, over two million of these people were able to get shelter in the homes of family and friends, yet another indication of the incredible solidarity that is an everyday functioning part of Cuban society.

The damage to food crops as well as export crops is extensive. In Villa Clara, some 70% of plantains - all kinds -*have been knocked down, with maize, papaya and yuca also seriously affected. In Holguin, plantain, yuca, vegetables and beans have been affected. In Santiago de Cuba, damages to plantain, yuca, maize, plus sugar cane has been burned by the winds. Lots of coffee beans have fallen off trees and, weather permitting, they'll try to save what they can. In Ciego de Avila, a strong producer of plantains for the entire country, the greatest damage has occurred in the agricultural sector, in particular - but not only - to the plantain crops. In Cienfuegos, plantain and sweet potato are affected, as well as vegetables and citrus such as grapefruit and orange. The one crop that hasn't been affected is malanga - a tuber kind of like potato. And they're trying to recuperate coffee beans that have fallen on the ground in the Escambray Mountains. The same in Baracoa and Maisi, both in Guantanamo, which are key (actually, the main) coffee-producing areas in Cuba.

Housing has been seriously affected everywhere. For example, preliminary reports from Holguin indicate that over 150,000 houses have been affected, of which 37,000 have been totally destroyed. The province of Las Tunas says that nothing like Ike has ever hit the province during the last fifty years. In some municipalities, 80% of the housing stock has been affected. I can't even begin to estimate how many hundreds of thousands of houses have been either damaged or destroyed on a national scale! The final numbers are bound to be high.

And the rains! That's the most serious part of Ike right now, even more than the winds. In the Escambray, over 500 mm has fallen in some areas. Some communities are still incomunicado due to roads blocked with trees. But before Ike arrived, experienced personnel, including health specialists, had been sent to these mountain communities, along with additional food stocks, in anticipation of such problems, as Hurricane Fay, which affected Cienfuegos just before Gustav, had already affected electricity networks in the Escambray. The beautiful area of Las Terrazas, in Pinar del Rio - which many of you have no doubt visited, got over 400 mm of rain in the last 24 hours, as have many*other areas in the province - and elsewhere in the coutnry. Pinar*is completely without electricity. Vinales and many other areas are completely incomunicado.*To the imapct of Gustav is being added the impact of Ike. Some people in Pinar del Rio were even asking if Ike is returning, as they're without communication or up-to-date access to information and the rains seem worse than before!

Everywhere in the country, dams are full and overflowing, causing inundations - still - in low zones, which are fully evacuated. In Las Tunas, before Ike passed, the province was experiencing a drought, with dams only 50% full. Now, all dams are spilling over. A first: the Bulgara Dam in Camaguey, built 22 years old, has NEVER been full, but now, after Ike, it's full and spilling for the first time since it was constructed. And this story is repeated everywhere.

Also, for the first time since it was built, the carretera central, Cuba's main central highway, has flooded. For those of you who know Cuba, the flooding covers a 3.5 km length at Aguada de Pasajeros, where the central highway - that is the main road link between west and east, crosses with the main highway from Cienfuegos in the south to Matanzas in northwest, is so full of water that all traffic has been stopped, and it's anticipated that it'll be closed for at least three or so days. This has never happened before and the images are impressive! Flooding has been caused by overflowing rivers in the area, that have never flooded like this before now.

One bit of very good news, though, to come out of Cienguegos is that the new "more hurricane proof" houses that were built to replace coastal settlements that had been completely demolished by Hurricane Dennis (2005) were able to withstand Ike. This is very good news indeed!

Jose Rubiera, the head of Cuba's weather forecast department, was asked if Cuba has ever had a hurricane that has touched every part of the country as has Ike. He replied that Hurricane Dennis (2005) entered Granma and then blasted up the centre of Cuba, but that the eastern part of Cuba has never had a hurricane as strong as Ike. Flora (1963) also affected a great part of Cuba, especially the east, but it was more rain than wind - unlike Ike which has been both plus heavy coastal inundations.

Assistance is coming from everywhere, both inside and outside the country. Examples: Santiago de Cuba has sent brigades to help Baracoa and Holguin. Camaguey, which has brigades in Pinar del Rio who went there after Gustav, has told those brigades to stay put and continue to help reconstruction efforts in that sister province. Camaguey, which has gone at least 25 years without being hit by a hurricane of this magnitude and which says they don't have the same experience confronting them as does Pinar, has reached out a very substantial hand of solidarity to los pinarenos.

And from overseas. You already know about the assistance from Russia: food, huge tents, construction materials. And $500,000 from poor little Timor Leste. Mexico is offering aid in housing and electricity. Uruguay is making a call to the international community to help Cuba with foods, medicines and construction materials. Brazil is putting together an interministerial Assistance Group to help both Cuba and Haiti. After Gustav, solidarity and offers of help were already coming from China, Venezuela, Bolivia, Argentina, Spain, Brazil Mexico, Guatemala, the Cayman Islands, Peru, Santa Lucia, etc.

Cuba, that has the will and determination, will indeed need a great deal of material assistance for their reconstruction efforts. As Cubans themselves, as well as the authorities, no corner within the country is too isolated, no loss too great, to not get the necessary response. Tonight, on Mesa Redonda (Round Table) on TV, we'll be getting more detailed information about the extent of damages in the different provinces. They're still preliminary, since there are still so many areas incomunicado. But information is already coming in.

I started this email at 1:30pm. It's now 4pm. At 1:30pm, my area finally got electricity back. But many parts of the city are still without electricity. Calle 23, that main street in Vedado, has lots of tree limbs down and lots and lots of electrical wires. We're still having high gusts of wind. It's too dangerous for linemen to go up the posts, so full repairs will still take a while. Then, at 2:30pm - only one hour to try to get my fridge cold again so that food won't spoil (everyone has this same concerrn) - a torrential storm began. Lightning and very loud thunder. I had to shut down the computer as my dining room window was leaking terribly because of the angle of the rain and the force with which it was falling. My two kitties, Mariposa and Luisito, were terrified!*The electricity has gone out again and I'm finishing this up and sending it out on battery. So once again, I don't know when I'll be sending the next one. It's important that you know, though, that whereas Ike's eye has left, we're still very much under the winds and rains of this hurricane. It's immense!

Oh!!! The energy has just come back on - at least in this area! Not sure for how long nor how stable, but I'm powering up my computer again! Until the next heavy downpour, that is...

For those of you who are circulating these updates to various lists, it would be helpful for me to know if you'd still like me to continue sending them out - which I'm very willing to do -*and, if so, what kinds of things you'd find of most interest and use for me to try to cover.

One thing that Hurricane Ike has been unfortunately shadowing - and it's important that we make sure it too gets some visibility, are the*Paralympic Games in Beijing. Cuba is doing great! To date, four golds, two silvers and four bronzes. And setting world records, such as in the 100-metre women's run and the 400-metre men's run. And when these impressive young men and women are asked to whom they dedicate their medals, they don't hesitate: all respond "To Fidel, to Raul, to my mother, my family, my community, and to the people of Cuba who are bravely battling the hurricane!"

Saludos a todos/as, Susan Hurlich

Sep 12th, 2008, 02:46 PM
Carex, we have had two "rogue waves" here outside of St.John's in the past month. Each were over 20 feet high. They were each a single wave, not a storm surge, and formed in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. The first wave hit a beach were there were people and went up to the parking lot. However, it dragged two adults and two children back into the Atlantic at it receded. Luckily, all were saved. The other wave hit the side of a rock formation which was over 150 feet high, but left a mark that old timers who have lived and fished around this cliff said was never touched.

Sep 12th, 2008, 03:40 PM
Glad to hear you are safe and well CM, please keep us posted as internet access allows.

Sep 12th, 2008, 04:46 PM
I've been watching videos on CNN.com of rescue efforts. Crazy people. Don't they understand that they are risking other people's lives just so they can have an adventure?

We knew a week ago that this storm was coming and generally where it would make landfall, and for the past couple of days it's clear that it would flood Galveston but people have stayed there and now brave souls in helicopters are having to rescue them.

I guess I'm a born chicken. I would have been gone long ago.


Sep 12th, 2008, 07:05 PM
The other wave hit the side of a rock formation which was over 150 feet high, but left a mark that old timers who have lived and fished around this cliff said was never touched.

Marc, I need a mark. :clap: How high did it go up the face of that cliff?? I can't tell.

Crazy people. Don't they understand that they are risking other people's lives just so they can have an adventure?

Margaret, they were warned, so they should have to fend for themselves.

Most stay because of "things" and "stuff". We all know what George Carlin thought of "stuff".

Sorry, but you pay your money, and you take your choice. Don't take anyone else with you.

Sep 12th, 2008, 10:25 PM
John, it went up about a quarter of the way. See the waves at the bottom, and imagine something 20-25 times that height.

Sep 12th, 2008, 11:02 PM
Devastation in Cuba is unreal :eek:

YouTube - HOLGUIN CUBA HURACAN IKE (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ys2enWQnyxE&feature=related)

YouTube - Hurricane Ike POUNDS Cuba! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03JU_ScZJtg)

Sep 14th, 2008, 10:39 AM
Well this time it's our turn with Ike.

Heavy rain tonight from Ike

A woman walks along Queen St. W. as a large storm, part of the same weather system as Hurricane Ike, sweeps into Toronto, Sept. 13, 2008.

Sep 14, 2008 08:26 AM

Toronto and surrounding areas will be drenched today as the remnants of Hurricane Ike combine with a frontal system sitting over southern Ontario to give us up to 80 millimetres of rain by tonight.

By early today, Ike which made landfall in Houston, Texas yesterday, had weakened considerably. It packed gusty winds of 56 km/h as it dumped rain over Arkansas and will continue to move north into Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio throughout the day. The system will arrive in southern Ontario late tonight where Ike is expected to drop 50 millimetres of rain in addition to the 20 millimetres the GTA has received from the first system which has been sitting over southern Ontario since Friday.

Arnold Ashton, a severe weather Meteorologist with Environment Canada, said the amount of rain in such a short time may cause lake and river levels to rise. Areas from Sarnia to lake Simcoe to Petawawa can expect the heaviest rain, he said.

The Environment Canada forecast for Toronto calls for periods of rain ending this morning with a risk of a thunderstorm. For the rest of the day expects clouds with a 30 percent chance of showers, a southwest wind and a high of 26.

Tonight, the rain will be heavy at times ending overnight. The wind will shift from south 30 km/h to northwest 30 gusting to 50.

Monday there is a 30 percent chance of showers in the morning with clearing late in the day and a high of 17

Sep 14th, 2008, 01:28 PM
That's a great deal of rain for a city that has lots of concrete and not that much green earth.

Sep 14th, 2008, 02:32 PM
Not sure what the status is of Toronto flood control - certainly many changes were made after Hazel but that's long ago.
28 and sweltering - off to go hide in the movie theatre.

Sep 14th, 2008, 05:39 PM
A quiet 17C at just past 7PM here in St.John's. Not a breeze in sight, which is fine with me.

Sep 14th, 2008, 05:52 PM
Movie theatre??

Hope he takes an umbrella in with him.

King City, Ontario - Radar Imagery - Environment Canada (http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKR)

Sep 14th, 2008, 06:03 PM
Lots of rain all over, iJH.

Sep 14th, 2008, 06:34 PM
Had a nice meal and fun movie- dodged the heat and just arrived home as the rain started to get heavy. :clap:
House much cooler now - a/c was overwhelmed earlier for the upper floor.

Sep 14th, 2008, 06:38 PM
I give it 30 minutes 'till I get wet. http://i55.photobucket.com/albums/g158/MouseMeat/Smilies/umbrella.gif

Sep 14th, 2008, 07:55 PM
for a while methinks

24 and WET :eek:

Sep 14th, 2008, 08:04 PM
If it clears by 11 in the morning I will be a happy mouse.

Sep 14th, 2008, 08:45 PM
A beautiful full moon on a crystal clear night here in St.John's. Rare for us.

Sep 14th, 2008, 08:46 PM
From a few hours west.....

I live right at the point of that black arrow. We basically got sideswiped by Ike. My brother lives due east of us, in Illinois, so he got the full force, 4 inches of rain in six hours. :eek:


Sep 14th, 2008, 08:47 PM
Chicago was flooded by Ike.

Sep 14th, 2008, 10:48 PM
Lucky us - it is clearing out now and much less humid

Rainfall lighter than predicted from Hurricane Ike

Sep 14, 2008 10:05 PM


The amount of rainfall from the remnants of Hurricane Ike has not been as great as was forecasted earlier Sunday. Once Hurricane Ike degraded into a post-tropical depression, the downpour tapered off.

So far, Hurricane Ike has produced 15-25 mm of rain in Toronto Pearson, 15-25 mm in Hamilton and 30-40 mm in Windsor.

David Philips, a senior climatologist for Environment Canada, thinks we dodged a bullet, referring to the remnants of Hurricane Ike and the frontal system as: "a 1-day wonder."

However, the rain has forced the postponement of construction on the westbound Gardiner between Humber and Carlaw.

Toronto and surrounding areas were initially expected to get up to 80 mm of rain by tonight as remnants of the hurricane combined with a frontal system sitting over southern Ontario.

Arnold Ashton, a severe weather Meteorologist with Environment Canada, said the amount of rain in such a short time may cause lake and river levels to rise. Areas from Sarnia to lake Simcoe to Petawawa can expect the heaviest rain, he said.

The Environment Canada forecast for Toronto calls for periods of rain ending this morning with a risk of a thunderstorm. The rest of the day expects clouds with a 30 per cent chance of showers, a southwest wind and a high of 26.

Tonight, the rain will be heavy at times ending overnight. The wind will shift from south 30 km/h to northwest 30 gusting to 50.

Monday there is a 30 per cent chance of showers in the morning with clearing late in the day and a high of 17

Sep 15th, 2008, 08:58 AM
We got winds, and some rain, but I've seen worse, and this Summer too.

Much cooler and nicer now. :cool:

Sep 15th, 2008, 05:04 PM
Amazing Ike compilation

The short - but eventful - life of Ike - The Big Picture - Boston.com (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/the_short_but_eventful_life_of.html)

Sep 20th, 2008, 05:47 AM
Amazing Ike compilation

The short - but eventful - life of Ike - The Big Picture - Boston.com (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/the_short_but_eventful_life_of.html)

That link was forwarded to me yesterday, and I was going to post it here until I saw your post, MacDoc.
But, YES, what a truly amazing collection of photos on the destruction of Ike. Really thought provoking photos, and I can't help but feel bad for those that suffered huge losses.

That cemetery shot is something else! :eek:

Sep 20th, 2008, 07:57 AM
Amazing Ike compilation

The short - but eventful - life of Ike - The Big Picture - Boston.com (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/the_short_but_eventful_life_of.html)

Wow. That was incredible! Thanks for that sobering link MacDoc.

Sep 20th, 2008, 11:02 AM
That cemetery shot is something else! :eek:

Remember that in Galveston, most coffins are interred near the surface, not buried six feet under.

I'm always amazed at the willingness of people to build houses right along the coast line in hurricane zones. You just know they'll rebuild right there. Anybody who sells them insurance for this is insane.

Sep 20th, 2008, 11:45 AM
Some Ike victims may not be allowed to rebuild (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26780578/)

I read this the other day and thought it was interesting. I can't understand why people keep rebuilding in a place that is hit by one disaster after another.

I also read about that lone house that is still standing amid the destruction. It looks like it's still ok in the pictures, but the water was so high it wrecked the inside so it's a total loss.

I'll take the cold and snow any day.


Sep 20th, 2008, 02:55 PM
For those so inclined, a friend who runs a not-for-profit Cuban travel agency in Vancouver has set up an excellent website with info on the impact of Hurricane Ike on the island, and for those so inclined, how to help.

Hurricane Help for Cuba, Donate to Cuba, Cuban Hurricane Relief (http://tourismforpeace.ca)

Hot and sunny in Havana today... figure I've lost a good 10 kilos in sweat from walking around the city so far ;) My two years in Mexico haven't prepared me for this climate!

The reconstruction effort continues, but man - the damage to Cuba's agricultural infrastructure in particular is massive. There will be lean days ahead. Everyone I know, and others I've just met, have / are sending packages of food, clothing, etc., to their relatives and friends in the countryside.

In the farmers' markets here in Havana (so many more than a few years ago, and abundant with veggies, fruits, and meat) there has been some fear of a spike in prices, but apart from a few isolated cases, the prices are remaining stable.

More to come...


Sep 27th, 2008, 04:57 PM
Where did THIS come from??? :eek:


Enlarge Image
In this handout from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Tropical Storm Kyle is seen in open water southeast of the well-defined non-tropical low pressure system located over central South Carolina. (Getty Images)

East Coasters prepare to get wet ...

Kyle heads towards the Maritimes
Article Comments (34)
The Canadian Press
September 27, 2008 at 3:30 PM EDT
HALIFAX — Southern New Brunswick and southwestern Nova Scotia are expected to get very windy and wet this weekend as Kyle, the 11th named storm of the current hurricane season, bears down on the Maritimes.

Kyle was about 460 kilometres west of Bermuda on Saturday afternoon and ramping up to hurricane strength as it tracked northeasterly toward the Bay of Fundy.

However, it was expected to weaken to tropical storm force again as it crosses over colder northern waters.

“We expect it to make landfall overnight Sunday night through Monday morning in the Saint John, N.B., area,” said Guy Roussel, a forecaster with the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

Mr. Roussel said a few kilometres difference in where the storm actually comes ashore could make a big difference.

“If it's just west of the city they could be getting winds of up to 90 kilometres and even Moncton could feel it.”

The system will move gradually across southeastern New Brunswick and then by Monday evening be over Anticosti Island.

Environment Canada has issued wind warnings to the east of the track for Digby and Yarmouth, N.S., where gusts may run as high as 120 kilometres an hour

Sep 27th, 2008, 09:33 PM
Wow that was a fast spin up......upgraded to hurricane.

Kyle now a hurricane, on direct path to Maritimes
Updated Sat. Sep. 27 2008 8:40 PM ET


CTV.ca News Staff

The U.S. National Hurricane Center has upgraded tropical storm Kyle to hurricane status, as it continues on a collision course with the Maritimes.

A hurricane watch has been issued for the southwestern shore of Nova Scotia. Winds speeds are expected to be about 120 kilometres an hour.

"These same wind speeds in similar events in the past have caused significant tree damage that has resulted in downed power lines and damage to structures due to falling branches or tress," a bulletin on the Canadian Hurricane Centre's website said.

"All preparations to secure loose objects should be completed by Sunday afternoon."

Emergency officials are telling residents in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia to take all necessary precautions in the hours before Kyle's arrival. It's expected to make landfall as soon as Sunday.

The Hurricane Center in the U.S. reported that as of 8 p.m. ET the storm was about 985 kilometres south-southwest of Yarmouth, N.S. and had maximum sustained winds of about 120 kilometres per hour.

The centre of the hurricane is expected to pass over Yarmouth Sunday night and make landfall on the coast of New Brunswick early Monday morning.

Environment Canada is predicting that Kyle will pass directly over Saint John, N.B., and dump up to 100 millimetres of rain on the region. The impact on residential communities in the area could be determined by where the storm makes landfall, weather forecasters said.

"If it's just west of the city they could be getting winds of up to 90 kilometres and even Moncton could feel it," Guy Roussel, a forecaster with the Canadian Hurricane Centre, told The Canadian Press.

After hitting New Brunswick, the system is expected to head to Anticosti Island.

A system moving in advance of Kyle into the Maritimes is already in the region and may drop as much as 40 millimetres of rain, even before the worst of Kyle arrives.

The deputy director for emergency measures in Saint John said residents are still recovering from tropical storm Hannah, which struck earlier this month.

"We still haven't got everything fixed from when we had that problem," said Bill Todd.

The Maritimes were also ravaged in 2003 by Hurricane Juan. It killed at least two people and caused about $100 million worth of damage.

Kyle is expected to arrive five years to the day that Juan hit.

Nov 8th, 2008, 01:06 PM
Just when Cubans thought they might catch a break..... ANOTHER Cat 4 :eek:


Paloma grows to Category 4, heads toward Cuba
Updated Sat. Nov. 8 2008 11:00 AM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

Hurricane Paloma is headed toward Cuba as a dangerous Category 4 storm with sustained winds reaching 215 kilometres per hour.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm intensified early Saturday morning after slamming into the Cayman Islands as a Category 1 storm, dumping heavy rains on the island and downing trees and road signs.

The late-season storm is expected to hit storm-ravaged Cuba late Saturday or early Sunday. As many as 25 centimetres of rain could fall on central and eastern parts of the country.

As of 7 a.m. Eastern time, the storm was about 265 kilometres southwest of Camaguey, Cuba. The centre of the hurricane was southeast of Cayman Brac and moving northeast at 11 kilometres per hour.

Hurricanes Ike and Gustav have already wreaked havoc on Cuba. In late August, the two storms caused an estimated $9.4 billion in damage.

Nearly a third of the country's crops were destroyed, which caused shortages of fresh fruits and vegetables.

Storm chaser George Kourounis said that wind gusts in a Category 4 storm can reach speeds of 240 or 250 kilometres per hour.

"It's not so much the wind but it's what the wind is carrying that does a lot of the damage," Kourounis said Saturday morning in an interview on CTV Newsnet. "In the low-lying areas the storm surge, the hump of water that comes with the storm ashore, that's what does most of the damage and causes most of the deaths."

While the storm will weaken over Cuba's mountain regions, Kourounis said, those living along the shoreline will be bracing for "a very strong hit tonight and into tomorrow."

CTV.ca | Paloma grows to Category 4, heads toward Cuba (http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081108/hurricane_paloma_081108/20081108?hub=TopStories)

Aug 9th, 2009, 12:37 PM
Typhoon Morakot has hit the coastal areas of the Chinese mainland, where around a million people have been moved to safer areas.

The typhoon dumped nearly 2m of rain in parts of Taiwan over the course of 24 hours - and it is not the only storm causing problems for China's coastal regions.

One hopes that's a typo but considering Bombay got a meter without a typhoon in a single day I'm thinking its no typo...and sure enough

BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Taiwan hotel collapses after typhoon (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8191965.stm)

BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Typhoon Morakot hits China coast (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8191939.stm)

Waves as high as 9m have been reported on China's south-east coast

BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Typhoon batters south-east China (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8191951.stm)

a million people evacuated - that number is staggering

From Taiwan


2 metres of rain - in 24 hours - unreal...and only a Cat 2

Aug 9th, 2009, 03:53 PM
Yikes make that within a hair of 3 meters.....:eek: the heaviest ever recorded by over 50%

Wettest tropical cyclones in Taiwan/Taipei
Highest known recorded totals
Precipitation Storm Location
Rank (mm) (in)
1 2900 114.17 Morakot 2009 Wei Liao Mountain

Aug 9th, 2009, 04:04 PM
Those are amazing storms, MacDoc.

Aug 9th, 2009, 04:20 PM
and it's only a Cat 2 - that's 10 feet of rain in 24 hours - it really is hard to imagine....when Bombay drowned with 1 meter.

To put that storm in perspective

The mean annual rainfall in the Taiwan area is 2,510 mm, :eek:

More than a year's worth of rain in one day.

Aug 9th, 2009, 10:50 PM
Some photos here ....I'm really having trouble imagining the impact of 10 feet of rain in a day......


many more here

Typhoon Morakot slams China, Taiwan - Yahoo! News Photos (http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Typhoon-Morakot-slams-China-Taiwan/ss/events/wl/080909typhoonmorakot/im:/090806/photos_wl_pc_afp/c1eca5dfe568321ec8412d24603b1825/#photoViewer=/090807/ids_photos_wl/r3100968403.jpg)

Aug 10th, 2009, 01:37 AM
Let's not overlook the big picture.

Encapsulated at The Straight Dope - Fighting Ignorance Since 1973 (http://www.straightdope.com/)

"The earth has been in a constant if extremely slow froth for much of its 4.6 billion-year existence — Pangaea, thought to have existed 250 million years ago, wasn't the first supercontinent and won't be the last. Conjectured predecessors include Ur (3 billion years ago), Kenorland (2.7 to 2.5 billion), Columbia (1.9 to 1.8), Rodinia (1.1), and Gondwana (540 million years ago). The constant shuffling arises from the fact that the hard outer shell of our planet floats atop a region of flowing molten rock, allowing the continents to skate along at the rate of 1 to 2 inches per year. The chief engine of plate tectonics, as this process is called, is the seafloor. At the midocean ridges, molten rock pushes up from below, causing the floor to expand laterally. Meanwhile, closer to the coasts, the edges of the floor get shoved below the continental plates in a process called subduction. Because of this, very little of the seafloor is more than 200 million years old, while parts of the continents are older than 4 billion years.

Why do we get supercontinents periodically? Some suggest that the continents are drawn together by zones in the earth where the seafloor is pulled down into the lower mantle in a process called superdownwelling, drifting toward the suction like rubber ducks in a draining bathtub till they collide. Why do supercontinents later break apart? One theory is that the oversize landmass traps so much heat beneath it that the crust ultimately cracks open. Another idea is that crust-rending "superplumes" of hot magma roil up from the spots where the superdownwelling occurred. Same result either way: the big continent splits back into smaller ones.

What next? I found maps offering one vision of the future on the Web site of Christopher Scotese, a geologist at the University of Texas at Arlington. The highlights: about 50 million years from now Africa plows into Europe, about 150 million years from now Australia becomes one with Antarctica, and by about 250 million years from now another supercontinent has formed, with North and South America, Eurasia, and Africa in one giant clump. In short, the earth will stay lively, not that it'll matter to us."

Sep 30th, 2009, 11:12 AM
MacDoc - do you happen to know of a service that tracks weather around Taiwan?

I'm sure there is one, but I haven't been able to find it. My son is on his way to Taiwan and I'd like to be able to keep track of what's going on over there.

Thanks, Margaret

Sep 30th, 2009, 11:30 AM
Margaret, here is a link to radar images for Taiwan:

Taiwan Radar (http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/observe/radar/radar2.htm)

Sep 30th, 2009, 05:47 PM
Margaret, here is a link to radar images for Taiwan:

Taiwan Radar (http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/observe/radar/radar2.htm)

Thank you Sinc, that gives me a good idea what's going on over there.


Sep 1st, 2010, 10:10 PM



the train is in motion and there is a very warm Atlantic


evacuations are started already..

Storms Form
September 01, 2010, 4:07 PM EDT

Hurricane Earl, With 120 MPH Winds, May Affect U.S. East Coast

‘Powerful’ Hurricane Earl Heads for North Carolina

By Brian K. Sullivan and Chris Burritt

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Earl churned closer to the U.S. East Coast, threatening an area from North Carolina to Massachusetts with high winds and rain, as two more systems gained strength in the warm Atlantic waters.

North Carolina’s Hyde County declared a state of emergency and ordered mandatory evacuations beginning today for all visitors and residents of Ocracoke Island in the Outer Banks. Visitors were also ordered to leave nearby Hatteras Island, site of the nation’s tallest lighthouse.

While Earl isn’t expected to make landfall in the U.S. on its route north to Canada, its eye could cross the barrier islands if another system doesn’t push it east as expected, Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center, said in a conference call with reporters. Some visitors were unfazed.

“We think we’re going to ride it out,” said Curtis Zimmerman, 65, of Millville, New Jersey, vacationing with relatives at Hatteras Village. “They’re saying the storm should be in and out in a day.”

Earl, with winds of 125 mph (201 kph), is on a track to pass within 50 to 100 miles of the Outer Banks and Massachusetts’s Cape Cod before going ashore in Nova Scotia this weekend. It was 680 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras as of 2 p.m. and moving northwest at 17 mph, the hurricane center said in an advisory.

New Storm

It’s being followed across the Atlantic by Tropical Storm Fiona, with winds of 60 mph, up from 40 mph, and Tropical Depression Nine, which formed today south of Cape Verde off the African coast.

President Barack Obama was briefed about the potential impact of the hurricane by Craig Fugate, Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator. FEMA has placed food, water and other supplies along the East Coast after earlier sending teams to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, which were brushed by Earl.

A weather system is expected to move into the Atlantic in the next day or two and push Earl away from the coast.

“The worst-case scenario is Earl does make landfall in the Outer Banks and even in New England and brings major hurricane conditions to those places,” John Cangialosi, a hurricane specialist at the center in Miami, said today in a telephone interview. “Our forecast is for this to pass just offshore but it wouldn’t take much of a turn for it to hit land.”

Emergency Declared

In North Carolina, where Governor Bev Perdue declared a state of emergency, evacuations began at Ocracoke at 5 a.m., with ferries traveling from Hatteras Village, Cedar Island and Swan Quarter to pick up vacationers. Cars and minivans from New York, Vermont, Illinois, Virginia and other states were loaded with surf boards, bicycles, coolers and beach towels.

About 1.8 million people in Virginia and North Carolina may be affected by hurricane- or tropical storm-force winds, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

“We’re frustrated that we have to leave, but we understand that they have to play it safe,” said Jeff Spivey, 50, of Chesapeake, Virginia, who abided by the evacuation order for Ocracoke.

Earl, now a Category 3 “major” storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity, down from Category 4 earlier, has hurricane-force winds reaching 90 miles from its eye, according to the center. Winds of at least 39 mph extend as far out as 200 miles.

Watches, Warnings

A 50-foot wave peak was recorded as Earl passed over a U.S. weather buoy yesterday, Read said.

A hurricane warning, meaning winds of at least 74 mph are expected in 36 hours, has been posted from Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, to the Virginia state line, according to the hurricane center. A hurricane watch, an indication that such winds are possible within two days, now extends north from North Carolina to Cape Henlopen, Delaware.

“For the next 24 hours Earl is going to hold its strength,” said Allan Huffman, a meteorologist with AirDat LLC in North Carolina, which installs weather-gathering sensors on commercial aircraft.

Earl’s impact will be felt mostly along the coast with rain and wind gusts just inland, said Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist at Weather 2000 Inc. in New York.

‘Buzz Saw’

“The degree of nastiness is a very sharp gradient depending on how far out in the Atlantic you are,” Schlacter said. “This is like a buzz saw that will be very sharp but will be very coastal.”

Rain from Earl will probably start arriving in Boston tomorrow night, with the worst impact the following afternoon, said Bob Thompson, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service office in Taunton, Massachusetts.

The hurricane is expected to pass about 50 to 100 miles southeast of Nantucket with gusts of at least 74 mph for the island and Cape Cod, he said. Boston is forecast to receive heavy rain and may see winds from 39 mph to 73 mph, he said.

“The rain could be heavy enough for some localized urban flooding,” Thompson said. “That could be the biggest impact for Boston.”

When the storm is through with the U.S. East Coast, it is expected to come ashore near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, about 185 miles west of Halifax, on the morning of Sept. 4, according to the website of the Canadian Hurricane Centre. Yarmouth has a population of about 7,200 and is at the heart of Canada’s lobster fishing grounds.

Canada Hit

“It looks like it will take a direct hit on Nova Scotia,” AirDat’s Huffman said. “By that time it will be a Category 1 or extra-tropical storm but it will be enough to bring hurricane- force winds to that area.”

Irving Oil Corp. is “monitoring the situation” at its Saint John refinery in New Brunswick, across the Bay of Fundy from Yarmouth, Sam Robinson, a refinery spokeswoman, said in an e-mail.

Earl may cause insured losses of $100 million, catastrophe forecaster Eqecat Inc. said in a statement on its website yesterday. Losses may approach $500 million if the storm moves 100 miles closer to the mainland, the company said.

The last big storm to hit North Carolina, Hurricane Isabel in 2003, killed at least 16 and caused $3.4 billion in damage on its path up the eastern U.S., according to the National Hurricane Center.

New York may be dodging bullets - or rather warheads over the next couple of weeks.:(

Sep 1st, 2010, 10:29 PM
Been a pretty weak summer for storms this year.

Sep 1st, 2010, 11:02 PM
Now your a hurricane forecaster are you ?/ Just as foolish on that front and ill informed as on a few others....


Sep 1st, 2010, 11:24 PM
Well, it beats posting reams of data about a relatively minor disturbance not expected to generate much more than 10% of hurricane wind speed on land according to that same data's wind indicator map you yourself posted.

Do you enjoy being an alarmist or what?

Sep 2nd, 2010, 12:00 AM
Now your a hurricane forecaster are you ?/ Just as foolish on that front and ill informed as on a few others....


I'm getting more accurate results looking backwards through 2010 than you are, ringing your nutty alarms.

Sep 2nd, 2010, 01:19 AM
Hurricane Earl Nears Atlantic Coast

By SHAILA DEWAN (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/d/shaila_dewan/index.html?inline=nyt-per)

Published: September 2, 2010

Permalink (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/03/us/03hurricane.html#)

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/adx/images/ADS/23/94/ad.239488/nlmg_120x60_08-11.gif (http://www.nytimes.com/adx/bin/adx_click.html?type=goto&opzn&page=global.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day&pos=Frame4A&sn2=147a488/1f5efe16&sn1=cc517f34/3dcb9aa2&camp=foxsearch2010_emailtools_1225560c_nyt5&ad=NLMG_120x60_08.11&goto=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Efoxsearchlight%2Ecom%2Fnev erletmego)

MASONBORO ISLAND, N.C. — Hurricane Earl edged toward the Atlantic coastline Thursday as tourists and residents fled the Outer Banks of North Carolina in the wake of forecasts that the storm might lash the state by the end of the day.
On Masonboro, an undeveloped barrier island near Wilmington reachable only by boat, a small armada bobbed on the protected mainland side Wednesday as a steady parade of short boards and zinc-coated faces streamed over the dunes to the surf. There, the still far-off storm created a bonanza of waves.
The National Hurricane Center said late Wednesday the storm was picking up strength, with winds of about 140 m.p.h. It placed most of the North Carolina coast under a hurricane warning — meaning that hurricane conditions were expected at least somewhere in that stretch.
Earl, expected to hit the region sometime Thursday evening, was already churning the surf. To the north, a tropical storm warning was in effect from Virginia to Sandy Hook, N.J., and a hurricane watch for all of Cape Cod and the islands of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.



Sep 2nd, 2010, 09:45 AM
You gotta believe that the idea of these hurricanes striking land is a big draw for MaccyD... especially in a summer with so few of them.

Sep 2nd, 2010, 01:52 PM
Insurers cower in their bunkers....



Sep 2nd, 2010, 02:07 PM
Weakening to Category 3. Oh well...

Sep 2nd, 2010, 02:17 PM
Been a pretty weak summer for storms this year.

unless you live in Pakistan.

Sep 2nd, 2010, 02:28 PM
unless you live in Pakistan.

NOAA predicted "a potentially record-setting hurricane season is forecast for the
Atlantic basin."

Sep 2nd, 2010, 02:31 PM
NOAA predicted "a potentially record-setting hurricane season is forecast for the
Atlantic basin."

The "potentially" ensures their rep remains intact.

Sep 2nd, 2010, 02:35 PM
The "potentially" ensures their rep remains intact.

It remains intact: inaccurate forecasts with the "potential" for infinite massage of results.

Sep 2nd, 2010, 07:57 PM
Bummer. Another big buildup for nothing. :yawn:

Sep 2nd, 2010, 08:16 PM
Amazing the warmth it is pushing our way. 27C with the humidex this afternoon. Now, it is 19C with not a breath of wind.

Sep 2nd, 2010, 10:55 PM
Ho hum:

Hurricane Earl weakens to Category 2 storm (http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/09/02/hurricane-earl-state-emergency.html?ref=rss)

Sep 3rd, 2010, 07:14 AM
I'm sure I've mentioned it before, but I tend think of this thread and its ilk as disaster weather porn. This latest flurry of activity started out hard-core but it's definitely soft now. So it goes.

Sep 3rd, 2010, 08:17 AM
I'm sure I've mentioned it before, but I tend think of this thread and its ilk as disaster weather porn. This latest flurry of activity started out hard-core but it's definitely soft now. So it goes.

Don't you even like the part where the alto sax plays, and MacDoc encourages the weather event to broach his shores? "Ohhh baby, ohhh baby, you know you want to... I've got YOUR number baby."

Sep 3rd, 2010, 08:26 AM
I'm hearing ya.

On a more serious note, I understand on one level why this sort of thing is of interest - the terrible majesty of Ma Nature unleashing her force, the myriad tragic overtones emanating from the passage of such storms, the sheer breadth and drama of it all.

But all this net-based, rubber-necking, emoticon-spewing near-glee in the buildup induces nausea in me. I can't get into it... it's like destructive weather as a spectator sport and it baffles me.

Sep 3rd, 2010, 08:34 AM
I'm hearing ya.

On a more serious note, I understand on one level why this sort of thing is of interest - the terrible majesty of Ma Nature unleashing her force, the myriad tragic overtones emanating from the passage of such storms, the sheer breadth and drama of it all.

But all this net-based, rubber-necking, emoticon-spewing near-glee in the buildup induces nausea in me. I can't get into it... it's like destructive weather as a spectator sport and it baffles me.

I think that if such a random storm supports a particular narrative--religious punishment for the evils of mankind, or as in MacDoc's case, a form of neo-hippie punishment for running a modern and successful economy--it becomes irresistible to announce the storm with a blare of trumpets as the just desserts for the carbon economy. "You have sown the wind, now reap the whirlwind!!!! Bwaaaaaa haaaa haaa haaaaaaaa....!"

Sep 3rd, 2010, 08:39 AM
Sometimes all those attempts at creating drama fail and the theatre goes dark without an audience.

Sep 3rd, 2010, 08:54 AM
MF, I think there's some truth to that... there is some kind of quasi-religious schadenfreude going on when we're told that the latest disastrous storm is merely the direct result of some sort of failed gubbmint/industrial policy of deliberately despoiling the land and harming the planet irreparably, etc. I can picture some angry prophet railing on a crowded street corner, shaking his fist while the heedless masses whirl by.

Sometimes a storm is just a storm.

Sep 3rd, 2010, 09:21 AM
Sometimes a storm is just a storm.

We can add to that a propensity for building in areas along the sea coast where storms are more likely to happen--something our ancestors would have been loathe to do. Storms aren't destroying our buildings more often--we're building more buildings where they're likely to be destroyed by storms, then rebuilding them in the same place after they're flattened

Sep 3rd, 2010, 09:32 AM
We can add to that a propensity for building in areas along the sea coast where storms are more likely to happen--something our ancestors would have been loathe to do. Storms aren't destroying our buildings more often--we're building more buildings where they're likely to be destroyed by storms, then rebuilding them in the same place after they're flattened

Worth repeating. Out in the mid-west trailer parks tended to be placed along tornado alleys. Nowadays a tornado flattens the mobile homes and they are replaced with stick structures. Same net result as above.

Sep 3rd, 2010, 03:05 PM
Great photo


down to Category 1 now but given it's size - lots and lots of rain.

Sep 3rd, 2010, 07:39 PM
Yeah, as it turns out, another alarmist point of view gone wrong. ;)

Sep 3rd, 2010, 07:41 PM
Yeah, as it turns out, another alarmist point of view gone wrong. ;)

As I said, pretty weak hurricane season, against NOAA predictions.

Sep 4th, 2010, 06:13 AM
As I said, pretty weak hurricane season, against NOAA predictions.From my prospective the Maritime provinces are affected by the second hurricane and its only early September.

We're up to the fifth named storm already. Perhaps because it not affecting the Excited States so the hype is diminished. If interested see some view of Earl, as long as, the power stays on. Nova Scotia webcams.com/south-shore/peggys-cove.html#axzz0yYQHxeu8 (http://www.novascotiawebcams.com/south-shore/peggys-cove.html#axzz0yYQHxeu8)

MannyP Design
Sep 4th, 2010, 11:50 AM
So far heavy rainfall and some wind but nothing serious. Took the kids to the market this morning and they enjoyed playing in the puddles.

Sep 4th, 2010, 11:56 AM
So far heavy rainfall and some wind but nothing serious. Took the kids to the market this morning and they enjoyed playing in the puddles.


Sep 4th, 2010, 01:23 PM
24C with a 28C humidex reading, compliments of Earl. Sadly, this fine sunny warm weather is brought to us here in St.John's at the expense of those in Nova Scotia who are experiencing the dangerous effects of Earl. I wish you all well.

MannyP Design
Sep 4th, 2010, 03:33 PM
Wicked! From what I've heard Halifax is having a rougher go at it, but most I've heard between Moncton St. John and Fredericton it's basically a mild rain storm.

As of now it's just wind.

Sep 4th, 2010, 03:37 PM
We had some pretty impressive rain and lost power for a couple of hours, but it certainly wasn't a disaster.

Of course, it's pretty rare to get even that much from a hurricane up here, so I'd say Earl must've been carrying a fair bit of energy up from the gulf.

Sep 4th, 2010, 06:00 PM
Earl went east and landed near Peggy's Cove. Then it travelled north to Truro and near New Glasgow. The area of Nova Scotia.

The fruit growing region of Nova Scotia the Annapolis Valley, that was predicted to be clobbered was spared.

A huge number of customers upward of (200,000) are without power. Not sure if the weather was the cause or the poor quality of the private sector power company's maintenance and under funding of their infrastructure.

Moncton had a small amount of wind damage but otherwise relatively unscathed.

MannyP Design
Sep 4th, 2010, 07:13 PM
Earl left behind a beautiful suppertime sunset and cool air.

Incidentally, we had a brief outage in the afternoon—lasted about 5-10 seconds and everything came back on.

Sep 4th, 2010, 09:38 PM
Earl has brought us above average temps and a distinct lack of any wind. Currently 20C at just past 11PM.

Sep 15th, 2010, 07:07 PM
Big one - Igor the Terrible...


880 Km wide :yikes:

Hurricane Igor, currently churning across the Atlantic as a major Category 4 storm, has been followed by NASA satellites, and dubbed a "monstrous hurricane," in a NASA statement.
Igor is so large that it is the same distance from one end of the storm to the other as it is from Boston, Mass., to Richmond, Va., some 550 miles (885 kilometers). That's a 10-hour drive.
Astronauts aboard the International Space Station were so impressed by Igor's immensity that they nicknamed it, "Igor the Terrible." (http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/space-station-astronaut-snaps-hurricane-igor-photos-100915.html)
Igor's winds have weakened slightly, hitting a maximum of 145 mph (233 kph), but it remains a major Category 4 hurricane (http://www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/how-strong-can-a-hurricane-get-0330/). While it's projected path is somewhat uncertain, it could make a direct hit on Bermuda in the next three or four days.
But even if it doesn't make a direct hit, Igor is so large that the National Hurricane Center noted that Bermuda can be buffeted by winds of hurricane-force or tropical storm-force on its current track. Hurricane-force winds extend outward from the center of the storm up to 45 miles (72 km), while tropical-storm-force winds extend as far as 225 miles (362 km) from the storm's center.
Igor is accompanied by Hurricane Julia (http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/julia-joins-igor-as-atlantic-hurricane-0526/), also a Category 4 hurricane, in the Atlantic, and Tropical Storm Karl in the Gulf of Mexico, which made landfall at Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula earlier today (Sept. 15). Julia is not expected to be a threat to land, but Karl is expected to move over the Yucatan and back out over the Gulf before hitting the coast of mainland Mexico.

2 cat5 4s at once and another spinning up...