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Old Apr 30th, 2012, 02:33 PM   #1111
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Originally Posted by SINC View Post
Nope, my entire point was that the science is not yet conclusive
At what point would you consider it "conclusive"? 80% confidence? 90%? 95%? 98%? 99? 99.999%? Because real science never gets you 100%, and we're already well beyond 98%.

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and scientists are prone to both error in predictions
You realize that Lovelock is not a climatologist, right? So it's not like his predictions were worth anything to start with. As it turns out the predictions of the real climatologists weren't very good either; they underestimated the rate of global warming by about 30%. Of course, that was based on data from the 1970's and earlier, and more recent work has greatly improved on those predictions.
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Old Apr 30th, 2012, 03:56 PM   #1112
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No doubt they are getting closer. It is just wasn't for those niggling little things that trip them up and they have to correct themselves or back up a bit. Himalayan glaciers for example. Those are the inconclusive aspects that I refer to, and how many more will turn them out to be wrong again? But that is science, you have to be wrong to be right sometimes.
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Old Apr 30th, 2012, 04:46 PM   #1113
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But that is science, you have to be wrong to be right sometimes.
Absolutely. But it's common to hear people arguing that we shouldn't do anything about problems that science and scientists are warning us about because "they're not certain; it's just a theory." Science does not provide certainty, so this line of reasoning would have us ignore science entirely.

Even as a scientist, I don't think science should be the only consideration when making policy decisions, but policy makers cannot be waiting for scientific certainty before they consider what science is available.
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Old Apr 30th, 2012, 07:37 PM   #1114
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We do not fully understand aerodynamics but we build and fly planes.

The risk of AGW is well understood and so far has unfolded consistently faster than projections.

The risk was known for decades.....no one really considered it might unfold as rapidly as it has.

Denying the risk at this point is the height of foolishness. The insurers understand that and charge accordingly.

Trying to find reasonable manner of dealing with the risk has no easy answers beyond the longer the delay the more dealing with it will cost.
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Old Apr 30th, 2012, 08:11 PM   #1115
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Denying the risk at this point is the height of foolishness. The insurers understand that and charge accordingly.
That's really weak. If insurers charge more to people who like to use cell phones while driving, would that prove that cell phones use causes car accidents-or just prove that the insurer has found a new way of raising premiums?
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Old May 2nd, 2012, 10:02 AM   #1116
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The Global Warming Song

Now the True Believers can put their money where their mouth is. Step right up folks and buy that discounted frozen farm.

BTW be sure to read the banners as they fly by.

RayStevens - The Global Warming Song - YouTube
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It's Un-Canadian to oppose a warming trend.
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Old May 8th, 2012, 11:52 AM   #1117
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Couldn't be more deserved.....shows just how stupid climate deniers can get....


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Heartland Institute’s billboards are costing them donors

I wrote a few days ago about the disgusting billboards put up by the far-right Heartland Institute, a climate-change denial group that apparently has no lower bounds to what they’ll do. The billboards, which went up in Chicago, likened climate scientists (and anyone who knows global warming is real) to mass murderers and madmen.

It was repulsive and hateful. After an uproar — and in less than a day — Heartland took down the billboards, but didn’t apologize for them. Instead they claimed it was an "experiment", and declared victory in getting attention. This would be why I use the words repulsive and disgusting.
But the damage was done — this tactic has backfired on Heartland. Even before the billboards went up they lost sponsorship from the Diageo liquor company, which makes such brands as Smirnoff and Guiness. In March, General Motors dropped Heartland as well. Even people who support climate change denialism are worried that their own reputations "[have] been harmed".
And now, after a few bloggers wrote to State farm, the insurance company has announced they too will withdraw funding from Heartland Institute. State Farm specifically cites the billboards as the reason in their announcement.
meanwhile back in oh so green Canada. .the deniers are hard at work screwing up the watered down down targets they set....

Quote:
It may be too late to reach 2020 greenhouse targets, auditor says
The Canadian Press OTTAWA
Published Tuesday, May. 08, 2012 10:23AM EDT

The federal environment auditor says Ottawa still has no solid plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and now it's almost certainly too late for the government to recover in time to reach its 2020 targets.

Environment Commissioner Scott Vaughan tabled a report this morning that finds that federal officials have not done the work required to make sure the few regulations in place will meet even the government's water-down goals.

He says there is no analysis of the costs of the regulations nor has there been much effort to ensure departments and provinces aren't working at cross purposes.

And since regulations are so slow to be developed and implemented, Vaughan says there's a big risk that the framework required to meet Canada's 2020 obligations can't be set up in time.

He points out that Ottawa is paying heavily for the environmental mistakes of the past.

He says the federal government is staring at $7.7 billion clean-up bill for contaminated sites, but has only set aside a fraction of the needed money.
It may be too late to reach 2020 greenhouse targets, auditor says - The Globe and Mail

why am I not in the least surprised and what was that about deserving respect??? I think not.
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Old May 8th, 2012, 12:56 PM   #1118
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Knowing that we can't meet the 2020 targets is heartening. Clean up contaminated sites by all means. A lot of work has already been done in this regard in remote northern sites.
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Old Jun 1st, 2012, 03:34 AM   #1119
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Study shows increase in scientific knowledge among test subjects shows an increase in skepticism about risks of global warming:

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Contrary to SCT predictions, higher degrees of science literacy and numeracy are associated with a small decrease in the perceived seriousness of climate change risks.
The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group
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Old Jun 1st, 2012, 09:04 AM   #1120
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Study shows increase in scientific knowledge among test subjects shows an increase in skepticism about risks of global warming:
From the paper you just cited:
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This result suggests that public divisions over climate change stem not from the public’s incomprehension of science but from a distinctive conflict of interest: between the personal interest individuals have in forming beliefs in line with those held by others with whom they share close ties and the collective one they all share in making use of the best available science to promote common welfare.
(i.e. there is no doubt that the science supports AGW, and policies that reduce GHG emissions.)

This is one of several papers that has come out in the past month that shows that it is political allegiance that determines wether an individual is open to scientific evidence. Republicans and those allied with the politics Right will not consider the evidence of science, even if they are able to understand it, unless it supports their position. This is also true (although apparently to a lesser degree) on the left. However, the distribution of scientific literacy is not homogeneous across the political spectrum; the Left is far better educated than the Right as a population.

{edit to add: if you look beyond the first figure, you'll see that when the respondents are divided by cultural values (egalitarian communitarian vs. hierarchical individualist), the egalitarians fit the prediction of how scientific literacy is expected to relate to the perceived risk of AGW perfectly, but the hierarchical individualists completely ignore the scientific argument. This is just an illustration of the fact that Right wingers are good at ignoring science, even if they're educated enough to understand it.}

Last edited by bryanc; Jun 1st, 2012 at 09:42 AM.
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