From a blog post at THE HOCKEY SCHTICK on a paper about water vapor feedback.
Why is this important?
Quote:
A new paper finds that observations of atmospheric water vapor show a decrease with global warming, leading to a negative feedback on global temperature, not positive as assumed by alarmist IPCC computer model projections. The entire basis of global warming alarmism is that a supposed 1.0-1.2C warming due to a doubling of CO2 levels (which will take 234 years at the current rate) is amplified by positive water vapor feedback to 2-5C. This paper finds water vapor feedback is instead negative, resulting in only a 0.3C warming due to doubled CO2 with water vapor feedback.
Emphasis mine.
Conclusions?
Quote:
Observations of upper tropospheric water vapor over the last 3-4 decades from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and ISCCP data show that upper tropospheric water vapor appears to undergo a small decrease while IR or outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) undergo a small increase. This is opposite to what has been expected from the GCMs. These models have erroneously exaggerated the magnitude of the water vapor feedback. They have also neglected the strong enhancement of albedo which occurs over the rain and cloud elements.
We should disregard what the GCMs have been saying about global warming from CO2 doubling. We should not set mandatory quotas on replacement of fossil fuel energy with renewable energy (wind, solar, etc.) at this time. The honest and objective science to support such serious energy utilization changes is just not there.
OK, I've been beating up on models for a while and the point I want to drive home is that, without real world observation to temper programmer bias, models don't mean squat.
Further to that is this analysis of a temperature dataset from a remote island near Iceland by a reanalysis model which is used to validate data from other models. Unfortunately (and typically) it falls short of real world observation.
Quote:
I’ve written before of the dangers of mistaking the results of the ERA-40 and other “re-analysis” computer models for observations or data. If we just compare models to models and not to data, then it’s “models all the way down,” not resting on real world data anywhere.
Conclusion?
Quote:
My conclusion? The ERA-40 is unsuited for the purpose of validating model results. Compare model results to real data, not to the ERA-40. Comparing models to models is a non-starter.
This isn't the religious thread! Although it does discuss the religion of Warmism...
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By Joseph D'Aleo, IceCap
As we reported, the eco-pressure group, the Union of Concerned Scientists, as part of a continuing misinformation campaign sponsored a teleconference yesterday with a very confused Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, opportunist Mark Serreze of NSIDC and a UCS environmentalist. Their performance was a scientific disappointment to say the least as one scientist wrote me "Masters lost all my respect. Serreze never had it". He didn't mention the UCS. It is the crazy uncle no one talks about.
The Union of Concerned Scientists (you will) recall had sponsored a workshop on Mt. Washington in 2007 in which they promised ski areas that snow would be hard to come by even in northern areas and they might consider another profession. That very winter, northern New England set a record for the greatest seasonal snow and ski areas had the best year in their history. Across the hemisphere that winter was surpassed only by 1977/78, 2009/10. Through January this winter, the Northern Hemisphere had more snow than any of those years and will rank likely in the top 5.
I can only speak for my own back yard which has snow banks piled over my head and no place left to put the 5#!7
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I can only speak for my own back yard which has snow banks piled over my head and no place left to put the 5#!7
eMacMan, I shall come to your assistance to help you shovel ............. once I find the way through the snow. Paix, mon ami.
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"The man who does not read good books has no advantage over the man who can't read these books." Mark Twain
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Dr.G.
14" G4 iBook
15" MacBook Pro (July, 2009)
13" MacBooK Pro with Retina Display
Paix
"The man who does not read good books has no advantage over the man who can't read these books." Mark Twain
eMacMan, I shall come to your assistance to help you shovel ............. once I find the way through the snow. Paix, mon ami.
Your kindness is appreciated but we are down to the let her melt phase. At least until the next big dump, All that's now required is to unblock the drainage channels as needed, so the slush does not get too deep at the bottom of the hill.
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Do NOT Touch this computer!!! Touching this computer WILL cause irreversible brain damage.
It's Un-Canadian to oppose a warming trend.
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Your kindness is appreciated but we are down to the let her melt phase. At least until the next big dump, All that's now required is to unblock the drainage channels as needed, so the slush does not get too deep at the bottom of the hill.
As you wish, mon ami. Still, since I am afraid of heights, I shall send a friend up to your roof to clear off some of the snow, just as he did for me, and I shall widen your path a bit with my shovel. Not as much snow as I thought, but your melting shall come this week I am sure. Bonne chance, mon ami.
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Dr.G.
14" G4 iBook
15" MacBook Pro (July, 2009)
13" MacBooK Pro with Retina Display
Paix
"The man who does not read good books has no advantage over the man who can't read these books." Mark Twain
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