JANE TABER
From Friday's Globe and Mail
October 23, 2008 at 8:52 PM EDT
Stéphane Dion was told by his caucus Thursday that propping up the Harper government is no longer an option.
The Liberal Leader, facing his national caucus for the first time since the election in which he lost 19 seats, apologized to his defeated MPs but then made another pitch for his carbon tax scheme that contributed to their loss.
It was an emotional caucus, insiders say, and there were some tender moments, which even left Mr. Dion teary-eyed as he met with the 75 others who were elected with him last Tuesday and those who were defeated.
“Dion said, ‘Look, I'm sorry … I've spoken to some of you and I'm profoundly sad having to say goodbye,' ” according to an insider.
Liberal Leader Stephane Dion speaks to caucus members following the Liberal caucus meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Thursday Oct. 23, 2008. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
There was no backstabbing, despite rumours that some MPs would challenge Mr. Dion and his decision to remain leader until his successor is chosen at a leadership convention, likely in April or May.
“It was zero confrontation,” one MP said. “If anything, people were gracious. Not one hint, not a whiff of dissension.”
Another MP said he was “frankly, waiting for somebody to try it.”
Instead, the caucus was “pretty classy” with both defeated and sitting MPs paying tribute to Mr. Dion's “courage, integrity and decency.”
Mr. Dion, himself, told reporters there was “not an inch of dissension.”
One insider described the caucus as upbeat.
“People were feisty and determined not to be sitting on their hands,” the source said.
Indeed, the Dion Liberal strategy of abstaining on confidence votes to ensure the Harper government's survival was thrown back at the Liberals during the election campaign. NDP Leader Jack Layton characterized “Stephen and Stéphane” as “best friends” because of the Liberal strategy of supporting the government on budgets and other confidence matters. He accused Mr. Dion of failing “the test of leadership.”
The strategy also proved demoralizing for many of the Liberal MPs, who questioned their role as legislators.
“Yeah, it was very clear from everybody at the microphone that abstaining is no longer an option and so, therefore, we will let the third parties, who hold the balance of power, decide. It's not viable [for the Liberals],” one MP said.
As well as the emotion, as defeated MPs described their triumphs and challenges in political Ottawa, there was humour.
Mr. Dion joked that he had a five-point plan to outline to the caucus. He was referring, of course, to the five-point economic action plan that he had put forward during the French-language debate.
And that's when he went into his pitch for his Green Shift plan that would put a tax on carbon fuels and shift the profits to income tax cuts for Canadians. He argued, said the insider, that his plan “may have been more complicated or more difficult to sell … but notwithstanding that, we still have a climate change problem.
“Whether a new leader understands that or accepts it, they are still going to have to deal with that …,” he said, according to the insider, arguing that the media didn't “get it yet” but once they do, “watch out.”
He also spoke about poverty as another key issue for him. And he indicated he doesn't want to give up the fight on this and climate change, an Ontario MP said.
Harper tho does have to tread cautiously here - basically he has to make a deal with NDP or Bloc.
Interesting - I have felt we have too many MPs so now we're down to a 233 seat minority parliament.
To quote Dr.G
"we shall see"
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Harper tho does have to tread cautiously here - basically he has to make a deal with NDP or Bloc.
They all have to choose their battles carefully at this point - which I think you and I can agree is a good thing. I expect that if the Liberals go back to the traditional role of the official opposition and start opposing things then there will be fewer confidence motions.
That said, Harper is likely in the strongest position of the lot - he did just win a pretty strong mandate, and has a well funded, disciplined party.
The Liberals have a lot of rebuilding to do before they are in any position to fight another election. While I don't expect them to capitulate on everything, they are hardly in a position to throw their weight around. If they are seen to be opposing sound legislation for the sake of ideology I expect they will be spanked hard for it. Even if they take down the government for the right reasons, they are a long way from forming a government.
I expect we'll be seeing the usual grandstanding and showboating from Jack Layton, although I don't see what he would gain from another election. I don't think the NDP has much room to grow in either popular vote or seat count the way things currently stand.
The Bloc is probably in the strongest position of all the opposition parties. Harper will still need to try to build support in Quebec, as a few extra seats in Quebec and maybe a couple in the Maritimes would be the most likely way for him to get a majority. If Harper does give any concessions to Quebec the Bloc can take credit for it and claim it was due to their pressure and standing up for Quebec's interests. The Bloc is in a good position to trade their support of the government for concessions in Quebec.
That said, Harper is likely in the strongest position of the lot - he did just win a pretty strong mandate, and has a well funded, disciplined party.
Mandate, shmandate - but you did call out the truth, and that is discipline. Harper has imposed absolute discipline over his party members, an old school iron fist. The five splinters of the party also know that without the iron fist, discipline will dissipate and the party will fall apart, putting them out of power. So they make their own deals, sticking with the iron fist discipline that keeps them in power - or splintering as oppositioners...
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The Liberals have a lot of rebuilding to do before they are in any position to fight another election.
Not only rebuilding, but a complete overhaul. They are too shallow on talent, and many seats were lost not because of Dion or the Green Shaft or the various lies, but simply because they did not foot candidates that people could vote for. Too many no names, to many insiders, to many wannabes - and not enough talent, notability, and frankly - the Liberals didn't even bother sending out flyers. They were, however, more than happy to go to debates that didn't feature the Tories, and jousted against such important parties as the CHP (who campaign on the premise of bringing back the supremacy of God), the Marijuana Party, the Marxist-Leninists, the Communists, and the occassional cracker jack Independent. And the Liberals did well against that mob, which isn't saying much.
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Even if they take down the government for the right reasons, they are a long way from forming a government.
The people elected a Minority - and that is the will of the people. Just like in the leadup for the last Election, whichever Party pulls the pin will end up paying the price of going against the will of the people. Of course, this was not a factor in thelast Election, since the writ was dropped without any of the prerequisites, but then, our resident alien of Rideau Hall could care less about the law or doing what is right when she can keep her life simple and score all fo the money she is raking in, while remaining pretentious to the nth degree.
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I expect we'll be seeing the usual grandstanding and showboating from Jack Layton
Layton was always a grandstander - heck, he stood out as a notable grandstander in Toronto. And he had lots of competition, considering the notable achievements in grandstanding attained by people like Frances Nunziata et al.
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Bloc is in a good position to trade their support of the government for concessions in Quebec.
Business at usual for Duceppe's Flying Circus of Freaks...
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I think Dion should be given another chance at running for PM with the Green Shift as his main plank--might just work for him this time.
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I just happened to notice a CBC poll of "who should lead the liberals" and here are the results in no particular order:
Gerrard Kennedy
Ken Dryden
John Manley
Frank McKenna
Jean Charest
Marilyn Fry
Justin Trudeau
Brian Tobin
I note with interest that the list (nominated by CBC online participants) does NOT include Michael Ignatieff OR Bob Rae.
(disclaimer: I know next to nothing about either of these guys, or most of the people on the list. But the "narrative" has been that one of these two would replace Dion, and yet they appear to lack popular support at least among CBC regulars. I pass this along merely as a point of interest and not representing any kind of opinion on my part, as I'm totally unqualified to offer one.)
Anti-development environmentalists will no doubt press for a new carbon-tax scheme under another name, but Liberals will want the flogging to stop. The overriding priority will be to win government. As such, their next leader will pay lip service to the concept and go no further. Or at least no further than the governing Conservatives.
As the party's reversal on free trade in the early 1990s showed, Liberals learn from electoral missteps. Mr. Dion's demise has effectively removed the carbon tax from serious political debate. And because Canada's Green party failed, yet again, to win a single seat, the idea will have no champion inside Parliament.
Canadians have spoken and the misguided environmentalist dream of a carbon tax is deader than a doornail.
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I note with interest that the list (nominated by CBC online participants) does NOT include Michael Ignatieff OR Bob Rae.
The short story on each of them:
Rae was a disaster as the NDP Premier of Ontario, in a term of office which alienated not only people who voted for other parties, but the NDP base itself. His policies deeply wounded the economy and he engaged in cost-cutting practices many saw as anti-labour in an effort to balance his grotesque spending habits.
Ignatieff supported the invasion of Iraq, which alienated many Liberals.
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I just happened to notice a CBC poll of "who should lead the liberals" and here are the results in no particular order:
Gerrard Kennedy
Ken Dryden
John Manley
Frank McKenna
Jean Charest
Marilyn Fry
Justin Trudeau
Brian Tobin
There is no one on that list who would inspire many Canadians to suddenly vote Liberal.
It's like a used car lot of politicians who come with a 30 day warranty. Even Trudeau is political baggage.
The Liberals need a new model with a five year warranty and unless they find that leader, they will be relegated to the back benches of power in this country.
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There is no one on that list who would inspire many Canadians to suddenly vote Liberal.
It's like a used car lot of politicians who come with a 30 day warranty. Even Trudeau is political baggage.
The Liberals need a new model with a five year warranty and unless they find that leader, they will be relegated to the back benches of power in this country.
I don't know about anybody else, but there's two on that list that would make me vote Liberal.
Liberal suicide watch
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