Interesting politics happening in my riding, that really show how the split on the left allows the Conservatives to win with little more than a third of the popular vote.
My riding is Saanich-Gulf Islands and the current MP is Conservative Cabinet Minister, the "Honourable" (and heavily hair-gelled) Gary Lunn.
While my part of the riding, the Gulf Islands part, is probably the most small-g green oriented area in Canada as well as being solidly left, we are attached to the most conservative community in the general Vancouver Island area, the Victoria suburb of Saanich. Saanich holds the majority of the population in the riding and if the vote was restricted to Saanich the Cons would always win with a majority of the popular vote. In the Gulf Islands polls we have always voted in the majority for Green or NDP candidates.
Here's the results of the last election:
Gary Lunn CON 37.15% (24416 votes)
Jennifer Burgis NDP 26.54% (17445 votes)
Shelia Orr LIB 26.09% (17144 votes)
Andrew Lewis GRN 9.94% (65.33 votes)
Others < 1%
Looking at the results, it's clear to see how the vote was split on the left.
This time around Gary Lunn will be running for his 4th term, I believe. The Liberals last year made a big splashy announcement that they would be running noted environmentalist Briony Penn. I don't know if she was ever a Green Party member but she is definitely green-oriented as well as having some local name recognition as a host of an environmentally-themed TV show a few years ago.
The NDP decided to go green also and got former Green Party of Canada executive Julian West to hold their banner. I don't know if he's ever had any history as an NDP supporter but has made a lot of noise as a supporter of proportional representation.
As far as the Green Party banner goes, here's where it get really interesting. Not wanting to be seen as splitting the vote, prominent members of the Green Party sent a letter to members in the riding prior to the last nomination meeting asking them to vote for "none of the above". Signed by the Green Party's climate change critic he said, "The Green Party does not have the chance of actually winning that riding, they don't have the infrastructure or the manpower to get out the vote" and "At best, they would double their historic vote if they had a stronger candidate; That's not the case. At this point the strongest environmental candidates are not running for the Green Party."
The candidate they were seeking to avoid re-nominating was Andrew Lewis who is also a past national Green Party deputy leader.
The totally ironic thing here is that Penn, West and Lewis if sitting together in a room discussing the issues would probably agree on just about everything. If things go as they have in the past several elections in this riding the 3 of them will probably get more votes collectively than Lunn. But I have no doubt that on October 14th, Lunn will once again win the election with either the NDP or Libs coming in second or third and the Greens coming in fourth.
As someone who would like to see Lunn have to go back to working in his family's bakery, I am completely at a loss on how to vote. I would prefer that the 3 other candidates just sit down and draw straws to see which 2 of them will drop out.
Of the 3 my least favourite is the Liberal, simply because I have never voted for that party, although I don't mind Dion when compared to right wingers like Martin and Chretien who previously led the party. I would hold my nose and vote Liberal this time if I thought Penn could beat Lunn, but I have no confidence that this would happen.
Although not as stark as in this riding, I suspect that many people who do not want the Cons to win are facing similar frustrating choices in their ridings. To me, it's just a sad commentary on our broken electoral system, that the Cons could possibly win a majority government and all the unchecked power that implies, without ever being close to having the majority of Canadians wanting them to have that power.
Voting strategically is only a crap shoot in most cases, since there are never any local riding polls taken or available. We simply have to take a guess and see what happens on election day.
Down with first past the post. We're big enough and rich enough to run off elections until a winner claims 50% plus one. That or some sort of voting where you could rank your choices, or other proportional representation system.
Funny how people grasp at straws to try and avoid the inevitable. Does this, like most polls to date, mean a Conservative majority is imminent?
The polls do not indicate that a Con majority is imminent SINC, although given our system of electoral mis-representation, it could be a possibility depending on how various vote-split scenarios in many ridings turn out. At present Harper's polling numbers are still within the margin of error from the 2006 election totals. I don't see where his 28 extra seats will come from, but our system makes predictions based on current overall or regional poll numbers only a guessing game.
I'd love to hear from someone who believes in the idea of democracy and majority rule, how a party receiving less than 50% +1 of the vote has the right to garner majority government power.
I have no idea would could happen in this election, by I think vote-splitting will be the story if Harper increases his seat count to majority territory.
Squabbling among those out of power is common. Put them in a room together and they'll be at each other like the aliens in the bar scene from Star Wars, not shaking each other's hands in agreement.
Gary Lunn CON 37.15% (24416 votes)
Jennifer Burgis NDP 26.54% (17445 votes)
Shelia Orr LIB 26.09% (17144 votes)
Andrew Lewis GRN 9.94% (65.33 votes)
Others < 1%
Looking at the results, it's clear to see how the vote was split on the left.
I'm not sure that this illustrates vote splitting on the left - as mentioned in a previous post, the only one of the four major parties that has consistently been on the left is the NDP.
While the Liberals have moved to the left since the last election, they are still a centrist party - and were even more so when the results posted above were obtained.
Elizabeth May has moved the Greens to the left a bit, but in the last election the Jim Harris claimed to be both pro environment *and* pro business - while the party slogan was "Not left or right, but ahead".
Quote:
Originally Posted by GratuitousApplesauce
The totally ironic thing here is that Penn, West and Lewis if sitting together in a room discussing the issues would probably agree on just about everything.
Even if this were true, there are significant policy differences between the parties they represent - see above.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GratuitousApplesauce
Voting strategically is only a crap shoot in most cases, since there are never any local riding polls taken or available. We simply have to take a guess and see what happens on election day.
In most cases I don't think strategic voting makes sense unless the riding is *very* close and you think you could live with the candidate and party you are voting strategically for.
I'll bet a few NDP supporters in Vancouver Kingsway who voted strategically for the Liberals in the hopes of keeping the Tories out were kicking themselves a few days later last time around...
Our MP here in Victoria is NDP member Denise Savoie, and she's a personable, reasonable, effective MP as near as I can tell.
GA, I'm completely with you on the vote-splitting thing. In ridings where the pattern is obvious, the minority parties should coordinate their attack rather than fight amongst themselves.
Having said that, I'm encouraging my "disgusted Republican" friends (of which there are many) to vote for Ron Paul this year.
No it means many of us are tired of First Past the Post. Where getting 37 % means you can act like you are speaking for the majority of Canadians.
Sure. Let's bring in a new system. Then when whoever gets elected, we can all squabble about how they weren't voted in on first ballot choice, or they only won because the other parties split the 2nd and 3rd votes. Yup! A different voting system will make ALL the arguments go away.
All the whining and complaining about majority governments voted in on less than 50% is just that - whining and complaining. Just accept it people. The general voting public is too stupid to really understand politics, and they end up voting for who has the most lawn signs, or who their parents voted for.
I will say this--I have never enjoyed strategic voting and have never felt good about it afterward. If I can't bring myself to vote for one of the majors, I just vote for the smaller party I would most like to encourage.
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