Election Timing

Vandave · Apr 13th, 2005, 11:50 PM

I'm interested in when people think the next election will be held.

Will the Conservatives have the patience to wait until the fall and take the chance that Paul Martin will not be directly implicated (but still negligent) by the Gomery Inquiry? Or do we already know enough from the Gomery Inquiry that there is no need to wait for the final report?

I wonder how this will play out.

One possible situation that I throw out for debate is Paul Martin passing the government to the Conservatives. This would make him look like a statesman because he can claim to be taking the high road. I am assuming that Martin would prefer an election before the final Gomery report since he knows it could reveal more damaging information. Martin could go to the Governor General and recommend that she request the Conservatives to form a government. This is plausible because the Air India bill was passed by the Conservatives and the same sex marriage bill had the support for quite a few Liberals. The Conservatives would then have a very difficult time passing legislation with only 100 seats with limited support from right of centre Liberals. The Bloc and NDP would then do the dirty work for the Liberals and take the Conservative government down. Paul Martin ends up looking like he didn't call for the election and he can spout that the other parties are being opportunistic.

Dr.G. · Apr 14th, 2005, 05:50 AM

Vandave, a very interesting scenario. I am not sure that the Conservatives would "take the bait", unless they felt that they could set a course for this nation that might be passed in the House.

MacDoc · Apr 14th, 2005, 03:43 PM

Martin's not going to call for an election or resign anyway and if the Bloc force the issue and Harper defies the polls and goes along then the Gov General has that option of forcing Harper to try and govern or even overruling the non confidence I beleive if she feels it is not in the best interests of the country.

Harper takes a huge risk, he is not well liked - hence his low personal stats and attempting to pull the trigger early against the clear wishes of the populace is a huge gamble.

He should be doing everything he can to appear to be a real alternative and getting legislation through the house while the inquiry moves forward. Right now we effectively have no government - mostly because he opened his mouth and said " I'm not waiting".

If he had said I respect the wishes of the people to see the end of the inquiry then he may have gained some ground. Instead he's just wound up the Lib grassroots election machine which in Ontario is waaaaay better than the Conservatives.
If he waited he had time to build some "feet on the ground".

But no ol quickdraw popped the champagne too early again. My accountant a died in the wool Con supporter thinks the Libs will win again if Harper forces an election.
He agrees someone like Tory would be a different matter.

The Bloc is very dangerous to Canada right now and this lack of goverance as we head into a slowdown is very disheartening.

MacDoc · Apr 14th, 2005, 03:50 PM

Saw this in the Economist today about the US situation.

We may be drawing and quartering OUR centre these days.

Vandave · Apr 14th, 2005, 04:41 PM

	Quote:			Originally Posted by MacDoc
	Saw this in the Economist today about the US situation. We may be drawing and quartering OUR centre these days.

I like the economist, but I don't agree with the joke. It's true the average american just sits around not paying attention to politics. But I don't think the Republicans and Democrats are really that different from each other and I don't think the average american is politically in the middle of these two parties.

Chealion · Apr 14th, 2005, 04:44 PM

MacDoc - I wouldn't consider that just about the US situation. I'd consider that about any political action, here on ehMac included.

Vandave · Apr 14th, 2005, 05:12 PM

	Quote:			Originally Posted by MacDoc
	If he had said I respect the wishes of the people to see the end of the inquiry then he may have gained some ground. Instead he's just wound up the Lib grassroots election machine which in Ontario is waaaaay better than the Conservatives. If he waited he had time to build some "feet on the ground".

I agree. I think the Conservatives are making a mistake by pushing for an early election. I don't think Canadian's want it, but I don't think there is a big window either. With the Queen coming, we can't have an election in May. After she goes, we already into summer and nobody wants a summer election.

It's best to wait until the Gomery inquiry is done, which is likely in November (I think). Again, that's not a great time for an election given the weather back east. Waiting until spring next year is too long as well.

I think time is on the side of the Conservatives. They have a solid party policy and it's their election to lose now. If Harper shows to Canadian's that he would be a responsible PM that they can trust, the Conservatives will win. Unfortunately, it will still probably only be a minority government. With 308 seats in the house and zero wins from Quebec (75 seats I think), they would have to win 155 out of 233 ridings. If the NDP holds at 36 seats, we are down to 155 out of 197 ridings (80% success rate).

Without Quebec, I don't think any party can get a majority anymore. Looking forward, I think it will take a decade for the Liberals to come back there and it would take a decade for Quebec to elect the Conservatives in a big way. So, I think we are going to have minority governments for quite a while.

MacDoc · Apr 14th, 2005, 05:23 PM

No I'd say in Canada the centre is crying out for good leadership quite loudly and has been for a while- the left edgers are quiet and the right edgers noisy.
The US on the other hand the middle is MIA except perhaps in California and at the state level.

The current adscam turmoil is not a left right issue it's a political tactics issue.

What we have in parliament right now is politics not governance.

Now Vandave's idea would show governance and mature compromise - the way a minority gov SHOULD work. It hasn't. The bulk of Canadians are middle slightly left - there is a hole in the middle right cuz there isn't one other than Martin's fiscal policies.

From the poll it looks like the red Liberal support is soft ( has been for a while). Will see if the neoCon boogie man pulls them back in. People just might not vote strategically this time and a Bob Rae surprise of a minor sort could bubble up.
A 6% national shift from the left side of the Lib support puts a 3 way balance in place.

Now PR would make a difference bit time.

••••

	Quote:
	They have a solid party policy

........hunh???!!!! Just about every commentary I've seen say they have little in the way of policy and they just flip flopped on Kyoto. That's the problem all along they've been wranging on the Libs but have little to offer.

The phrase has been....Libs morally bankrupt........ Cons policy bankrupt.

Now the Greens and NDP do have solid thought through policies but whether Canadians are willing to take that large a social agenda leap is doubtful.....even tho I'd love it

gmark2000 · Apr 14th, 2005, 05:39 PM

	Quote:			Originally Posted by Vandave
	Unfortunately, it will still probably only be a minority government. With 308 seats in the house and zero wins from Quebec (75 seats I think), they would have to win 155 out of 233 ridings. If the NDP holds at 36 seats, we are down to 155 out of 197 ridings (80% success rate). Without Quebec, I don't think any party can get a majority anymore.

I think this is a valuable observation. I wonder if we can resurrect Meech Lake again to bring the BQ back in the fold. That was the best resolution for Canadian unity, better than Charlottetown.

Mugatu · Apr 14th, 2005, 08:46 PM

MacDoc - Of course the politicians are making this a political issue not a governance issue. Mainly because I don't think there is such a thing as governance. Politicians lie. They will do just about anything to stay in power (eg. scrapping the GST). Doesn't matter if they're Libbies, NDP or 'the NeoCon boogie men' (btw, calling all Conservatives 'NeoCon boogie men' makes you to be just as ignorant as the 'NeoCon boogie men'.). In Canada it's politics first (voting as the party votes) and the people second (actual governance). It's a shame that all this AdScam garbage is going to get an election called before we really need one. The Conservatives are moving (slowly) to the center and getting more popular because of it. The Liberals have been in power for too long, been far too arrogant and have been caught with their pants down. It's just a bad time for everyone right now.