A top sticky post for the top of this thread, if it was possible, would be to explain that the BC Liberal Party has nothing to do with the federal Liberal Party of Canada. An entirely understandable misconception for those who don't know BC politics and even for some who live here due to name confusion.

The BC Liberal party many years ago used to be associated with the federal Liberals but this was ended in the 1980s. They ceased to be a force in BC politics decades ago, until the implosion of the right wing Social Credit party in the early 1990s. Some of the conservatives stuck with Social Credit, and some joined the BC Libs who were filling in the vacuum to the right of the NDP. With the election of Gordon Campbell as leader of the party while in Opposition, the party became what has been described as a "centre-right coalition". Campbell himself is a fiscal conservative free-enterpriser as has been the bulk of the party's leaders, with a smattering of what might be termed "Blue Liberals".

With implosion of Campbell's leadership in 2010, Christie Clark became the new leader in 2011, who although she had a few ties to some actual federal Liberals, would be closer politically to a Red Tory. The power structure of the party remained further to the right, but were hoping a kinder, gentler approach under Clark might bring them back into the good graces of the electorate. So far it hasn't worked well and a revitalized BC Conservative party under former Harper government and Reform MP John Cummins is splitting the support on the right. Clark now has been hiring Harper government aides to re-assert her party's right-wing approach to prevent this.

So I made this thread to discuss BC politics, if there were enough people interested.

Things have been interesting for political junkies of late. New polls are showing the BC Liberals now tied with the BC Conservatives in the low 20% realm with the BC NDP in the low 40% range. It's looking like a serious split on the right.

BC has many areas that are as solidly conservative as Alberta, but in the larger urban areas a split on the right would guarantee a big NDP sweep if an election were called today.

One highly placed former BC Liberal cabinet minister and MLA, John Van Dongen, crossed the floor last week to become a BC Conservative. This has been a huge blow for Clark's government.

2 by-elections are coming up later this month, which could mean at least one new BC Con joining Van Dongen, from a very solid conservative riding in the Fraser Valley. The other by-election has a high profile and popular former suburban mayor running for the NDP in Coquitlam-Port Moody. Given the recent polling results, this might be a riding where the BC Liberal and BC Con vote will split and mean a win for the NDP. If these two seats go to the NDP and the BC Cons, this means that Clark's government would be only 4 seats away from losing a confidence vote in the Legislature. With all the current rumbling about BC Libs behind the scenes being wooed by the BC Cons and the sinking polling numbers for Clark, it's not inconceivable that enough MLAs could cross the floor to turn a majority government into a minority.

Chances are that if nothing changes, the next scheduled election in 2013 will see the BC NDP win a healthy majority
with a vote split on the right between the BC Libs and Cons.

What's missing from your history is the propensity of the various political parties in BC to suffer scandals, and eat their young.

So, looking at the various parties:

Currently in power (2000 to present): Liberals - Campbell took over from Gordon Wilson, who actually revitalized the Liberal banner. Wilson couldn't keep the blood flowing to his brain however, and started thinking with his pants brain, which led him to resigning when a female member of the Liberal caucus revealed incriminating love letters from him. (They were both married to other people at the time.) Scandals past include Campbell's impaired driving charge (albeit a personal matter), but the brewing scandal that they've managed to deflect for quite some time is the sale of BC Rail. However, the Liberals couldn't have reached a significant majority without the help of the NDP and the Socred 'history'.

(1990s) NDP - Look up 'scandal' in any dictionary printed in the 1990's and it will say "See NDP". Mike Harcourt, the only NDP leader I would have considered voting for, took the fall for his party and resigned as a result of 'Bingo-gate' (which was your basic kick-back scheme). Glen Clark came in and proceeded to 'shovel money off the back of the truck', and foisted government schemes on the taxpayers which included the 'fast ferry fiasco', and various criminal investigations into Clark's association with his neighbour who ran an illegal gambling establishment. Memories of the abuse by the NDP of the taxpayer's wallets during this time means that many people still have a very bad taste in their mouths regarding the NDP. How long that bad taste lasts depends upon how bad a taste they get from the Liberals, and what the alternatives are.

(1950s to 1990s) Social Credit - ruled BC for many decades (with one break in the 1980's when the Dave Barrett lead NDP won one election). Despite the name they were 'right of centre', and kept moving more right as they remained in power, eventually alienating many 'centrist' supporters who eventually switched allegiance to the new Liberal (BC) party, under Gordon Wilson's, and later, Gordon Campbell's leadership. The downfall of the Socreds was, again, scandal. Although they survived many scandals over the years, Bill Vanderzalm and his "Fantasy Gardens" provided the nail in the coffin for the Socred rule.

(prior to 1950) - Conservatives!

So, as you see, what comes around goes around in BC politics, and many times it's not a case of voting 'for' a party, so much as 'not voting for' another.

What's missing from your history is the propensity of the various political parties in BC to suffer scandals, and eat their young.

So, looking at the various parties:

---

So, as you see, what comes around goes around in BC politics, and many times it's not a case of voting 'for' a party, so much as 'not voting for' another.

I didn't want to make the intro too long, but what you've touched on could be expanded to fill many volumes.

My main purpose with making the first post was to provide some clarification of the BC Liberal's name, because almost every time BC politics gets discussed here, it seems someone jumps in thinking the BC Liberals are the same as the federal Liberals. It seems counter-intuitive, but the BC Liberals are neither large L or small l liberals.

The voters must really hate Christie Clark to be sniffing at the hind end of the NDP.

That's why the revised Conservatives (of BC) are a threat. I can see a scenario where the NDP get in for one term, with the Liberals and Conservatives splitting the vote of the right. If egos take over on the right, it could be NDP by default for a while.

Christie Clark is ... interesting. I think she got elected because she was perceived as likeable, popular and 'not Gordon Campbell'. She'd been out of politics for a while, so wasn't quite as close to the ongoing scandals/reaction to the implementation of the HST as the other candidates.

The Liberals under Campbell got arrogant and underestimated the general populous. They implemented the HST and then were very paternalistic is their explanation of the benefits. The populous saw it for the tax grab it was. I think that had they lowered the overall rate while adding the additional items to the tax base there wouldn't have the revolt they had. Christie Clark is still dealing with the fallout from that. Add to that the fact that she says stupid things and acts like an airhead at times and that sounds the deathknell of the Liberals, for now, anyway.

First, let me express my appreciation to you both for posting such top-notch material. MLeh, your posts in particular have helped me fill in the gaps in my knowledge of BC politics since moving here four years ago.

Though I have now gotten a pretty good look around the lower half of BC generally and much more specifically Vanc and Vic, I still can't see what is driving the recent surge in the BC Conservatives. The candidates they have fielded around here (Victoria) are generally clowns who either don't show up to debates or do poorly. I personally do not have any problem with a Conservative candidate in a riding if they are honestly the best choice of the bunch, they're still better than the Republicans. :)

As you've observed the BC Liberals are on their way out and they know it, and somehow Vanderzalm managed to reinvent himself for a bit there (but then the libel suit happened ...). Interesting guy, but I'm glad he's not driving. :)

I think enough time (and more importantly fresher blood) has managed to pass that the NDP will be given another chance. Hopefully they won't screw it up, but I think a lot of people are just about ready for a full investigation into the BC Rail deal (and BC Hydro and BC Ferries, come to that!), and an NDP victory is the ONLY way that's ever gonna happen. I love that the public here are so engaged (compared to where I used to live) and will occasionally up-end a government policy just to keep them on their toes (ie the HST vote). Clark I liked just fine for about a month but time passed and she's become more obviously "not really that different" from Campbell (who, for all his bad ideas and vilification, struck me as a nice fellow on the occasions we met. Not a great leader, obviously, but a nice guy).

The only thing you left out, MLeh, was that the HST was implemented just DAYS after the election and very shortly (like four months IIRC) after they said publicly they had no plan to implement it but might study it. Apparently you can get away with that kind lie once (BC Rail) but not twice ... I think that triggered some genuine voter anger that the BC Libs will spend a decade or so paying for.

I regret to say that I think the main base of support for the Cons in this province appears to be from the same base as the Republicans get down south ... what I call the "apathetic white suburbs" who don't give a crap about the cities, they just want their suburbs to stay "nice" and don't care about arts, about social justice (doesn't affect them, they think), about urban planning, about foreign policy (or immigrants, for that matter). "Pleasant Valley Sunday" as a reference point.

If the NDP can raise a generation of fresh talent that will knuckle down and stay focused on governing to their principles, they will likely do very well beyond the next election. Otherwise, I think history has shown that voters like a party that projects an image of clear direction (even if they don't strictly agree with the direction), and that often leads people (particularly the suburbs) to vote Conservative. Again, in some ridings that might be the wisest choice, but I inherently don't trust politicians who seem eager to tow the party line regardless of local circumstances (in any party) and the Cons seem to be the worst about that of any of the other parties.

OTOH, what the heck do I know? Dang Merkin smarty-pants coming in here and weighing in on BC politics ... :)

Although Clark doesn't seem to be a particularly skilled politician, I think the blame for the BC Lib implosion has to rest with Gordon Campbell.

As MLeh said, if Campbell had dropped the HST to 10% when announcing the change, he would still be Premier today and probably looking OK for the next election. It was a blunder of massive proportions based on sheer arrogance.

At the time, I only remember a few small voices suggesting that they drop the proposed HST to 10, from the combined PST + GST of 12%. And I only once heard a government minister address this idea and he "claimed" it was impossible.

The thing is, the HST was not a tax grab, it was actually revenue neutral overall as claimed. The problem was that it was a $2 billion tax break to business, with that money coming directly out of the pockets of consumers, with a massive share of that break going to the largest corporations, many of whom got huge savings by eliminating PST and collected little or no GST. Under the HST these large resource companies can claim huge input tax credits and receive checks back from the government on taxes paid.

I was still in favour of the HST because it was a sensible approach and even though it was a break for large corps, it was also a big help to small businesses. But I think that if Campbell wanted to give a tax break to his big biz buddies, he should have given an equivalent break to everyone else by dropping the total HST to 10.

But Campbell thought he could skate on that and was shocked to find a lot of his traditional base suddenly turn against him on the issue. A stupid blunder that seems poised to now destroy the BC Liberal Party.

Christie Clark tried to stem the damage before the referendum on whether or not to scrap the HST by announcing if we voted for the HST it would go to 10, but she blew that as well. She should have just changed it to 10 immediately and told people the choice was between 10% HST or back to 12% PST + GST.

I almost feel sorry for them, but not really, it's their own arrogance and stupidity that brought this on.

So, Christy has announced funding for a new Mental Health Facility (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/04/10/bc-psych-ward.html)

Actual healthcare or just building up to the next election?

So, Christy has announced funding for a new Mental Health Facility (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/04/10/bc-psych-ward.html)

Actual healthcare or just building up to the next election?

No doubt every decision a government that is in trouble makes will be made with an eye to how it will affect their political fortunes, but I think many people see that there is a great need for improved mental health facilities. Fortunately a private philanthropist kicked in a big chunk of the cost.

It costs our society money to not address the lack of mental health care as well, with the more extreme cases wandering the streets and getting into dangerous situations, not to mention the lost potential from other less damaged people who might be otherwise functional citizens if receiving proper care.

Segal donated the money back in 2010. Wheels of government move so slowly ...

The voters must really hate Christie Clark to be sniffing at the hind end of the NDP.

Nice to see that your sniffing of the BC Lieberals hind end hasn't shifted an inch. ;)

By-elections today.

Nice to see that your sniffing of the BC Lieberals hind end hasn't shifted an inch. ;)

The BC Liberals seemed OK until the HST tax grab and the greenhouse gas tax. But I saw the damage the NDP wrought on the BC economy--that would really be cutting off your nose to spite your face.

The NDP won both ridings.

There's a shocker.

CBC's take (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/04/19/bc-byelections-moody-coquitlam-chilliwack-hope.html)

CTV's take (http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120419/bc_byelection_results_120419/20120420?hub=BritishColumbiaHome)

Subtle differences in the reporting, but even more interesting are the comments.

Oh, for the good old days. Clark is a dud, but punishing her like this will come at a great price to the economy.

The BC Liberals seemed OK until the HST tax grab and the greenhouse gas tax. But I saw the damage the NDP wrought on the BC economy--that would really be cutting off your nose to spite your face.

What damage? You're just repeating right-wing talk radio nonsense mythology. To blame the NDP for the collapse of world-wide commodity prices that tanked the BC economy in the late '90s would be the same as blaming the BC Liberals for the recent global economic downturn that occurred during their tenure or blaming the conservative BC Social Credit government of the '80s for a similar collapse of commodity prices.

http://i.imgur.com/vJDr9.jpg

Here's a little tid-bit about how the sainted economic geniuses the BC Libs run the economy. When Gordon Campbell was being shown the door in late 2010 he announced a 15 percent tax cut in hopes of it turning around his government's dismal poll numbers. It didn't work at all to help his popularity so the very next month the same BC Liberal government cancelled the cut. Such economic integrity!

It's all politics, the only reason the right-wing parties get to wear this mantle of so-called economic wisdom is because those in the business world tell us this is so. And why do they tell us it is so? Because they know that even though government has little or no affect on the over all economy, if their right wing pals get in, they'll cut them some grand deals on taxes and favourable regulations. Like, hmmmm, let's see -- a favourable HST and then shift the burden of the extra taxes onto consumers.

The NDP won both ridings.

There's a shocker.

CBC's take (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/04/19/bc-byelections-moody-coquitlam-chilliwack-hope.html)

CTV's take (http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120419/bc_byelection_results_120419/20120420?hub=BritishColumbiaHome)

Subtle differences in the reporting, but even more interesting are the comments.

I'm not shocked that Joe Trasolini won Port Moody-Coquitlam riding. He was the front runner and even though the riding is a marginally centre-right riding, Trasolini was a highly popular former Port Moody mayor and pretty much a centrist himself. If (when?) the NDP wins the next election I would expect Trasolini will be a high profile cabinet minister.

I'm a little shocked that the BC Conservative candidate didn't do better in Chiliwack. I think the message of vote splitting kept many in the riding holding their noses and still voting BC Lib. But the vote was split anyway and the NDP won with a vote share in the low 40%. But if the NDP can get something in the low 40s in one of the most conservative areas in BC, I suspect that even if the BC Conservative party wasn't on the scene the NDP could win the next election all on their own. The BC Libs are pretty much a spent force it seems.

What damage? You're just repeating right-wing talk radio nonsense mythology. To blame the NDP for the collapse of world-wide commodity prices that tanked the BC economy in the late '90s would be the same as blaming the BC Liberals for the recent global economic downturn that occurred during their tenure or blaming the conservative BC Social Credit government of the '80s for a similar collapse of commodity prices.

The NDP was responsible for a passive response to any external crises. Tough times for everyone in Canada, but managed worst in BC. Under the NDP, the province experienced the worst GDP growth in the country and the largest tax hikes in the province's history. Its bizarre attacks on business stifled investment (Alcan's Kitimat smelter for example) and convinced businesses that BC was not a safe place for investment capital.

Apparently Christy Clark is completely out of touch (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/04/20/bc-byelections-aftermath.html) with the mood of voters.

The NDP was responsible for a passive response to any external crises. Tough times for everyone in Canada, but managed worst in BC. Under the NDP, the province experienced the worst GDP growth in the country and the largest tax hikes in the province's history. Its bizarre attacks on business stifled investment (Alcan's Kitimat smelter for example) and convinced businesses that BC was not a safe place for investment capital.

As the chart above shows, the economy did what it was going to do, regardless of the provincial government of the time. Macroeconomic factors outside of the control of provinces determined what the economy did. Average GDP growth during the NDP years was 3%, during the BC Lib years 2%.

I understand it's important for the right to promote the fantasy that right of centre governments are always fiscally responsible and that centre or centre-left governments are always fiscally irresponsible, even though history does not indicate that. The fact that some on the right would support prime examples of fiscal irresponsibility such as the current Harper government or the last Bush administration over others shows that their arguments about fiscal responsibility are just convenient rhetoric to support their ideological preferences.

Apparently Christy Clark is completely out of touch (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/04/20/bc-byelections-aftermath.html) with the mood of voters.

I think she probably knows what the mood of voters is, but I think there's little she can do about it. She has to appear to be the leader. It looks like all this talk of a revitalized right-wing coalition is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The BC Cons have no interest in it.

I think the BC Cons are fully aware that they have little hope of unseating the BC Libs and winning the next election. I think they know that they will split the vote and cause the election of the NDP and possibly reduce the BC Libs to a few seats. From there they hope that they could become the Opposition and then win the election after that.

For the BC Libs, they can't just get rid of Clark and bring in a new leader at this late stage. They are going to have to stick with Clark. Their brand is so severely tarnished due to Gordon Campbell's past stupidity that even many of their once fervent supporters believe they have to lose.

I'm sure Christy is probably wishing right now she'd stuck to her talk-radio show, where at least she would be having fun with all of this rather than being the butt of the joke.

I understand it's important for the right to promote the fantasy that right of centre governments are always fiscally responsible and that centre or centre-left governments are always fiscally irresponsible, even though history does not indicate that. The fact that some on the right would support prime examples of fiscal irresponsibility such as the current Harper government or the last Bush administration over others shows that their arguments about fiscal responsibility are just convenient rhetoric to support their ideological preferences.

Not at all. But the BC NDP was a disaster,

Not at all. But the BC NDP was a disaster,

Would you mind backing your cryptic one-liner up with some analysis? (i do not ask for facts,as you have none.) And please something that will hold up for someone like me who has lived in BC since around 1955, and I do not mean yesterday at 19:55.

Would you mind backing your cryptic one-liner up with some analysis? (i do not ask for facts,as you have none.) And please something that will hold up for someone like me who has lived in BC since around 1955, and I do not mean yesterday at 19:55.

Sure. But I need to clarify two things first:

1. What sources do you consider acceptable proof?
2. I do not consider an increase in union wages a hallmark of economic performance.

Sure. But I need to clarify two things first:

1. What sources do you consider acceptable proof?
2. I do not consider an increase in union wages a hallmark of economic performance.

1. Sources? Well let's see what you have to offer. I would like to learn about some objective sources beyond the family and friend anecdotes I can muster for you. I subscribe to The Economist but no Canadian rags.

2. What's wrong with an increase in union wages? I am all in favour of unions. (Unrelated to the issues, I live in a corner of BC with a labour shortage, and consequently we pay well above union wage here.)

But my main point is, how about some details and actual info, not cryptic comments, if you know so much. Pls share yr wisdom.

2. What's wrong with an increase in union wages? I am all in favour of unions. (Unrelated to the issues, I live in a corner of BC with a labour shortage, and consequently we pay well above union wage here.)

Because the NDP can achieve that through union-favourable legislation or simply through lax negotiation with public sector unions even if the economy is tanking--it isn't an indicator of economic health.