: Xchange rate
Nov 22nd, 2004, 07:43 AM
1 USD=1.18 CDN (approx)
I leave for Chitown tomorrow for the 2nd biggest retail period: ThanksGiving! I can't wait!! I should buy my U$D now... but I'm sure we might squeeze a few more points. Going to the bank today nonetheless.
Anyone else stoked about this??
Nov 22nd, 2004, 07:54 AM
I'm not but the girlfriend is ... she's planning a shopping trip to the US to drop her Christmas coinage. I'm hoping the rate stays till at least March so our annual pilgrimage to the Sunshine State doesn't whack me across the forehead as hard as it has over thye past few years.
Nov 22nd, 2004, 08:00 AM
Many economists expect the US$ to drop further. Some say between 25-40% more.
Great for shoppers and holidays. Not so good in the short term for exporters....
Nov 22nd, 2004, 08:11 AM
for exporters.... Or those of us who own U.S. stocks... :(
Nov 22nd, 2004, 09:53 AM
Or those of us who own U.S. stocks... I was just speaking to my friend about that, as we have both been looking into some US stocks. Might wait til it drops a touch more, esp since I too also heard that it's expected to drop a touch more. Man... this might be the time to make that US investment happen. I'll be keepign my eyes peeled.
Nov 22nd, 2004, 10:37 AM
The weakness in the US dollar has cost me hundreds of $ so far this year (as it would to anyone who has US cash/stock/bonds/export customers). If you only buy US currency as you need it it's OK.
It's difficult to say where the US dollar is going, but the general prognosis is it should fall further. However, the current devaluation has been expected for at least 5 years, and was unusually long in coming.
The Canadian dollar, based on economic factors, should be worth about 86 cents US or about $C 1.16 per US$1, which is about where it is now, more or less.
However, the Asian Governments have been propping up the US dollar (2004 dollar buying by Central Banks in Asia is at record levels) and this tends to prevent "natural" movement in the currency, hence the uncertainty.
Also, there was some market increase in the Canadian Dollar due to high oil prices (Americans must buy Canadian dollars to buy Canadian Oil/Natural Gas/Electricity and we are their largest supplier of all three) which seem to have mitigated somewhat now that Oil is below $50 bbl.
Anyone unsure of when to buy US$ should also pay close attention to where and how they buy them; the difference in fees is probably greater than the amount you could save by timing your purchase/sales. Try to get the wholesale rate (credit card/US checks/Traveler's checks/Currency Exchanges) rather than the retail rate at your Bank.
[ November 22, 2004, 10:51 AM: Message edited by: gordguide ]
Nov 22nd, 2004, 10:50 AM
AAPL's rampup today should help me a bit but otherwise it's still a losing proposition. Wow! It's up by US$6!!!
If it goes up to $100 like Piper Jaffray supposes, I may have enough for a downpayment somewhere...or should I wait until the US$ strengthens? hrmmm...
Nov 22nd, 2004, 10:53 AM
Apple will, in all likelihood, do a stock split if it rises above $80 or so. They always have in the past; they prefer a stock price around or under $50.
The chance the US dollar will strengthen is, in my opinion, slim to none. The question is more one of how far and how fast will it fall, and where will it stabilize. (A related question is why it took 5 years to begin to fall, since it's been weak, technically, for a long time).
It is getting close to where it should be, but the US Budget deficit and Current Account deficit are at unsustainable levels, which doesn't bode well for those hoping to see it rise.
US Interest rates are also likely to rise (higher interest attracts foreign buyers to the US market; ie they buy US$ and increase demand and therefore the value of the $ rises). The question remains exactly how much foreign demand for the dollar can offset it's poor fundamentals due to the deficits. Essentially, the deficits are funded by foreigners, and the US needs to keep them buying or a recession may result.
[ November 22, 2004, 11:04 AM: Message edited by: gordguide ]
Nov 22nd, 2004, 10:58 AM
I don't think that a stock split is a sure thing given that they've only done it once in the last decade. I doubt that we will see such rarified heights as US$80 but who knows? I don't think that the company is worth more than US$30 anyways. LOL!
Nov 22nd, 2004, 11:26 AM
1994-2004: some of Apple's worst years ever, with bankruptcy and takeover rumours dominating the first few years.
Last split: 21June00; price was around $60 and split to about $30x2. Previous split was 1987 from around $30 to around $15x2. Ignoring splits means an Apple share purchased in 1986 is worth $245 today.
Apple has always split stock when it felt the price was too high to attract "ordinary" investors, and Apple has never allowed the stock to rise to $75 without a split.
Nov 22nd, 2004, 02:19 PM
The record seems to say that you can't bet on what Apple will do, either at $30 or at $60. :D
Nov 22nd, 2004, 04:17 PM
Anyone else stoked about this??
My husband makes US dollars (crosses the border everyday to work) and we're taking a HUGE hit. When he started 2 years ago the US dollar was at 1.55...now at 1.18 we're losing a thousand dollars a month.
It makes me feel sick just thinking about it :( :( :( :(
Nov 22nd, 2004, 06:03 PM
I got out of all US investments earlier this year. Euro side looking better. PRC has so much leverage on the US$ now that even if the current administration tried to slow down the outsourcing they' d be in a tough situation.
Been looking at the auto side in the US but all the plays seem pretty muddy. Armaments seem to have upside but I don't put money there for personal reasons.
Anyone see any mid-term upside?