The problem now is, as with the age old wisdom in investing, when everybody is buying/talking about a company.. It soon will crash. It has no solid fundamental grounds just pure human psychology..
Location: Aylmer (Gatineau) across the river from Ottawa
Posts: 16,194
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacUnited
The problem now is, as with the age old wisdom in investing, when everybody is buying/talking about a company.. It soon will crash. It has no solid fundamental grounds just pure human psychology..
Not really true at all, for a tech company thier fundamentals are very solid indeed:
P/E Ratio (TTM) 17.1x
EPS (TTM) 35.54
Beta 1.26
a P/E of 17 for a hot and continually growing company like Apple is actually quite low and they have substantial earnings per share and their Beta is again low for a hot growing tech company...
I wouldn't be taking a contrarian position in them right now and shorting them as I think the stock still has plenty of legs. However all good things must eventually come to an end though and that is the time to start shorting them but that time isn't now IMO. And people have been talking about Apple stock for about 4 years now and it hasn't crashed at all and it isn't just buying/talk that precipitates/is a portent for a crash if all that talk is about how their revenues just keep climbing and blowing away analysts' expectations.
It is bad news and missing earnings expectations that will drive down a stock, that is what I am waiting for... I missed Apple on the way up but I sure want to get in on their way down when it eventually happens.
Last edited by screature; Mar 23rd, 2012 at 01:09 PM.
That's why I included that the theory has no solid fundamental grounds.. It just keeps happening.
But you can see the writings on the wall, I just feels that the expectation and becoming extremely high, and not sure if apple or any company for that matter can keep exceeding a higher and higher expectations.
I remember having the same argument with a collegue about RIM, 3 years ago.. Rim had no completion then and the iPhone was simply considered a toy then.
Anyway, I seriously don't wish that to happen to apple since everything tech I own is apple! lol
But it will be very interesting to watch what unfolds
Man I really want to get in the game. At $600 right now I'm a little scared to dump a big sum on them right now. Tim cook is a smart guy I think. After the last key note saying was got some good stuff coming, just the way he said that was like watch out competition.
Who here has bought?
I think I might do it.
Location: Aylmer (Gatineau) across the river from Ottawa
Posts: 16,194
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mamma
Man I really want to get in the game. At $600 right now I'm a little scared to dump a big sum on them right now. Tim cook is a smart guy I think. After the last key note saying was got some good stuff coming, just the way he said that was like watch out competition.
Who here has bought?
I think I might do it.
Way to rich for my blood right now. I am waiting for them to make a stumble at some point in the future which, all companies inevitably do, and will cash in by shorting them on the way down.
Location: Aylmer (Gatineau) across the river from Ottawa
Posts: 16,194
Quote:
Originally Posted by fjnmusic
One good thing is that you don't have to buy so many shares to make a decent profit or long term investment.
This is backward thinking to me... The more expensive the stock the less shares you get (for a given $ amount) and so overall the share price must increase that much more before you see any substantial return if the stock is highly priced....
If I had held onto my 100 shares of Apple when I bought them at $30, (before splits) my investment would have increased 20x now... as the stock price rises, the more initial investment is required to get the same kind of potential return.
If one has deep pockets, sure keep investing in Apple but eventually there reaches a point of diminishing returns and if at any point Apple fails to meet earnings expectations it is a very good shorting opportunity...
So I would rather to continue to save for when that inevitable situation arises and (potentially) gain many more times the value of my money for the same initial total $ investment.
No stock keeps going up for ever on a year over year basis and Apple has been on an exceptional run now for over 5 years... Personally I think their time is running out and by that I mean within the next 24 months -36 months... They could of course prove me wrong, but without Jobs at the helm I think their run is going to come to an end within a time frame that I would be better off to wait (relative to their current share price) by not buying it now and waiting for the the tide to turn.
This is backward thinking to me... The more expensive the stock the less shares you get (for a given $ amount) and so overall the share price must increase that much more before you see any substantial return if the stock is highly priced....
If I had held onto my 100 shares of Apple when I bought them at $30, (before splits) my investment would have increased 20x now... as the stock price rises, the more initial investment is required to get the same kind of potential return.
If one has deep pockets, sure keep investing in Apple but eventually there reaches a point of diminishing returns and if at any point Apple fails to meet earnings expectations it is a very good shorting opportunity...
So I would rather to continue to save for when that inevitable situation arises and (potentially) gain many more times the value of my money for the same initial total $ investment.
No stock keeps going up for ever on a year over year basis and Apple has been on an exceptional run now for over 5 years... Personally I think their time is running out and by that I mean within the next 24 months -36 months... They could of course prove me wrong, but without Jobs at the helm I think their run is going to come to an end within a time frame that I would be better off to wait (relative to their current share price) by not buying it now and waiting for the the tide to turn.
Maybe. But the way I see it, all you have to do is make more interest on your investment than what the banks are offering and you've already won. I suppose that means shorting the stock, but there are definitely riskier ways of making a profit. The products sell consistently well and there' smote where those came from. With only 5-10% of the desktop market, there's lots of room for growth there as well. Apple's worth has been pretty consistently growing compared to a number of other companies. Taking a look at the five year market share value chart below, investing in Apple looks like a no-brainer, even at (relatively) expensive single-share prices.
__________________
"I am disappointed and deeply concerned that there is no objective evidence to support my position. So far."
- Spock 
Linear Mode
