It BLOWS ME AWAY how these guys are getting phased by the iPod phenomenon! You'd think that such "esteemed analysts" would be able to maintain an objective "big picture" perspective, but they don't.
Despite the current success of the iPod, I say "so what?" to it. It's success IS temporary. Demand for such a device is limited in this world to certain types of users -- personal computers, on the other hand, are needed by just about everybody and every "thing" (businesses, schools, etc.). As a result, demand will eventually level off for the iPod as it becomes a niche commodity (like all portable MP3 players), but the computer market, while fluctuating (and this sector is on the upswing at this point), is forever.
With its computers and operating system, Apple has a special thing amidst a sea of commodity PCs -- and this specialized entity of theirs isn't as easily interchangeable as going from using an iPod to using some other MP3 player (although AAC format will add a challenge to this, depending upon the extent an individual has used this format/bought iTMS content). Now, we all know that this speciality is a double-edged sword, because the notion of migrating from Windows to Mac OS (this is what the "switch" is all about -- NOT the hardware) isn't an easy one. The more somebody researches the Mac platform, however, the more compelling the notion becomes. The contrasting result IMHO is that Windows-to-Mac switchers are more staunch and committed long-term to the platform than any iPod user will ever be. "Once you go Mac, you never go back" is the general feeling, whereas "the Fickle Factor" is a lot higher in consumer products.
In light of this, I feel that Apple's biggest challenge is to battle the (OBVIOUS) misperceptions of the platform; something the "Switch" campaign FAILED to really do. Despite this, I don't think I have ever seen as many "switchers" to the Mac platform as there has been since Mac OS X came out! There are a lot of dissatisfied Windows users who feel trapped by the ubiquitous presence of Windows and Microsoft. The only option they might know of would be Linux, which is a demanding environment for the end-user. Meanwhile, Mac OS X would give them pretty well everything they're looking for in a better way.
As for Apple themselves, I don't see them moving away from computers at all. Yes, there are BIG PROBLEMS at IBM and the G5 and I'm worried about it. But, unfortunately this is just another day in Macland with lame processor suppliers. Despite this -- and UNFAZED by the iPod phenomenon, Apple is still unleashing killer professional video creation software, amassing a complete suite of superior technologies: FCP, Shake, Motion, Soundtrack, xServe (Pixar's Renderman for OS X) and now
talk of distributed cluster rendering, Logic Audio... you can't run all this stuff on an iPod, can you?
So, those stupid analysts who actually expect and hope for Apple to falter (as they have for many MANY years) can keep on dishing out the FUD. Apple has other plans.
EDIT: Don't get me wrong, however; I think that it is smart of Apple to diversify and get that Apple logo into more people's hands that don't use Macs. It's smart to give them a sampling of Apple's engineering philosophy via the smooth and sophisticated iTMS->iTunes->iPod "musical ecosystem" (as Jobs puts it). It is a sly trojan horse that doesn't give away the farm (like porting OS X to x86 would do -- which would KILL Apple). Apple should definitely do a phone, next, and NO don't do a PDA. Smart phones are where its at, and EVERYBODY needs one -- more than a PDA... and more than an iPod. But that should be the extent of Apple's foray into consumer electronics: well positioned and focused products, benefitting from Apple's awesome esthetic and technological design.
[ May 10, 2004, 11:35 AM: Message edited by: Macaholic ]