I have been reading some Apple Hot News (http://www.apple.com/hotnews/ ) , some links to other sites from there - particularly to InfoWorld, and a few other very favourable items about Apple and its hot sellers, customer satisfaction, switchers to Mac, etc. Who dares to predict what Apple's stock will do this new year, and WHY?
(Please try to put your Apple prejudice aside if you have it. Not easy, eh!)
I don't follow the markets that closely, but from what I've been reading, a slump in computer sales is expected to carry through the year. Software growth is the only bright spot in the category. Slow compurter sales means tough competition and low margins. So, unless the markets have already dicounted the stocks in anticipation and something unexpectetly good happens, I don't see this as being a good place to invest. Anybody else see it differently??
I have a crapload of Apple Stocks and I have lost a crapload of money on them! I originally bought my stocks at 94.00 U.S, and then they split, and were worth just a little over 40 dollars U.S, That was okay because I got double the share. Then they dropped even more after going public with losing money in the 3th quarter, Perfect! I picked up a crapload more of them then at around 25.00 after they dropped over night, Then they went to about 13.50 within the next couple of days, so I purchased more! Now I have lots of Apple Stock that I bought at various different prices throughout the ages.
I was even able to get the original 2 stocks that I bought from my broker after pulling some massive amount of hair and annoying them so that I could frame it and put it on my wall! Looks nice next to my think different posters [img]smile.gif[/img]
I also have a TON of SGI shares, but I won't even go into that horrible story of crash and burn
If you haven't guessed it yet, I am not a stock broker, just an idiot!
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Ok, so the rest of the computer industry is in deep do-do. What I see is Apple delivering some hot new technology with a fairly stagnant competition. And the Apple stock is really beaten up now, a result of seemingly everyone saying the next year is not a bright one for technology sales and stocks. But what I am reading on the net is quite favorable, coming from PC publications who have ignored or had nothing good to say about Apple for ages.
Things are achanging, methinks, and that is why I asked my question. Is it time to be a contrarian?
Good news, great technology or not, Apple would have to get so much more press than they do now, with a doubling of marketing. We know that they have hot product, but the GENERAL consensus is still that they don't work well as biz cpus. You should see the puzzled looks I still get from people. [img]tongue.gif[/img] Like I can't read this or that. they can't open attachments etc... [img]tongue.gif[/img] Just amazing. Anyhow, tech is down on a whole so not sure how wise a stock purchase would be at this point, unless Johnny, you went to the Michael Cowpland school of business (w/ emphasis on insider trading). You sat in on a Apple conf call? Pls do tell!
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Sorry Ohenri. No conference call, no inside information. Just a hunch that Apple stock could take off because of a superior product and doing the right things. And in spite of all the doom and gloom about tech and computer stocks. I hear nice things about Apple products from unlikely sources. Financially, I think they have some good margins at this time.
In Jan, 1984 I bought the original 128 Mac for big, expensive bucks. It was flown in from California within a week of introduction. At the same time, I bought the stock and almost paid for the Mac entirely with profits when I sold out.
Six years ago I bought my present Mac. It was a leap of faith to choose Apple over the other kind, and it was a tough decision. I prayed a lot, bought a Mac that worked out beautifully for me. And I just put a 1989 program in use again that works 100% - can you do that with Windows?
Now it is time for another computer, and this time I have no doubts - it is Mac all the way. The stock? Very low value now, Apple looking good, the tech sector is down but not out. Apple may have bottomed, so would you rather follow the crowd, listen to the "analysts", and wait to see the price higher before buying? At this price, it looks good to me. But looking at the comments above, maybe I am kidding myself. Or am I?
$12 of Apple's stock price is what they are worth in cash. That means you can buy this cult company, with no debt, tons of cash and a loyal following unmatched by any business in the world, for about $2!!!
Stock purchases for our pet products are OK and occasionally make money (witness Harley-Davidson, where "make money" should be replaced with "make bags of money" *). If that is what you want, go ahead but realise that you are doing it for reasons that are hardly sound investment decisions. At one time (20 years ago) Apple stock was one of those rocketing investments, but now they are a mainstream firm.
Apple stock, examined as an investment, doesn't look as promising. Apple consistently is undervalued so there always seems to be good upside, but in general the market doesn't ever value it as high as fundamentals suggest.
Those who can afford to work the price fluctuations may find it more attractive, as it does have a fair amount of price variation over time. In order to recover your brokerage fees and still make a profit, you need a fairly hefty position. Buy low, sell high, etc. The problem for anyone who loves Macs is your own emotions may get in the way of a sound decision.
MacWorld Expo generally raises Apple stock price a certain amount, so this coming week may be a poor time to buy, unless you can get in on the low side.
As was already pointed out, the stock price has very little downside (if it were to fall below, say $10 then it should attract vultures which should cause the price to rise on takeover rumours).
Care must always be taken when the outcome may mean losing your shirt, so no guarantees with stocks.
If you plan to invest over the long term (anything 5 years or less is short term) then Apple may be a better bet. Still, since investing is about making money, there are a number of good stocks out there that should outperform Apple.
My opinion only. Do tons of your own research, please.
It's important to realise that stock is only worth what a real investor with real money is willing to pay you when you want to sell. Sometimes nobody will buy, and sometimes everyone wants it, but until the cash is in your broker's hand, it's pure speculation. Stock prices in your newspaper are pure history and do not represent what today's value is, only what someone else thought it was worth a moment ago.
* the next time you see a 1984 Harley, consider if the owner had bought the equivalent amount of stock, he would have about a half million dollars worth of stock today.